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Pressed on abortion, Republican candidates adapt

When picking a presidential nominee for 2024, Republican voter Shawn Walsh鈥檚 main concern is 鈥渆lectability.鈥� Which means, he adds, that one of his main concerns is also abortion.聽

鈥淎bortion to me is technically not a huge issue, but I know it鈥檚 a huge issue come voting,鈥� says Mr. Walsh, a gunsmith and Army veteran from Claremont, New Hampshire, ahead of a campaign event for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at a local senior center. 鈥淚f the midterms weren鈥檛 an eye-opener for the Republicans, I don鈥檛 know what is because we should have won that, hands down. That should have been a landslide across the country.鈥�

Last fall, in the first congressional elections after the Supreme Court overturned a nationwide right to abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson, Republicans fell far short of their anticipated 鈥渞ed wave,鈥� winning only a slim majority in the U.S. House and failing to retake the Senate. Abortion was a leading issue for voters, according to . Mr. Walsh says he watched the impact in his state firsthand: Friends and family who had always voted Republican voted against state candidates with hard-line anti-abortion stances.聽

Now, almost a year out from the presidential election, many Republicans are beginning to worry about a 2022 repeat in 2024, as abortion rights seem likely to again be a central concern for voters.聽

Polls show a close race between President Joe Biden and top Republican presidential candidates, with independent voters 鈥� and suburban women 鈥� likely to play a crucial role. Large majorities of both of these groups say they are less likely to back an anti-abortion candidate, .

Most GOP primary voters, however, remain strongly opposed to abortion 鈥� a reality that has some 2024 presidential candidates gingerly trying to thread the needle on one of the nation鈥檚 most divisive issues.

Ms. Haley in particular has been nudging her party to take a more moderate stance 鈥� or at least, a softer tone. On campaign stops across early-voting states, she asks voters to give abortion 鈥渢he respect it deserves鈥� and look for policies where both sides can agree. And while her messaging has been criticized by some as vague, it also seems to be working: Ms. Haley has seen a mini-surge in support since the first GOP primary debate in late August, where candidates spent than about any other issue.

On Sunday, former President Donald Trump, the dominant front-runner in the primary race, raised eyebrows when he also struck a more moderate note on abortion. In on NBC鈥檚 鈥淢eet the Press,鈥� he claimed credit for the Supreme Court鈥檚 overturning of Roe v. Wade, but also called the six-week ban signed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 鈥渁 terrible thing, a terrible mistake.鈥�

鈥淚 think the Republicans speak very inarticulately about this subject,鈥� he continued. 鈥淥ther than certain parts of the country, you can鈥檛 鈥� you鈥檙e not going to win on this issue.鈥� Mr. Trump said he would be 鈥渁 mediator鈥� between both sides to determine at what point and under what circumstances abortion should be illegal, insisting without elaborating that he could find a policy that is 鈥済ood for everybody.鈥�

This conciliatory tone and emphasis on consensus coming from both Mr. Trump and Ms. Haley reflect just how far the conversation has shifted over the past year and a half 鈥� including within the Republican Party. As the GOP has increasingly moved from offense to defense on the issue, some Republican voters say it鈥檚 an approach the party as a whole needs to heed.

鈥淚f we as a party don鈥檛 deal with abortion, we鈥檙e going to lose,鈥� says Mr. Walsh, who thinks Ms. Haley鈥檚 abortion stance could appeal broadly to enough of the electorate to get her to the White House. 鈥淩epublicans need to wake up.鈥�

Evolving pressures 鈥� and campaign positions

At a closed-door conference meeting in the Capitol earlier this month, a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell gave Senate Republicans a briefing that seemed intended to serve as a wake-up call. The Dobbs decision has 鈥� and shifted more people (including some Republicans) into the anti-Dobbs 鈥榩ro-choice鈥� camp,鈥� the political action committee鈥檚 report stated. Some senators reportedly left the meeting brainstorming potential new labels, that could replace the increasingly fraught 鈥減ro-life.鈥�

Unlike in the past, when conservative candidates could simply identify themselves as 鈥減ro-life鈥� without having to be specific, they are now being peppered with questions about real policy choices: Should abortion be banned at the state or federal level? After how many weeks? With or without exceptions? What about abortion pill restrictions?

At one end of the 2024 spectrum are Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who have strongly leaned into an anti-abortion message. Both candidates have endorsed a national 15-week abortion ban.

By contrast, Mr. Trump, in his 鈥淢eet the Press鈥� interview,聽declined to explicitly endorse a 15-week ban, drawing this week from Senator Scott.聽Ms. Haley has outright dismissed a national 15-week ban as unrealistic 鈥� one of the 鈥渉ard truths鈥� that she has been delivering to voters across New Hampshire and Iowa. She says聽 to send abortion back to the states.

鈥淩epublicans are kind of all over the place 鈥� either they don鈥檛 want to talk about abortion or they鈥檙e super restrictive,鈥� says GOP strategist Maura Gillespie.

With the 鈥渟uper restrictive鈥� stance seeming like a potential liability in a general election, she adds, a better way to address the issue would be to focus on broader solutions, as Ms. Haley does when she talks about child care, adoption, and access to contraception.聽聽

鈥淣ikki Haley is leading the charge on how best to have this conversation,鈥� says Ms. Gillespie. 鈥淪he鈥檚 the only female on that stage, and she鈥檚 looking at it from all angles.鈥�

Many GOP women lawmakers have been emphasizing access to contraception in counterbalance to their anti-abortion positions. Over the summer, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, , many representing competitive districts, introduced the Orally Taken Contraception Act of 2023 to improve the accessibility of over-the-counter contraceptives.

In April, South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, who calls herself pro-life, 聽to ignore a federal judge鈥檚 ruling that threatened the use of a pill used commonly for abortions.聽In an , she warned that Republicans would 鈥渓ose huge鈥� if they continue to pursue strict abortion bans with no exceptions, rather than 鈥渃ommonsense positions.鈥澛�

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think you can run, especially now, and not have to answer the question about abortion, because it鈥檚 actively in play,鈥� says Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for Women in American Politics. This is particularly the case for female candidates, she adds: 鈥淭he public sort of turns to the woman on the stage first in a conversation around abortion.鈥澛�

Ms. Haley, like most of her competitors in the 2024 presidential primary, has a history of supporting anti-abortion efforts. As governor of South Carolina in 2016, Ms. Haley signed a 20-week abortion ban, joining the with bans at the time. She has reiterated on the campaign trail and the debate stage that she is still 鈥渦napologetically pro-life,鈥� but says she favors policies 鈥渨here we can find consensus鈥� such as banning abortions later in pregnancy, which a found that about two-thirds of Americans support.

Mark Tepper, a tech salesperson from Nashua, was so impressed with Ms. Haley鈥檚 debate performance last month that he was inspired to come see her at a veterans鈥� post in Merrimack, New Hampshire. An independent who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Mr. Trump in 2020, Mr. Tepper says he鈥檚 now leaning toward Ms. Haley.

鈥淣ikki, with her position on abortion and some of the more thorny issues, she鈥檚 threading the needle correctly to win a general election,鈥� says Mr. Tepper. 鈥淪he just has to figure out how to get that hardcore 30% of the Republican Party to realize that Donald Trump doesn鈥檛 have a prayer [of being reelected].鈥�

鈥淚 don鈥檛 like wishy-washy鈥�

Yet for many of those 鈥渉ardcore鈥� Republican voters, ending access to abortion remains a top policy priority 鈥� one that has only recently gone from a distant dream to a present reality. To win the GOP nomination, a candidate still聽has to win over voters like Suzanne W. from Fremont, New Hampshire, who came to hear Mr. Pence speak at a senior center in Raymond.

Suzanne, who declined to give her last name, voted for Mr. Trump in the previous two elections and 鈥渓iked him a lot,鈥� though she wishes he was 鈥渕ore upstanding in terms of morality.鈥澛�

She describes Mr. Pence as not only a 鈥渕oral and kind person,鈥� but also one of the strongest anti-abortion candidates she鈥檚 seen in her lifetime 鈥� which is why she calls him her 鈥淣o. 1鈥� choice. Following Mr. Pence鈥檚 stump speech, during which he says 鈥淚鈥檓 pro-life and I don鈥檛 apologize for it,鈥� Suzanne tears up while thanking him for being the first vice president to speak at the聽March for Life rally in Washington.聽

鈥淚鈥檓 very pro-life, so I could never vote for a Democrat,鈥� she says afterward. But she also wouldn鈥檛 vote for Ms. Haley if she were the Republican nominee next November. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 like wishy-washy. Either you鈥檙e for abortion or you aren鈥檛.鈥澛�

Indeed, despite Ms. Haley and Mr. Trump vowing to find consensus, there is a real 鈥� and growing 鈥� gap between Republican and Democratic voters on the issue. ,聽60% of Democrats today say abortion should be legal under any circumstances, a 10-point increase over the past two years. Among Republicans, only 8% say the same, a decrease from 15% in 2021. An August poll found that 聽of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa 鈥� which holds the first GOP nominating contest 鈥� support their state鈥檚 law banning most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy.

At the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition鈥檚 fall banquet last weekend, abortion was a much-discussed topic. Candidates such as Mr. Pence and Mr. DeSantis praised abortion bans. Mr. Scott said he would redesign the tax code to provide benefits once a woman gets pregnant. Ms. Haley reiterated that she would try to 鈥渂ring people together鈥� by encouraging adoption and allowing doctors who object to abortion to abstain from providing them.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson took issue with Mr. Trump鈥檚 comments on 鈥淢eet the Press鈥� that he would find a way for both sides to 鈥渓ike me鈥� on the abortion issue.

鈥淏oth sides aren鈥檛 going to like you,鈥� . 鈥淭his is going to be a fight for life, and we鈥檝e been doing that for 40 years. You take a stand. You state your position.鈥�