Iran-Saudi feud: Does it imperil Syria peace talks?
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| Istanbul, Turkey
Diplomatic efforts to preserve the staggering Syrian peace process have gone into overdrive amid a surge in Iran-Saudi tensions in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia鈥檚 execution of a dissident Shiite cleric on Jan. 2 prompted Iranian protesters to ransack and burn the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. Now there are concerns that the two regional rivals 鈥 who support opposing sides in Syria鈥檚 civil war and proxy forces elsewhere in the region 鈥撀燾ould jeopardize UN-sponsored peace talks due to resume in Geneva Jan. 25.
The stakes could not be higher, with a quarter million dead in Syria and more than half of its pre-war population of some 22 million internally displaced or in exile as refugees. Since the war began in 2011, Syria has become, with Iraq, a base of operations for the self-declared Islamic State.聽
Two rounds of talks in Vienna last fall brought the international players around the same table for the first time. Among them are Iran and Russia, key backers of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; Saudi Arabia, the US, and others are supporting a cast of anti-Assad rebel groups.聽Analysts point out that Washington had to pressure the Saudis to sit at the table with Iranians at those talks, underscoring the risk of further polarization.聽
The UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura,聽is visiting Saudi Arabia and Iran this week to try to ease tensions between the two sides.聽鈥淲e cannot afford to lose this momentum, despite what is going on in the region,鈥 he said Tuesday in Riyadh. He travels next to Tehran.聽
As Mr. de Mistura seeks to salvage the diplomatic process, what is in jeopardy?
How much progress has been made toward peace in Syria?
A roadmap agreed in Vienna 聽鈥撀燼nd codified in a unanimous UN Security Council resolution on Dec. 18 鈥 spells out the establishment of a transitional Syrian government and seeks a cease-fire in six months, and elections within 18 months.
But it makes no mention of the fate of President Assad, perhaps the thorniest point of disagreement.
A meeting in Riyadh in December of key anti-Assad political and armed factions 鈥 minus the Islamic State, and the Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra 鈥撀爈ed to formation of a unified committee to negotiate.聽One important group withdrew, Ahrar al-Sham, saying that armed groups were not sufficiently represented.
Syria's regime has dismissed the opposition's effort to form a united front.聽
Meanwhile,聽opposition groups are insisting on pre-conditions that could scupper a resumption of talks.聽Opposition leaders in Riyadh told de Mistura that they would not resume talks unless the regime committed to a prisoner release, stopping attacks on civilian areas, and ending the use of barrel bombs dropped from helicopters 鈥撀爌erhaps the single most lethal type of attack used in Syria.聽
What is the Saudi position now?
In Riyadh, de Mistura said he found a 鈥渃lear determination鈥 not to let current tensions 鈥渉ave any negative impact on the Vienna momentum鈥 toward the upcoming Geneva talks, according to a UN statement issued after his meeting Tuesday with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir.
However, while Mr. Jubeir said 鈥渨e will continue to work with you鈥 to reach a political solution, he also said Saudi Arabia would continue to give 鈥渕ilitary, political, and economic support to the Syrian people鈥 鈥撀爉eaning anti-Assad rebel groups. And he repeated the long-standing Saudi position that Assad could play no role in Syria鈥檚 future.
What about Iran鈥檚 reaction?
In his first press conference as Iran鈥檚 president-elect in June 2013, Hassan Rouhani spoke of his desire to reengage with the Saudis, calling them 鈥渘eighbors and brothers鈥 and saying Iran was 鈥渇ully ready鈥 to end decades of rivalry.
But Wednesday Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accused Saudi Arabia of refusing Iran鈥檚 overtures, and instead openly stoking sectarian Sunni-Shiite tension and opposing Iran's landmark nuclear deal reached last July with聽the US and five other world powers.
鈥淔or the past 2-1/2 years, Saudi Arabia has opposed Iran鈥檚 diplomacy,鈥 Mr. Zarif said at a press conference with his Iraqi counterpart. Iran says Saudi Arabia has been recklessly aggressive in the past year, with a 9-month bombing campaign in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthis, and by supporting anti-Assad rebels in Syria, among them jihadists.聽
However, Iran hasn't indicated that it would pull out of the Geneva talks. 聽
What is the US doing?
US Secretary of State John Kerry has called officials in Riyadh and Tehran to deescalate tensions, noting that on top of risking the Syria talks, such division may hurt the US-led battle against Islamic State, which US officials say today poses a greater threat to the West than Al Qaeda.聽
鈥淥ne of the key things on Kerry鈥檚 mind is not letting the Vienna process stall or fall backward,鈥 said State Department spokesman John Kirby.
The White House has come under fire for its light public condemnation of Saudi Arabia鈥檚 execution of Mr. Nimr 鈥撀爐he consequences of which Washington says it warned Saudi officials in advance 鈥 and also of the embassy sacking in Tehran.
In an end-of-year opinion piece, Mr. Kerry said
He cited the diplomatic initiative and 鈥渢imetable for negotiations鈥 between the 鈥渞esponsible opposition鈥 and Syria鈥檚 government.
The more progress made toward peace, wrote Kerry, 鈥渢he easier it will be to mount a truly sustained and united effort against [Islamic State] 鈥撀爐he foremost embodiment of evil our generation has known, as a foe we are absolutely determined to defeat.鈥