Iranian rulers fought to survive. They found leverage en route to an endgame.
| London
From his rostrum, Iran鈥檚 military spokesman adopted a decidedly mocking tone, ridiculing the American and Israeli enemy as 鈥渢hose who prefer fleeing over standing their ground, those same masters of consecutive defeats, who ... see fear in every one of their cells.鈥�
Then, Ebrahim Zolfaghari 鈥� wearing a camouflage Revolutionary Guard Corps uniform and sporting a trimmed black beard and slicked-back hair 鈥� switched from Farsi to English to bait President Donald Trump.
鈥淗ey, Trump. You鈥檙e fired!鈥� the Iranian officer said, using one of the U.S. president鈥檚 signature phrases from his reality TV days. 鈥淵ou are familiar with this sentence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!鈥�
Why We Wrote This
The Iranian military鈥檚 destructive capacity is far from that of the United States and Israel. Yet its asymmetric strategy, including closing the Strait of Hormuz, has given it the confidence to issue its own demands. What that means for ending the war, and the aftermath.
After nearly four weeks of war, it has not been a balanced fight: The destructive capacity of Iran鈥檚 military forces is far from that of the United States and Israel, which have struck more than 15,000 targets during a campaign that has sought to foster regime change in Iran.
But since the U.S. and Israel launched their surprise attack on Feb. 28 鈥� assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the process 鈥� the Islamic Republic has remained firmly in control in Iran, refusing to capitulate. And it continues to fight back, seizing effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for one-fifth of global energy supplies.
Iran鈥檚 asymmetric strategy has rained missiles down on Israel 鈥� including multiple waves on Tuesday 鈥� and expanded the conflict by retaliating across Arab states in the Gulf region. Those strikes focused on nations that host U.S. bases, as well as those countries鈥� civilian infrastructure and shipping.
Growing confidence
鈥淭his war will not end, and there will be no ceasefire, until sanctions are lifted, compensation is paid, and legally binding international guarantees are provided to prevent any repeat of aggression against Iran,鈥� Mohsen Rezaei, the recently named senior military adviser to Iran鈥檚 new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, told state-run TV on Monday.
Both the U.S. and Iran have vowed to end the conflict on their own terms. But now, Iran鈥檚 strategic endgame is increasingly coming into focus 鈥� and its confidence has grown in dictating some of those terms 鈥� as energy prices have soared, and the White House appears ready to find an off-ramp.
鈥淣ow, in the process of fighting back, Iran built a new source of leverage that is very effective, and that is the Strait of Hormuz,鈥� says Hassan Ahmadian, an associate professor of Middle East and North Africa studies at Tehran University. He notes that Iran has 鈥渂een successful鈥� in driving up oil prices, controlling the strait, and widening the war 鈥渋n a way that forced the U.S. to back down from its maximum demands.鈥�
鈥淚t is no longer about regime change 鈥� as it was initially 鈥� no longer about internal uprising in Iran, no longer about electing a new supreme leader for Iran, or wiping out Iran鈥檚 missiles and drones,鈥� says Dr. Ahmadian. 鈥淭he Iranians took the issue from a maximum desire, I would say 鈥� not even a goal, on the part of the U.S. and Israel 鈥� and turned it into something practical that they can benefit from.鈥�
This past weekend, Mr. Trump gave a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to 鈥渙pen鈥� the Strait of Hormuz, or the U.S. would 鈥渙bliterate鈥� Iran鈥檚 energy infrastructure. But on Monday, he announced a five-day delay, claiming on social media that 鈥渧ery good and productive鈥� talks with Iran were underway for a 鈥渢otal resolution of our hostilities.鈥�
Mr. Trump also suggested on Monday that he might manage the strait himself, or do so jointly with 鈥渢he ayatollah鈥� 鈥� a line met with derision in Tehran.
Iran鈥檚 list of conditions
The speaker of Iran鈥檚 Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, responded on X that 鈥渘o negotiations鈥� have been held with the U.S., and that the 鈥渇ake news鈥� was being used to 鈥渕anipulate鈥� oil markets and 鈥渆scape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped.鈥�
鈥淚ranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors,鈥� he wrote. Last week, Mr. Qalibaf posted that the Strait of Hormuz 鈥渨on鈥檛 return to its pre-war status,鈥� and said it was 鈥渉ilarious鈥� that Mr. Trump 鈥渃laimed he 鈥榙efeated鈥� us 9 times in the last two weeks.鈥�
Iran has made a list of six conditions to end what it calls its 鈥渄efensive war,鈥� including guarantees that hostilities will not restart; that U.S. military bases in the region be closed; and agreement on a 鈥渘ew legal regime鈥� for the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is also demanding reparations for U.S. and Israeli strikes, which began while the United States and Iran were engaged in negotiations over Tehran鈥檚 nuclear program. On the eve of the attack, the lead mediator, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, had said a deal was 鈥渨ithin reach.鈥�
Similarly, Israel鈥檚 12-day air campaign against Iran last June, later joined by the U.S., was launched amid nuclear talks between the White House and Iran.
Iranian officials also now speak about imposing a toll for passage through the strait, which it has never done in the past.
鈥淭his war created a new way of dealing with strategic issues, which recalls what the United States did,鈥� says Dr. Ahmadian. 鈥淚t is not about international law; it is about might making right. That鈥檚 what happened with the start of the war on Iran, and I think Iranians, now controlling the strait, are now legalizing it, based on [Iran鈥檚] internal law 鈥� as Iran is not a signatory to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.鈥�
Popular perspectives
For now, it is not clear when the war might end. Two U.S. Marine expeditionary units are en route to the Middle East, and the Pentagon reportedly plans to ask Congress for $200 billion to pay for a war that only about one-third of Americans support.
And Iranians, meanwhile, have been caught in the middle of a conflict that health officials there say has left more than 1,500 people dead.
鈥淓veryone was aware of [Mr. Trump鈥檚] 48-hour deadline, and that alone increased social anxiety. People rushed to supermarkets again,鈥� says Elham, an artist and mother in Tehran.
鈥淭elecom services were sending government messages to everyone, saying that they would not fall short in defending the nation, and that energy, fuel, and food supplies would be available for a long time,鈥� she said in a text message, noting that few felt reassured.
鈥淎fter the deadline was extended, local newspapers interpreted it as Trump backing down,鈥� said Elham. 鈥淎lthough people felt slightly better, they are still worried 鈥� because of the constant sounds of explosions or air defense systems, and the rising prices 鈥� about the possibility of war and a nationwide blackout.鈥�
Mr. Trump has said repeatedly that 鈥渘one鈥� of Iran鈥檚 military capabilities remain, from its air force and navy to its missile arsenal and nuclear program.
Yet Iran has continued to bombard Israel and strike neighboring Gulf states. And Mr. Trump has been unable to cobble together a coalition to deploy their militaries to keep shipping lanes open.
Gulf Arab relations
鈥淭he Iranians seem to believe that they are in a position where not only does the regime survive, but it imposes enough costs to deter future attacks,鈥� says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project for the International Crisis Group.
鈥淏ut while Tehran has been able to broaden the battlefield and raise economic costs for its adversaries, it runs a major risk of overplaying its hand,鈥� says Dr. Vaez. 鈥淭heir stated 鈥� and rather optimistic 鈥� terms are based on the hope of a strategic landscape altered in its favor.鈥�
And, Dr. Ahmadian adds, it will take years for Iran to repair relations with the Gulf Arab nations, whose energy installations have been targeted by Iran and which depend on exporting their oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The grievances run both ways, he says, including Iran鈥檚, over the U.S. use of bases in Gulf Arab states.
鈥淭o the extent neither side has been able to land a knockout blow, each has a say in how long it continues,鈥� says Dr. Vaez. He notes that after limited Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets in October 2024 and again last June, there were 鈥渂ullish estimates as to the extent of the setbacks.鈥�
鈥淏ut in each case, Iran moved to rehabilitate its missile capability, which has proven, along with drones, its most significant tool.鈥�
鈥淭he damage this time is no doubt more significant,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut unlikely to be terminal.鈥�
An Iranian researcher contributed to this report.
