Republican presidential field: One party, many brands
| Raymond, N.H.
At a senior center in Raymond, New Hampshire, last week, former Vice President Mike Pence was boasting about raising military spending under the Trump-Pence administration, while stressing the need to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. Asked the next day if Russian President Vladimir Putin was a war criminal, Mr. Pence didn鈥檛 hesitate: 鈥淲ithout question.鈥�
Not far away, at a picnic in Salem, candidate Vivek Ramaswamy offered a different take. 鈥淲e have to get the facts before we get to the bottom of that,鈥� the pharmaceutical entrepreneur聽said when asked about Mr. Putin鈥檚 status as a potential war criminal. Speaking to voters on an unusually hot September day, Mr. Ramaswamy said he聽would prioritize the homefront over involvement in foreign conflicts. 鈥淢y job is to keep us out of World War III while advancing American interests.鈥澛�
Often in presidential primaries, candidates struggle to find ways to differentiate themselves. Largely agreeing on the main issues of the day, they wind up emphasizing slight nuances or leaning on stylistic distinctions.
Why We Wrote This
Yes, Donald Trump is leading by far in polls of GOP voters. But the Republican Party is far from homogeneous, as a disparate field of presidential candidates attests.
The 2024 Republicans don鈥檛 have that problem.
From the debate stage to the campaign trail, whether they鈥檙e talking about Ukraine or abortion or the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, these candidates鈥� pitches have been so jarringly different from one another that voters might be forgiven for wondering if they鈥檙e truly from the same party.聽聽
The kaleidoscope of views on display could help the GOP attract some new supporters 鈥� including more independents, voters of color, and a younger generation that sees Reagan-style conservatism as hopelessly pass茅. At the same time, analysts say, the party is running the risk of coming across as incoherent, making it hard for voters to identify what it actually stands for. And parties that are deeply divided along policy lines often struggle at the ballot box.
鈥淲hen political scientists for the past 20-plus years have compared the Republican and Democratic parties, a common refrain has been, 鈥榃ell, the Democrats are this 鈥渂ig tent鈥� party of different constituents who don鈥檛 have much in common 鈥� union people, highly educated individuals 鈥� but they agree to join forces for the purposes of trying to win elections,鈥欌�� says David Barker, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. 鈥淏y contrast, the conventional wisdom has been that Republicans are the ideological party rowing in the same boat ... which was why people used to say that Republicans had a leg up. Now we鈥檝e really seen that turn upside down.鈥澛�
It鈥檚 the ripple effect of a realignment that started when Donald Trump captured the White House in 2016 and has yet to be fully resolved. With Mr. Trump still dominant and pushing the GOP in a more populist direction, his rivals are caught between trying to emulate him and hewing to a more traditional conservatism 鈥� or trying to somehow have it both ways.
Staking out varied positions
In her own campaign stops across the Granite State last week, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley advocated for a muscular foreign policy, similar to Mr. Pence鈥檚 pitch. But she put forward a very different message on the subject of a national abortion ban 鈥� essentially telling voters it鈥檚 not going to happen. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was in his home state dealing with Hurricane Idalia, often sounds more populist than Mr. Trump, such as in his culture war battle with Disney.聽He has expressed skepticism about the COVID-19 vaccine, while Mr. Trump recently that his decision to back the vaccine鈥檚 development, according to health officials, 鈥渟aved 100 million lives.鈥�
When it comes to Mr. Trump, the candidates have differing takes 鈥� at times, even from themselves. Ms. Haley has said he would be a weak general election candidate, 鈥渢he most disliked politician in America,鈥� while also saying she鈥檇 back him if he were the nominee. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has essentially made his entire campaign about the need to prevent Mr. Trump from recapturing the White House. Mr. Ramaswamy, on the other hand, calls Mr. Trump the best president of the 21st century.
There鈥檚 always a spectrum within parties, notes Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and New Hampshire native. But Mr. Trump fundamentally shifted the landscape for the GOP, so that even positions once seen as utterly heterodox are now 鈥減ercolating鈥� among the 2024 candidates.
鈥淲e were the party of fiscal responsibility, including entitlement reform. We were the party of free trade capitalism,鈥� says Mr. Bartlett. 鈥淔lash-forward four years: Donald Trump says, 鈥楴o more stupid wars. You鈥檙e not going to touch Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security. Oh, and by the way, it鈥檚 called fair trade, not free trade.鈥� And what happened? He won.鈥澛犅�
While some candidates are calling for a return to core Republican ideas and principles, others seem to be saying, 鈥淢aybe Trump鈥檚 ideas are much closer to where voters and the base of the party is,鈥� Mr. Bartlett adds.
As Trump leads, Ramaswamy echoes message
So far, Mr. Trump is the heavy favorite to win the nomination again, with formidable leads in most . A late August poll of New Hampshire primary voters found the former president as for almost half of those surveyed.聽
鈥淚 like Donald J. Trump,鈥� says David Hunt, wiping sweat and dirt from his arms as he takes a break from working outside his home in Windsor, New Hampshire. Mr. Hunt says his business drilling wells for homes has all but dried up due to rising interest rates and a difficult housing market. The farm stand that he runs with his wife, Laurie, where they sell local produce, honey, and maple butter through an honor system, has struggled as well. By comparison, Mr. Hunt says he 鈥渘ever made as much鈥� money as he did during the Trump years. 聽聽
When asked if he鈥檇 consider voting for anyone else in the GOP primary field, Mr. Hunt answers, 鈥淰ik.鈥�
Indeed, Mr. Ramaswamy has tried to position himself as the inheritor of the MAGA mantle, though many New Hampshire voters like Mr. Hunt still struggle to pronounce his name. Mr. Ramaswamy calls聽his campaign 鈥渢he leading edge of defining where the 鈥楢merica First鈥� movement goes from here.鈥澛�
The Harvard- and Yale-educated lawyer, who made millions as a biotech entrepreneur, has never held elected office and 鈥� in 2004 for a Libertarian and in 2020 for President Trump.
At the first Republican debate in late August, Mr. Ramaswamy stood in the middle of the stage, fending off attacks from almost all the other candidates and throwing punches of his own. In the 24 hours that followed, there were聽 of his name.
The crowd at the Ramaswamy picnic whistled and applauded when he vowed to abolish numerous government agencies, cut 75% of the federal workforce, and battle the 鈥渘ew secular cults鈥� of COVID-19 and transgender issues. The GOP primary, he told the crowd, was a choice between 鈥渋ncremental reform鈥� and 鈥渞evolution.鈥澛�
Mr. Ramaswamy鈥檚 rhetoric closely emulates Mr. Trump鈥檚, and he echoes the former president鈥檚 depiction of America as in a state of decline. Indeed, one lesson other candidates seem to have taken from Mr. Trump鈥檚 political success is that style matters more than substance 鈥� and that many voters will be flexible on policy if they like a candidate鈥檚 posture.
鈥淩ight now, the Republican Party is about attitude and swagger,鈥� says Mr. Bartlett, the GOP strategist. 鈥淰ivek has made some very inflammatory comments. It tends to resonate. It is not just what you say, but how you say it in the Republican Party.鈥�
Can a return to Reaganism appeal?
At the other end of the spectrum is Mr. Pence, a 1990s-style politician in a blue blazer and dad sneakers, who has been calling for a return to Reaganesque Republicanism 鈥� the聽鈥渢hree-legged stool鈥� of religious traditionalism, foreign policy hawkishness, and free market sentiment 鈥� which he says would usher in a new 鈥淢orning in America.鈥�
On the stump in New Hampshire, the former Trump vice president called out 鈥淒onald Trump and his imitators鈥� for preaching a 鈥渟iren song of populism鈥� that has destabilized the GOP and aligned it with Democrats on many issues.聽
鈥淲e have come to a Republican time for choosing,鈥� Mr. Pence told a crowd of students, several of whom said they were there for class credit, at Saint Anselm College in Manchester. 鈥淭he question of the hour is not just who, but what will we offer the American people a year from this November? ... I believe that choice will determine the fate of the party and the course of our nation for years to come.鈥�
If Mr. Pence鈥檚 meager crowds last week were any indication, however, the party may have already made its choice.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 like Pence,鈥� said freshman Isiah Chamberlain after seeing the former vice president at a town hall at New England College in Henniker, New Hampshire. 鈥淚鈥檇 take any populist candidate over an elitist conservative.鈥�
Still, others saw Mr. Pence鈥檚 message as worth heeding. Freshman Matthew Cryan said he liked the former vice president鈥檚 references to Ronald Reagan and his comments about standing firm against Mr. Putin. 鈥淚 want to knock him down before he has the chance to get stronger.鈥�
During the last debate, Mr. Pence was the only candidate onstage 鈥渨ho reflects what a president should be,鈥� says Deana Gagnon, a store manager speaking outside a shopping center down the road from the Pence town hall in Raymond. Ms. Gagnon voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 but says she now finds him unpresidential.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 want a president for show,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 want a president who can make some change.鈥�
