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ISIS attacks on Libya: Why oil might not be its top goal

Islamic State fighters have stepped up their attacks on Libya鈥檚 oil facilities since two major political factions agreed last month to a UN-negotiated deal aimed at creating a unity government.

The Islamic State affiliate in Libya has been busy attacking the North African country鈥檚 vast oil facilities in recent weeks 鈥� raising concerns that the terrorist organization is out to seize another lucrative source of revenue, similar to the oilfields it controls in Syria and Iraq.

But in Libya, the Islamic State (IS) may have a different objective in mind as it blows up oil tanks, shells oil facilities, and attacks the towns where these facilities are clustered along the Mediterranean coastline, regional analysts say.

The group that has taken advantage of four years of fighting among rival governments and weakening national authority to build up its foothold in Libya may be out to deny a new unity government the revenues it needs to function and provide services.

IS, or ISIS as it is also known, may have its sights on developing its own oil revenues in Libya at some point down the road, analysts say. But right now, its chief goal is to keep Libya a failed state.

鈥淭he Islamic State in Libya faces a threat if the unity government is able to get on its feet and start providing services like security, so it may be intent on denying [the government] the money it needs to do that,鈥� says Frederic Wehrey, a North Africa expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 buy the argument that they could convert these facilities into quick revenue sources for themselves,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut we know from experience that disrupting oil facilities has always been an important part of [IS] strategy.鈥�

IS fighters have stepped up their attacks on Libya鈥檚 oil facilities since the country鈥檚 two major political factions agreed last month to a UN-negotiated deal aimed at creating a unity government by mid-January. A national unity government backed by loyal security forces could take back control of the country鈥檚 oil facilities and get petroleum exports back on track, US officials and other experts say.

That may be exactly what IS is trying to prevent.

Last week IS fighters shelling the port cities of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf set a half-dozen large oil storage tanks ablaze, while car bombs detonated at checkpoints outside oil fields further disrupted access to the country鈥檚 oil facilities.

Libya鈥檚 oil production in 2015 was at best about a quarter of a peak of some 1.65 million barrels a day before strongman Muammar Qaddafi was ousted in 2011.

IS鈥檚 鈥渇ailed state鈥� strategy also was on view in a truck bombing attack last week that killed dozens of recruits at a police academy in the coastal city of Zliten, about 200 miles west of Sirte 鈥� the terrorist group鈥檚 headquarters in Libya. The Zliten academy was set to be the site of Western-funded training for security forces as envisioned under the UN-brokered peace plan.

Speculation has grown that the IS leadership in Raqqa, Syria, may be planning to consolidate its foothold in Libya as an alternative capital for 聽the group as international pressure has mounted against it in Iraq and Syria. IS declared its control of three 鈥渨ilayats鈥� or provinces, of the caliphate in Libya in November 2014.

Carnegie鈥檚 Mr. Wehrey says a number of factors suggest to him that IS is having a more difficult time asserting itself in Libya than it did in Syria 聽and Iraq. 鈥淟ibya is a different animal in many respects,鈥� he says. 鈥淔or one thing, the sectarian cleavage isn鈥檛 there,鈥� he says of Sunni Arab Libya. 鈥淔rom what we know they have had a hard time replicating the functions of a state.鈥� The IS affiliate in Sirte has set up sharia courts, carried out 聽public 聽executions, and ordered women to comport themselves according 聽to group鈥檚 strict interpretation of Islamic law.

As for tapping into Libya鈥檚 oil wealth, Wehrey says the terrorist organization faces a number of high hurdles, including a closely monitored coastline, destroyed pipelines, and a lack of other means of getting oil out. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 have the trucks鈥� that IS does in Syria and Iraq to smuggle contraband oil, he says.

But IS in Libya may be taking steps to change that. Reports are surfacing of IS recruiting petroleum engineers and other specialists from among the thousands of Libyans left unemployed by the turmoil in the oil sector. Wehrey says that eventually, if the international efforts to return order to Libya fail, the organization鈥檚 job postings might work.

鈥淭he strategy seems to be that economic despair will drive people to you, and it might be true,鈥� Wehrey says, 鈥渢hough I鈥檓 still not sure where they鈥檇 sell their 聽oil.鈥�

But other experts in terrorist financing note that a significant portion of IS 聽oil in Iraq and Syria is sold internally, and they say they assume IS in Libya would do the same.