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In Cuba, is Trump seeking ouster of Communist leaders, or of China鈥檚 presence?

With ousted Venezuelan President Nicol谩s Maduro in custody in New York, and his decapitated regime in Caracas quietly cooperating with the United States, President Donald Trump has shifted his hostile refrain to Cuba.

鈥淐uba is a failing nation,鈥� Mr. Trump has been saying recently. 鈥淚t is down for the count.鈥�

And with the Trump administration鈥檚 severing of Cuba鈥檚 Venezuelan oil lifeline 鈥� and a Jan. 29 executive order threatening stiff tariffs on any country supplying the island nation with oil 鈥� that assessment looks increasingly accurate.

The oil blockade has quickly led Cuba to enact harsh measures, including a halt to all public transportation, the declaration of a four-day work week, the closure of the tourist hotels that provided much-needed revenue, and mounting blackouts.

Families already enduring harsh living conditions are turning to wood and coal for cooking. Some international airlines have canceled their flights to the island.

The rapidly deteriorating conditions in Cuba are feeding an intensifying debate in Washington: deal or regime change? Should Mr. Trump go for a Venezuela-type bargain that leaves a cooperative segment of the existing government in place? Or should he squeeze until he brings down a communist regime that has been a U.S. b锚te noire since 1959?

The president鈥檚 rhetoric might suggest he favors the latter. Accordingly, some Cuban Americans have become suddenly rhapsodic over the prospects of an imminent return to rebuild a democratic and capitalist homeland, and perhaps reclaim properties they left behind some seven decades ago.

Gradual change vs. chaos

Yet anyone hoping for quick regime change in Havana is likely in for disappointment, many regional experts say.

Instead, most expect to see unrelenting U.S. economic pressure leading to some kind of agreement between the Trump administration and Cuban power brokers that favors gradual change on the island over sudden collapse and chaos.

Such a deal might be negotiated with the Cuban government. But for some former U.S. officials and experts, it鈥檚 more likely that meaningful talks would be 鈥� and if swirling rumors are correct, already are 鈥� held with other powerful circles. Among the candidates: senior military leaders, who have long held a tight grip on the economy, or 鈥渞etired鈥� decision-makers, including Ra煤l Castro, the former president and the late revolutionary leader Fidel Castro鈥檚 nonagenarian brother.

鈥淭rump says we are talking to 鈥榯he highest people in Cuba鈥� to get a deal, and that may or may not be true,鈥� says Michael Rubin, a senior fellow in foreign policy at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

鈥淏ut what we do know is that if we are talking to any real decision-makers, then it is not with the current president, [Miguel] D铆az-Canel, who is a mere figurehead,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t would have to be with someone or a group that matters.鈥�

Dr. Rubin says that could be with what he calls the 鈥渢roika鈥� 鈥� three aging聽former leaders led by Mr. Castro 鈥� or聽government officials who accept that a deal with the United States is inevitable. Or, with powerful military leaders willing to compromise with the U.S. to keep their share of the economy.

The real focus is China

Still, any discussion of a 鈥渄eal鈥� raises the question: In the case of Cuba, what is President Trump looking for?

Whereas the major strategic U.S. 鈥済et鈥� in Venezuela was access to the country鈥檚 oil (and cutting it off from adversaries), what the Trump administration might be going for in Cuba is ouster not of the regime, some experts say, but of China.

鈥淭he more strategic goal here ... is getting China but also Russia away from using Cuba as a forward operating base for their intelligence and even military activities,鈥� says Christopher Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. That goal, he notes, 鈥渋s 100% in line with the recent that zeroes in on removing China from strategic locations in the Western Hemisphere.鈥�

鈥淭rump is talking a lot about Greenland, and earlier about the Panama Canal and other places in the hemisphere,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut there is no more strategic location than 90 miles off the Florida Keys.鈥�

The Cuban government insists that China has no intelligence-gathering infrastructure on the island. But numerous U.S. government and national security think-tank reports over recent years have asserted that such spy bases indeed exist, as they do in other Latin American countries with close ties to China.

In the debate over deal vs. regime change, many experts and some officials willing to speak under condition of anonymity say the wild card in deciding which option will prevail is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was born in Miami to Cuban parents.

Mr. Rubio鈥檚 standing with President Trump has vaulted ever higher in recent months. And he has long advocated 鈥� as a Florida senator and as a political darling of the South Florida Cuban exile community 鈥� a policy aimed at ridding Cuba of the revolution that prompted so many Cubans to leave their homeland.

For its part, the Cuban government says that, while it is open to talks with the U.S. that are 鈥渞espectful of Cuba鈥檚 sovereignty,鈥� none are currently underway.

The Venezuela model

Yet some experts caution that, as much as the exile community and some of the president鈥檚 close associates could be pressing for regime change, Mr. Trump might be better served by considering the potential ramifications of moving in that direction 鈥� and by hewing closer to a Venezuela model of action.

鈥淏ringing about regime change in Cuba has been the great white whale for many conservatives for a very long time,鈥� says Rosemary Kelanic, an expert in energy security and U.S. grand strategy at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank advocating a realist foreign policy. 鈥淭his seems especially true in the South Florida Cuban community and in Trump鈥檚 circle of friends at Mar-a-Lago.鈥�

鈥淏ut while Trump is using oil to increase the pressure on the Cuban regime,鈥� she adds, 鈥淚 think the Venezuela model and Trump's talk of a 鈥榙eal鈥� suggests he could have something other than full regime change in mind.鈥�

Dr. Kelanic says unrelenting pressure on Cuba risks destabilizing it and causing a humanitarian disaster just 90 miles off the Florida coast. 鈥淭he consequences could include refugee outflows from Cuba into Florida,鈥� she adds, 鈥渟o there鈥檚 a real risk of blowback affecting an issue this administration cares about deeply.鈥�

Forcing regime change would 鈥渞equire deploying the Marines to Cuba鈥檚 beaches, and that just isn鈥檛 in the cards for a president who is not in favor of boots-on-the-ground options,鈥� says Mr. Hernandez-Roy. Instead, he foresees what he calls 鈥渞egime management鈥� that employs economic pressure to nudge gradual political change.

鈥淯nlike Venezuela, Cuba has no democratic muscle memory to assist with quick political change,鈥� he says.

As for who the Trump administration might turn to for meaningful talks, Mr. Hernandez-Roy says to keep an eye on Ra煤l Castro鈥檚 son, Alejandro Castro Esp铆n, who was the Obama administration鈥檚 behind-the-scenes interlocutor on normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations.

Dr. Rubin notes that more than 2 million Cubans have fled the island in recent years, many of them professionals and members of the middle class, driven out by economic collapse. He says that group might be encouraged to return and participate in Cuba鈥檚 political and economic restructuring.

In terms of what Mr. Trump might want from any negotiations with Cuba, Dr. Rubin advises keeping in mind that the president is a real estate dealmaker who relishes the idea of accomplishing what other presidents couldn鈥檛.

Especially appealing to Mr. Trump, he says, would be 鈥減utting hotels carrying his name on Cuba鈥檚 beaches.鈥�

Those signs would be a constant reminder that while Cuba鈥檚 communist government stymied 12 U.S. presidents, it was President Trump who finally defeated it.