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Immigration boosted Trump in the election. Now, it may drag the GOP down.

Immigration was a winning campaign issue for Donald Trump in 2024 and undergirded his approval ratings early in his presidency. But what had been a source of political strength may now be turning into a liability for the president 鈥� and, potentially, for Republican lawmakers who back his hard-line policies on sending federal agents to cities to hunt for immigrants with statuses under scrutiny.

The ongoing tumult in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, where an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer fatally shot a resident in her car in disputed circumstances, has further eroded Mr. Trump鈥檚 poll standings. While his approval rating on immigration is still higher than that of Democratic President Joe Biden , some 6 in 10 voters now express disapproval of Mr. Trump鈥檚 approach, of .

A Reuters poll taken after the shooting , down from a peak of 50% in February 2025. Likewise, a new released Thursday found that 58% of voters disapproved of Mr. Trump鈥檚 performance on immigration, and 61% said ICE鈥檚 tactics have 鈥済one too far.鈥�

Voters are still , and many give Mr. Trump credit for achieving that in the first months of his presidency. Notably, while the president鈥檚 ratings have dropped, Republicans in Congress still hold on handling immigration, according to a Wall Street Journal tracking poll. (The GOP advantage on border security is a whopping 28 points.) And Democrats only hold a in the New York Times-Siena poll鈥檚 generic matchup of congressional candidates, which is hardly insurmountable for the GOP as the party looks toward the 2026 midterm elections.

But as federal agents continue to surge in cities far from the southern border, the violence around deportation-related arrests appears to be reframing the issue for many voters.

Even some people who support a tough line on deportations have growing concerns about how federal agents are acting, says Dante Scala, a politics professor at the University of New Hampshire. The widely circulated videos of the shooting of Renee Good, a mother whose car had been partially blocking a street in Minneapolis, may be a turning point in how voters think about immigration policy, particularly as it affects their own lives.

鈥淟ooking at what鈥檚 happening in Minnesota, [voters are being] confronted with the idea that this force called ICE appears to be deployed against them, or people like them, and that, I think, changes things,鈥� says Professor Scala, who studies presidential voting patterns.

An 鈥渦njustified鈥� shooting in most voters鈥� eyes

Polls show that Americans are divided over the noisy and at times disruptive protests that have erupted in cities where ICE and other federal agencies are deployed. found 47% approval and 44% disapproval.

A majority of respondents, however, say that the shooting of Ms. Good wasn鈥檛 justified, according to of registered voters. Eight in 10 respondents said they had watched videos of the shooting: Fifty-three percent found it unjustified, 35% said it was justified, and 12% didn鈥檛 express an opinion. Views were largely aligned with party affiliation: Seventy-seven percent of Republicans said the shooting was justified.

Podcaster Joe Rogan, a political independent who has in the past expressed support for Mr. Trump, . 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 want militarized people in the streets just roaming around, snatching people up, many of which turn out to actually be U.S. citizens that just don鈥檛 have their papers on them,鈥� he said.

Mr. Trump has rejected criticism of ICE and its agents. He says that ICE , which is why crime rates are falling. (Data on immigrant arrests in major cities .) And he argues that voters would 鈥渟upport the Patriots of ICE鈥� if they knew 鈥渢he facts.鈥�

Homeland Security officials say protesters are making it unsafe for federal agents to operate and are impeding lawful immigration operations. Vice President JD Vance, in Minneapolis on Thursday, pleaded for more cooperation from local officials. 鈥淚t would make our lives a lot easier, it would make our officers a lot safer, and it would make Minneapolis much less chaotic,鈥� he said.

Civil rights groups say citizens are exercising their constitutional rights and have been .

Last week, a federal judge in Minnesota blocked federal agents from arresting, pepper-spraying, or retaliating against peaceful protesters and observers. On Wednesday, , at least for now.

To Michael Brodkorb, a conservative from Eagan, a town south of Minneapolis-St. Paul, the recent fatal shooting of Ms. Good by ICE was deeply concerning. 鈥淚鈥檓 actually surprised that more people haven鈥檛 gotten hurt,鈥� he says.

While ICE should remove the 鈥渨orst of the worst,鈥� he says federal enforcement operations in the Twin Cities don鈥檛 seem to reflect that priority. Instead, Mr. Brodkorb thinks the street-level show of force is 鈥渕eant to show the power of the presidency, above anything else.鈥�

Mr. Brodkorb, , says the optics are becoming politically costly for his party. 鈥淚鈥檓 trying to figure out how, when all is said and done, there is any path for Republicans in this state to succeed,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 just don鈥檛 see it.鈥�

Other Republicans note that the party recently recruited to run for the state鈥檚 open Senate seat this fall. And they say the state鈥檚 ongoing multibillion-dollar fraud scandal will give them a strong issue to run on.

Still, for Republican lawmakers seeking to defend a razor-thin House majority in November鈥檚 midterms, a backlash against Mr. Trump鈥檚 immigration policy could be damaging.

GOP leadership immigration enforcement operations and echoed its assertions that ICE is deporting criminals and that its agents are acting lawfully. Last year, Congress for ICE to expand its detention facilities, hire more agents, and buy more equipment.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 not who we are as Americans鈥�

Matt Wylie, a Republican strategist based in South Carolina, warns that his party could lose the narrative over public safety as voters watch more videos of and . 鈥淭hat鈥檚 not who we are as Americans,鈥� he says.

Before the Minnesota deployment, the administration could claim it was delivering on what most voters say they want: secure borders and the deportation of violent criminals, says Mr. Wylie.

But that might not hold up in November. 鈥淭his will be a case study in how to screw up a winning issue and make it so toxic that it will be hard for Republicans to win.鈥�

Pushback from voters against what they perceive as an administration鈥檚 excesses is a familiar 鈥渢hermostatic鈥� pattern, says Matt Grossmann, a political scientist at Michigan State University who directs the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research. Under President Biden, voters responded negatively to what they saw as a lack of border security. But now, it is the Trump administration鈥檚 approach that鈥檚 giving voters second thoughts.

Public opinion 鈥渦sually reacts against the direction of policy,鈥� says Professor Grossmann. 鈥淭he public often says, 鈥楾hings have gone too far.鈥欌��

During the first Trump presidency, polling showed a backlash against immigration enforcement when migrant children were being held in what critics described as 鈥渃ages鈥� at the border, he notes. That backlash helped Democrats win back control of Congress in the 2018 midterms.

Last month, Marcus Penny, a progressive who lives in St. Louis Park, a Minneapolis suburb, began volunteering to escort kids from class after he learned of federal agents near his children鈥檚 elementary school. He says classroom windows are now covered to shield students from viewing federal agents across the street. (School officials in another suburban district .)

There鈥檚 a 鈥渓arger and larger circle of people who feel unsafe around ICE, myself included,鈥� says Mr. Penny, a parent-teacher organization member. He鈥檚 not against all immigration enforcement, he says, but the aggressive, widespread enforcement 鈥� seemingly beyond targeted arrests 鈥� is interrupting students鈥� access to public school.

鈥淭hey deserve to be learning. They deserve to be kids,鈥� he says.

Sarah Matusek reported from Minneapolis, and Simon Montlake from Boston.