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With ceasefire proposal stalled, Trump faces uneasy military options in Iran

As the United States and Israel enter the second month in their war against Iran, all three countries appear bent on pressing strategic advantages rather than ending hostilities shy of their own stretch goals.

With dueling ceasefire proposals in play, President Donald Trump on Wednesday tried to claim a negotiating edge. 鈥淭hey want to make a deal so badly.鈥� If they don鈥檛, he added, the U.S. will 鈥渏ust keep blowing them away.鈥�

Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a longtime commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, returned the taunt. 鈥淲e have just one message for the American soldiers: Come closer.鈥�

By Thursday, Mr. Trump said he would extend his deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz until April 6. Some analysts speculated it was a stalling tactic to allow the thousands of U.S. troops headed to the region 鈥� including Army paratroopers trained in high-risk missions 鈥� more time to arrive.

The president鈥檚 attempt to march to the peace table through threats or attacks on power plants might ultimately work. But without a shared endgame for the U.S-Israel alliance and Iran, that march appears stalled, with the threat of massive U.S. military action mounting.

Officials in Tehran suggest they are unmoved by the White House鈥檚 recent 15-point ceasefire proposal.聽On Wednesday, Israel said it had killed the naval chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Alireza Tangsiri, who was helping block the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have denied any direct talks and have rejected the reported U.S. terms as 鈥渆xtremely maximalist.鈥� Tehran has issued its own shorter list of demands to the U.S.

Iran has 鈥渘o intention of negotiating for now,鈥� Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said this week. Tehran will 鈥渆nd the war when it decides to do so,鈥� another official said on state television, 鈥渁nd when its own conditions are met.鈥�

Wargames and endgames

Both sides are projecting confidence that they can outlast the other if unable to agree on terms for peace.

For Iran鈥檚 leaders, this involves surviving what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth describes as 鈥渞elentless鈥� decapitation strikes. For the Trump administration, it means surviving November鈥檚 midterm elections.

Against the backdrop of rising fuel prices, some 60% of Americans say that U.S. military action in Iran has been 鈥渆xcessive,鈥� according to released this week. While depriving Iran of nuclear weapons is an 鈥渆xtremely鈥� or 鈥渧ery鈥� important policy objective for two-thirds of respondents, an equal number say that keeping gas prices in check is, too 鈥� a tricky political balancing act for the administration.

For now, though it is uncertain that hard-line negotiations will bring peace, what is clear, analysts say, is that U.S. troops are heading into harm鈥檚 way as the president weighs a high-risk escalation in the war.

Possible strategic moves

Tehran has already rejected as nonstarters many of the 15 points the U.S. has reportedly floated in its peace proposal.

These include shutting down the country鈥檚 nuclear program by removing all enriched uranium. There would also be a cap or an outright ban on long-range ballistic missiles and an end to backing proxy militias in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Most importantly, in the short term, Iran would have to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In return, the U.S. would lift major economic sanctions, allow Iran back into global financial systems, and restore oil exports. Support for nonmilitary nuclear cooperation 鈥� such as nuclear energy infrastructure 鈥� and rebuilding assistance might also be in play.

Iranian hard-liners, in the meantime, are stepping up their calls for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

Should Iran continue to resist dealmaking efforts, the U.S. military 鈥� including the 11th and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Units, which comprise some 4,700 troops and specialize in launching attacks from ships to shore 鈥� is on its way, equipped with aircraft, artillery, and infantry, as well as Defense Department plans to reopen the strait by force.

The deployment also includes thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, the Pentagon鈥檚 premier crisis-response force.

Their sights are set on Iran鈥檚 Kharg Island, which processes 90% of the country鈥檚 oil exports. Seizing the 8-square-mile island could help force Iran to reopen the strait.

The island, about 25 miles off the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf, 鈥渃ould be isolated and captured, because it鈥檚 not that large,鈥� says retired Col. Mark Cancian, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

But first, U.S. forces would have to get through the strait, which would be heavily targeted by Iranian forces, analysts say. Along the way are smaller islands, Abu Musa and Larak, fortified with Iranian bunkers, that might also need to be seized to force Iran鈥檚 hand.

They could be used 鈥渁s part of the effort to open the strait, and then [the forces] would aim for Kharg Island,鈥� Mr. Cancian adds.

In anticipation of this, Iran has been preparing its defenses, reportedly laying a range of explosive mines along the island to hinder resupply efforts. It has also been bringing in air defenses and beefing up forces there.

The U.S. military would need 鈥渢o bait and ambush remaining Iranian forces, drawing them out of hiding,鈥澛� Benjamin Jensen, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

While seizing the island would be one objective, holding it could require additional U.S. forces.

A time for clarity

Last week, Mr. Trump issued an ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the strait or face U.S. attacks that would 鈥渙bliterate鈥� the country鈥檚 energy and power plants.

Should Mr. Trump follow through with threats to attack power stations, it could knock out electricity for many Iranians, as well as for desalination plants that provide drinking water for several desert nations,聽 say.

There are questions about whether destroying these plants complies with the laws of armed conflict. These laws prohibit directing attacks against civilians or civilian infrastructure, retired Maj. Gen. Charles Dunlap Jr., a former deputy judge advocate general of the Air Force.

While military law allows for attacks that provide a pathway to peace, whether the U.S. strategy fits that definition is not clear, argues Mr. Dunlap, now executive director of the Center on Law, Ethics and National Security at Duke University School of Law.

鈥淚t may give them a better chance to overthrow the regime that has inflicted so much misery on them.鈥� But, he warns, 鈥渢here is no question that the Iranian people would suffer.鈥�