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For Biden and Trump, debate offers a rare chance to change perceptions

For incumbent presidents, the first debate of the general election campaign is often a flop.聽

After four years in a deferential White House bubble, shielded from any real primary competition to hone their debating skills, many incumbents come across as rusty and out of touch. Past examples range from President Ronald Reagan鈥檚 rambling first debate performance against former Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984, to President Barack Obama鈥檚 lackluster first outing against former Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012, or even President Donald Trump鈥檚 overly aggressive first face-off against former Vice President Joe Biden in 2020.聽

What makes Thursday鈥檚 debate so unusual is that both candidates may essentially be in the 鈥渋ncumbent鈥� role. President Biden, despite ongoing concerns from some Democrats about his age, faced only nominal opposition this year and had no difficulty amassing enough delegates to secure the Democratic nomination.聽And despite losing reelection four years ago,聽Mr. Trump never lost his status as the Republican Party鈥檚 leader. He handily dispatched a field of challengers for the GOP nomination, despite refusing to participate in any of the primary debates and holding relatively few in-person campaign events.聽

As a result, when they walk into the CNN studio in Atlanta, both men will arguably be facing their first significant test of the campaign. The debate is notably early by historic standards 鈥� and with just one other debate on the schedule before November, the stakes couldn鈥檛 be higher.聽

鈥淚t鈥檚 very hard to stay sharp if you鈥檙e not constantly being challenged at something like this,鈥� says Spencer Critchley, a communications strategist and media adviser to Mr. Obama鈥檚 2008 and 2012 campaigns. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 just think about it to stay good at it; you have to practice.鈥澛犅�

Mr. Biden has been sequestered at Camp David since last Thursday, preparing with advisers. Mr. Trump鈥檚 approach to debate preparation has been less clear. But both campaigns have been trying to raise expectations for the other side, with Mr. Trump even suggesting, with zero evidence, that the president might take drugs to boost his performance.

Although Mr. Trump has held a small lead in most battleground states for much of the year, recent polls show the race has narrowed in the wake of the former president鈥檚 felony conviction in the New York hush money case, and is now a dead heat nationally. Indeed, the fact that the Trump campaign so quickly accepted the Biden campaign鈥檚 proposed timing and terms for this debate, strategists say, suggests both sides may be hoping for a reset.聽

鈥淭he fact that this debate is in June tells us how unusual this cycle is,鈥� says Alan Schroeder, author of the book 鈥淧residential Debates: Risky Business on the Campaign Trail.鈥� Typically the first presidential debate comes聽in September or October, whereas this debate is occurring before either candidate has officially secured his party鈥檚 nomination. 鈥淭his first debate has the chance to shake things up and start moving voters in one direction or the other.鈥�

While a plurality of voters identify themselves as independents, polling suggests that the number of true independents who don鈥檛 lean one way or the other is actually in the . But as Jordan Tama, a political expert at American University and a national security adviser to Mr. Obama鈥檚 2008 campaign, pointed out in a call with reporters Tuesday, debates can be critical for this small population who 鈥渢ips our elections.鈥澛�

To try to tip this tiny pool of swing voters in their direction, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump will have very different, if not opposite, mandates Thursday evening.

Given that the top issue dogging Mr. Biden鈥檚 reelection is his age 鈥� a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that more than half of the voters who supported him in 2020 say he is 鈥溾�� now to be an effective president 鈥� his priority will be demonstrating that he has the vigor and stamina for four more years. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, who was panned after his first 2020 debate with Mr. Biden for incessantly interrupting, will need to show undecided voters that he can be serious and statesmanlike.聽

鈥淭he No. 1 question for Biden is, 鈥業s he up to the job?鈥� This debate is the best opportunity he鈥檒l have to show that,鈥� says David Kochel, a Republican who served as senior strategist for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush鈥檚 2016 presidential campaign. 鈥淭rump needs to show that he can connect with people who aren鈥檛 just rally-goers,鈥� by talking less about stolen elections and more about the price of groceries. 鈥淚f he can stick to the main theme and repeat Biden鈥檚 failures, I think he probably has the easier job of the two of them.鈥�

The 90-minute debate will be a stamina test for both men, the two oldest major-party candidates in U.S. history, who haven鈥檛 had to face one another in four years. Unlike in past debates, mics will be muted after a candidate鈥檚 allotted response time, preventing interruptions, and there will be no studio audience.聽聽

Given that success in debates often means exceeding expectations, the Trump campaign has pivoted in recent days from mocking Mr. Biden as feeble and incompetent to suggesting he will have a strong night. 鈥淚 assume he鈥檚 going to be somebody that will be a worthy debater,鈥� Mr. Trump said in a recent interview on the 鈥淎ll-In鈥� podcast. Similarly, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who is reportedly being considered as running mate for Mr. Trump, said on CNN over the weekend that Mr. Biden is able to 鈥渟tep up鈥� when needed.聽

From the Democratic side, former Biden White House communications director Kate Bedingfield suggested聽聽that the muted mic rule may help Mr. Trump, who turned some voters off with the 鈥渁ngry, uncivil way鈥� he conducted himself in past debates, talking over moderators and opponents.聽鈥淚 think the Donald Trump [who] is going to show up next week is going to be the most disciplined version of Donald Trump,鈥� said Ms. Bedingfield. 鈥淗e knows this is a big stage.鈥�

Still, between the two men, it鈥檚 Mr. Biden who may have the most to lose, says Mr. Kochel, the Republican strategist.聽If聽the president聽has a bad moment, such as freezing up or mumbling something incomprehensible, the panic among Democrats will be 鈥渨hite hot,鈥� he says.聽

鈥淭hese debates are often a test of overcoming the negative perceptions that exist about you,鈥� Mr. Schroeder adds.聽鈥滱nd let鈥檚 face it, they are both elderly men, and it鈥檚 hard to change how people perceive you. But that鈥檚 what they both have to do.鈥�