Immigration has been a winning issue for Trump. This week may be a pivotal test.
| Los Angeles
Immigration is Donald Trump鈥檚 signature issue. It propelled him from Trump Tower to the Oval Office in 2016 and, along with the economy, again in 2024. But a question looms over his recent actions in Los Angeles: Will they cement his support as a can-do president on immigration? Or will he lose supporters due to overreach?
A cautionary tale lies in President Trump鈥檚 first term, when his 鈥渮ero-tolerance鈥� policy on illegal border crossings resulted in migrant children being separated from their parents. A public outcry arose over 鈥渒ids in cages鈥� and helped lead Democrats to victory in the 2018 midterms 鈥� then to Joe Biden鈥檚 win two years later. And yet, a big reason for Mr. Biden鈥檚 downfall and Mr. Trump鈥檚 comeback was a surge in illegal migration.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a split here,鈥� says David Byler, chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, a market research and polling firm based in Arizona, a swing state that helped elect Mr. Biden, and then reversed course and went for Mr. Trump last year. When the issue is border security, Mr. Trump does well, says Mr. Byler. When the focus is on the inhumane treatment of migrants, especially of people already here, he does worse. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a split that you really need to keep your eye on.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Donald Trump鈥檚 political success revolves in part around his tough stance on immigration. His response to protests in Los Angeles will test whether he maintains public support.
At least in the short term, the Los Angeles situation plays to the president鈥檚 strengths of national security and immigration enforcement, says Mike Madrid, a California-based Republican consultant.
鈥淭he images coming out of Los Angeles are helpful for him,鈥� says Mr. Madrid, who is also an expert on the Latino vote. 鈥淚t ties very neatly the ideas about law and order, about an invasion, about people鈥檚 loyalties to foreign countries over the United States of America, about violence and safety.鈥�
After isolated anti-immigration enforcement protests and violence last week, President Trump ordered the deployment of the National Guard to the Los Angeles area over the objections of Gov. Gavin Newsom. The governor is challenging the deployment of the guard and about 700 Marines in court. A hearing is set for Thursday.
Meanwhile, peaceful protests have grown and spread to other U.S. cities, while instigators and opportunists have looted, graffitied, and attacked law enforcement. On Tuesday, Mayor Karen Bass announced an indefinite dusk-to-dawn curfew in a square mile of downtown. The Los Angeles police, with reinforcements from regional law enforcement and the California Highway Patrol, have arrested hundreds of people.聽Many were for unlawful assembly or curfew violation.
It鈥檚 too early to tell whether, in the long run, Mr. Trump is overplaying his hand in Los Angeles or with immigration generally, says Mr. Madrid. But immigration has become the president鈥檚 strong suit and his last remaining issue, where he鈥檚 got a majority of support, he says.
Exploiting Democrats鈥� bungles
It鈥檚 a weak issue for Democrats, who are also at a disadvantage without a leader in their midst 鈥� though Governor Newsom is seizing that role as attention focuses on him and his state. Democrats show a 鈥渞eal lack of understanding鈥� about the saliency of the president鈥檚 core arguments, says Mr. Madrid, while 鈥淢ost Americans still believe he鈥檚 heading in the right direction, doing the right thing on this.鈥�
In a conducted June 4-6, some 54% of Americans said they approved of President Trump鈥檚 deportation policy, and 50% approved of how he鈥檚 handling immigration. In聽a March , 66% of adults said arrests of immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally should be allowed at protests and rallies.聽
Since taking office, the president has, among other things, ended 鈥渃atch and release,鈥� in which unauthorized migrants apprehended at the border are released into the community to await immigration hearings; ended a humanitarian parole program for immigrants from distressed countries; deployed the military along the southern border; encouraged 鈥渟elf-deportation鈥�; and introduced a new travel ban that bars nationals from 12 countries.
鈥淗e鈥檚 doing something that a lot of politicians do not do. He鈥檚 keeping his promise,鈥� says Ron Flores, a Republican who is active in local political and education issues in Santa Ana, a heavily Hispanic community not far from Los Angeles. 鈥淭his is one of the reasons why he won.鈥� Santa Ana has also seen anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) protests that escalated into violence.
Mr. Flores says Latinos who voted for Mr. Trump are 鈥渢ired鈥� of Democratic tolerance of illegal immigration 鈥� from the flow of migrants under President Biden, to Mr. Newsom鈥檚 expansion of Medicaid in California to provide health insurance coverage to unauthorized migrants. That鈥檚 something the governor鈥檚 having to dial back, given a state budget deficit.
Sometimes, says Mr. Flores, he鈥檚 concerned about the humanity aspect of immigration enforcement, and that the president might be overplaying his hand. The Santa Ana local runs a food bank that feeds 1,000 people a month, no questions asked. Many of his clients are in the country without authorization. And yet, someone has to make the tough decisions on enforcement, he points out.
鈥淔amilies are going to be separated, and that鈥檚 not new,鈥� he says. 鈥淭rump is doing something that needs to get done. That鈥檚 why millions of people voted for him.鈥�
Fewer border crossings, fewer deportations
Since Mr. Trump took office, illegal border crossings have dropped to a level much lower than under the previous administration. According to Customs and Border Protection data, Border Patrol encounters, a proxy for crossings, were down 94% in February, March, and April along the southern border compared with the same period last year.
However, actual ICE deportations appear to be fewer under President Trump than under his predecessor so far. Approximately were deported by ICE in February, March, and April of this year, according to NBC News, compared with 68,138 ICE removals for the same months last year under President Biden, However, the Department of Homeland Security comprehensive monthly immigration enforcement statistics, which include deportations, since Mr. Trump鈥檚 inauguration.
With the administration falling behind its reported goal of 1 million deportations this year, officials last week demanded that federal agents arrest 3,000 people a day, which would amount to more than a million a year. Immigrant advocates and many Democratic politicians strenuously object to sweeps, such as those that have happened in recent weeks at Home Depot, workplaces, and courts where migrants go to keep court appointments.
鈥淧eople are terrified,鈥� Mayor Bass said about the sweeps.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake believes the president is at a 鈥渃rossroads鈥� on several issues, including immigration, with which, she says, he went too far, too fast. 鈥淚mmigration is what holds his coalition together,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut the way he鈥檚 doing it, he鈥檚 alienating a lot of women, a lot of Latinos, and you鈥檙e seeing some backlash there.鈥�
Indeed, cracks are starting to show. A revealed that a plurality of adults 鈥� 45% 鈥� disapprove of the president deploying National Guard soldiers to the Los Angeles area in response to protests over the federal government鈥檚 immigration enforcement. A 鈥� 47% 鈥� feels the same about the deployment of Marines, though a large chunk, around 18%, is 鈥渦nsure鈥� about both cases.
A national looks more definitive. Taken June 5-9, the poll of registered voters showed 54% disapprove of the president's handling of immigration, 43% approve, and only 3% are not sure. The results are similar on the subject of deportations.
Challenges of military escalation and immigration reform
The risk for President Trump, says Ms. Lake, is the 鈥渕ilitarization鈥� of immigration 鈥� and his presidency 鈥� as he prepares to celebrate his birthday and the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army with a military parade in Washington on Saturday.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a through line here from LA to the military parade,鈥� she says. America doesn鈥檛 escalate things by sending in the military, she says. It doesn鈥檛 celebrate milestones with tanks 鈥� it brings out the high school bands. 鈥淭his is just not how we respond to things.鈥�
鈥淲hat Democrats have to make this about is ... the inappropriate use of the military against civilians,鈥� she says. And they need to offer alternatives 鈥� an orderly border process and a road map to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants already in the U.S.
But immigration reform has been made 鈥渉arder, if not impossible鈥� because of Mr. Trump鈥檚 words and actions, says Maria Echaveste, a former senior White House official under President Bill Clinton and an expert in immigration and Latin America.
The politics around immigration have become more polarized since her days in the White House, says Ms. Echaveste, now at the University of California, Berkeley School of Law. And yet, given demographic shifts and other issues, the U.S. has a great need for immigrant workers.
鈥淭he reality is, substantively, we have to update our immigration laws,鈥� she says.
Staff writer Caitlin Babcock contributed reporting from Washington.
Editor's note: This story, originally published June 12, has been revised to clarify that President Trump ordered the deployment of the National Guard to the Los Angeles area over the objections of California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
