Biden should drop out! No, he shouldn鈥檛! Debate rages.
| Washington
With no major challenger for his party鈥檚 nomination, President Joe Biden might have expected to be coasting through the primary season right now.
Instead, he鈥檚 facing loud calls from various thought leaders 鈥撀爄ncluding prominent liberals 鈥� to drop out of the 2024 race, either soon or at the summer convention.
As these critics see it, Mr. Biden, at age 81, is too old 鈥撀燼nd more important, looks and sounds it 鈥� and is in real danger of losing to the likely Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. The polls suggest as much. Some add that while Mr. Biden has a solid record to run on, it鈥檚 time to pass the torch to the next generation of Democratic leaders.聽
Why We Wrote This
President Joe Biden is facing calls from erstwhile allies to exit the race, amid concerns he could lose in November. Others say the criticism is unhelpful 鈥� and unwarranted.
And, they say, there鈥檚 still enough time for Democrats to find a new candidate before November. New York Times columnists Ezra Klein, a liberal, and Ross Douthat, an anti-Trump conservative, have argued separately this month that Mr. Biden should announce he鈥檚 stepping down at the August convention, setting off a frenzied contest in Chicago to select a new nominee.聽
That鈥檚 what political conventions were originally designed for,聽:聽鈥渉andling intraparty competition.鈥澛燤r. Klein echoes that point, adding that there鈥檚 a聽聽in the Democratic Party 鈥� governors, senators, Cabinet secretaries, not to mention Vice President Kamala Harris 鈥� who could vie for the nomination.聽
But there鈥檚 a reason the parties ditched the 鈥渟moke-filled room鈥� method of selecting nominees in favor of letting the voters decide via primaries and caucuses: It鈥檚 a much more democratic system. And while a brokered convention might be a great story for the media, it could easily backfire on the party.聽
Mr. Biden鈥檚 lack of competition for the Democratic nomination also likely indicates that the party鈥檚 next-generation politicians 鈥� from California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro 鈥� all saw taking on an incumbent president as a losing battle.聽And falling short in the 2024 primaries, while possibly damaging the current president politically, could harm their prospects for 2028.聽
Then there鈥檚 the not-small matter of Vice President Harris, the nation鈥檚 first female vice president and a woman of color. Ms. Harris鈥� favorability numbers are lower than Mr. Biden鈥檚. While she would be expected to vie for the nomination in the event Mr. Biden dropped out, there鈥檚 a real possibility she would not emerge as the nominee. Regardless, a sudden competition for the nomination could cause an ugly rift within the party.
Some observers describe all the hand-wringing as yet another example of Democrats playing to type and panicking prematurely about the polls.聽
鈥淒emocrats do freak out,鈥� says Larry Sabato, a veteran political analyst at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. 鈥淭here are certainly Republicans who do this, but not to this degree.鈥澛�
That doesn鈥檛 mean the comments aren鈥檛 notable, though 鈥� or that the concerns aren鈥檛 warranted. Several top Democratic strategists have aired startlingly blunt assessments about Mr. Biden鈥檚 prospects 鈥� including David Axelrod and James Carville, former campaign strategists for ex-Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, respectively.聽
Last fall, Mr. Axelrod posted polling data showing Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump in most battleground states and suggested Mr. Biden should strongly consider not running again. 鈥淭he stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore,鈥澛�.
Mr. Biden was widely reported as having some choice words for Mr. Axelrod, whom he knew while serving as Mr. Obama鈥檚 vice president. Tensions between the Obama and Biden camps have been long-standing.聽
Mr. Carville has also publicly questioned Mr. Biden鈥檚 ability to win for months. The day before the Super Bowl, he appeared on CNN and said that the president鈥檚 decision not to do a pregame interview for the second straight year was a sign that either he or his staff didn鈥檛 have much confidence in his ability to pull it off. Biden advisers聽 they thought Americans probably wanted a break from politics during the game.聽
Lately, other Democrats have begun pushing back more forcefully against all this friendly fire, arguing that Mr. Biden is not only going to be the party鈥檚 nominee but is also, hands-down, their best candidate.
鈥淔or a number of reasons 鈥� including the 2024 campaign calendar, the Biden-Harris war chest, and the president鈥檚 unique leadership skills and accomplishments 鈥� Biden remains the Democrats鈥� strongest option,鈥� writes Jennifer Palmieri, communications director for Democrat Hillary Clinton鈥檚 2016 presidential campaign, .
In the end, Mr. Biden dropping out of the 2024 race is 鈥渘ot gonna happen,鈥� says Mike Mikus, a Democratic consultant based in suburban Pittsburgh. The Democratic voters he knows who might in theory prefer a different nominee are also strongly opposed to Mr. Trump 鈥� a factor that鈥檚 likely to work to Mr. Biden鈥檚 benefit as the general election campaign kicks into gear.
The president isn鈥檛 that far behind Mr. Trump in head-to-head polls 鈥� just on average.聽And Democratic organizers say 鈥渃ounter-mobilization鈥� 鈥� getting voters to turn out against Mr. Trump as much as for Mr. Biden 鈥� will be key.聽
Plus, Mr. Mikus adds, 鈥渕embers of my sportsmen鈥檚 club don鈥檛 care what Ezra Klein thinks.鈥�
