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How Tuesday鈥檚 elections could scramble both parties鈥� redistricting plans

Tuesday鈥檚 election results have given Democrats a boost of confidence about their party鈥檚 ability to win control of Congress next year. And that momentum shift might affect calculations on both sides of the aisle, as unprecedented redistricting efforts play out in states across the country.

At least two states had votes with direct bearing on Democratic redistricting. In California, Proposition 50, the ballot measure allowing state lawmakers to counter redistricting efforts by Republicans in other states and draw a new congressional map with five pick-up opportunities for Democrats, . And Virginia, where Democrats increased their majority in the House of Delegates, is now likely to seek voter approval for a redrawn map that could net Democrats as many as three additional seats.

But Tuesday鈥檚 results might also prompt Republicans to rethink the wisdom of creating aggressive new maps that would eliminate Democratic districts 鈥� but also dilute heavily Republican ones 鈥� in order to create more districts that lean Republican. If the Democratic turnout energy and vote margins seen in this week鈥檚 elections are an early glimpse of next year鈥檚 midterms, then Republicans鈥� efforts to redraw themselves into a more secure House majority might not go as planned.

鈥淩epublicans are pursuing a highly risky strategy on redistricting,鈥� wrote former Republican and independent congressman Justin Amash of Michigan, . 鈥淏y diluting the GOP base, you are less likely to win any given seat, so the worst time to redraw is during a strong [Democratic] cycle.鈥�

Experts say Republicans appear unlikely to wind up creating a 鈥渄ummymander鈥� 鈥� the term for when a party redraws a map too aggressively and it backfires, allowing the other party to win seats. In Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, the four states where legislators have already redrawn maps to add a total of nine new GOP-leaning districts, Republicans probably won鈥檛 end up with worse outcomes than if they had not redistricted at all.

But they might end up winning fewer of these new districts than they had hoped, says David Wasserman, senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report. And other states that have faced White House pressure to redistrict, such as Indiana, Florida, and Kansas, might now be dissuaded from doing so. Incumbent Republicans in districts that President Donald Trump won by 20 points might be looking at new districts where Mr. Trump鈥檚 margin of victory was in the low double digits 鈥� still an uphill climb for a Democratic challenger but not an impossible one in a wave election. And they might not be willing to cut it that close.

鈥淓ven that might not be agreeable to Republicans under these circumstances,鈥� says Mr. Wasserman. 鈥淩epublicans might tread more carefully.鈥�

Competitive districts in Texas

Congressional maps are typically redrawn every 10 years, following the release of updated population estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. But an unprecedented mid-cycle redistricting effort took off this past summer after Mr. Trump urged Texas Republicans to create five more GOP-leaning districts.

Texas passed its new map in August, following a walkout by Democratic legislators, who decamped to Chicago in protest for about two weeks before returning home. And while the new map definitely gives Republicans an advantage, not all of Texas鈥� newly gerrymandered seats are locks for the GOP 鈥� especially if Democratic turnout is high.

Two of the five newly drawn congressional districts are solidly Republican: the 9th and 32nd. The latter went from a district that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by a 24-point margin in 2024 to .

Then there is the new 35th District, which was redrawn without parts of Austin and instead now expands into the rural and suburban areas southeast of San Antonio. The district had voted for Ms. Harris by 34 points in 2024, but under its new boundaries would have gone for Mr. Trump by 10 points. 鈥淚f Democrats find a good candidate, that鈥檚 not an impossible seat to win,鈥� says Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia鈥檚 Center for Politics.

Finally, there are the 34th and 28th Districts in South Texas. Currently represented by Democratic Reps. Vincente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, respectively, these are districts that Mr. Trump won in 2024 by five and seven points. Under the redrawn lines, Mr. Trump鈥檚 margin of victory in both would have been about 10 points, according to Cook Political Report calculations.

But there鈥檚 no guarantee that the Republican candidate in any of these districts next year will perform nearly as well as Mr. Trump did in 2024. In the last two districts in particular, the president saw some of his biggest swings in the country because of gains he made among Latinos, who make up to of the voters there. And Tuesday鈥檚 election results suggest those gains might not hold. In New Jersey鈥檚 gubernatorial race, seen as a test of Mr. Trump鈥檚 standing among Latino voters, Democrat Mikie Sherrill .

鈥淪ome of the Republican gains with Latinos will last, but not all of them,鈥� says Mr. Kondik, suggesting that these two districts could be 鈥渕ore defendable鈥� after this week鈥檚 results. 鈥淚n 2018, the Democrats did win a handful of seats Trump had won by double digits, and I think it鈥檚 quite possible they will next year, and Cuellar or Gonzalez could survive.鈥�

More motivated to redraw lines

The fate of these Texas districts, as well as those in other Southern states, might also be impacted by the Supreme Court鈥檚 upcoming ruling on a challenge to the Voting Rights Act. Passed during the Civil Rights era to ensure equal access to the ballot box, the law also prohibits electoral practices that dilute the votes of minority communities, such that they are effectively locked out of power. Texas鈥� new map immediately triggered accusations of Voting Rights Act violations, because the new districts . But if the court finds it unconstitutional to intentionally create majority-minority districts, Republicans could redraw seats in their favor across the South.

Some analysts suggest the GOP might be more motivated to pursue mid-cycle redistricting in the wake of Tuesday鈥檚 results. Democratic victories across the board could make Republicans feel 鈥渕ore desperate,鈥� says Mr. Kondik, and conclude that gerrymandering might be their only chance to keep control of the House. At a news conference on Thursday, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana mentioned redistricting as a reason he still feels bullish about his party鈥檚 ability to maintain control of the lower chamber.

But Democrats could be more motivated as well.

Virginia, where Democrats , appears ready to follow California鈥檚 lead in redrawing its maps, adding two or possibly three Democratic seats to counter Republican efforts. The newly elected House of Delegates needs to approve the move before a constitutional amendment is presented to voters.

Still, others appear to be drawing different conclusions from Tuesday鈥檚 election results. that this week鈥檚 sweeping victories demonstrate that Democrats can win without needing to 鈥渞ig the system.鈥�

On Tuesday, the Republican speaker in Kansas announced to call a special session to address redistricting, though the matter could still be addressed later.

鈥淎 lot of people are looking for a reason to stop鈥� the redistricting arms race, says Julia Vaughn, executive director at Common Cause Indiana, an anti-gerrymandering organization. While Indiana legislators are a 鈥渃autious bunch鈥� and have been wary of the White House鈥檚 pressure to redraw the state鈥檚 two Democratic districts from blue to red, she says, Republicans there are set to consider new maps .

Still, Ms. Vaughn predicts they鈥檒l think carefully in the wake of Tuesday鈥檚 results.

In trying to eliminate Democratic seats, 鈥渢hey could overplay their hand and make life more difficult for Republican incumbents in other parts of the state. ... Tuesday will cause that kind of thinking to weigh on the minds of folks here,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a balloon here in Indiana. You squeeze it and the [Democratic] voters have to come out somewhere.鈥�