Out of war, new alliances for stability
Even as oil shipments resume through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf nations are creating alternative regional relationships and pathways to protect collective economic security and sovereignty.
Oil trucks arriving from Iraq, on their way to Syria鈥檚 Baniyas oil terminal for onward export, May 14: It鈥檚 a sign of renewed cooperation after decades of tense, on-off diplomatic relations.
Mahmoud Hassano/Reuters
The off-again, on-again hostilities and opening of the Strait of Hormuz are prompting more creative and proactive thinking about global diplomacy and global markets. Governments are using the lulls to rev up stalled economic activities. And the key fossil fuel-producing nations of the Gulf are working quickly to establish alternative infrastructures of cooperation 鈥� as well as of concrete and steel.
Already, Iraq 鈥� which has had tense relations with Syria for years 鈥� has been exporting its oil overland via tanker trucks to Syrian ports. And many Gulf states have pivoted to importing tons of timber, cement, and agricultural and consumer goods through those same ports. There are efforts to collaborate on new pipelines, storage facilities, and even a multicountry rail project. As the Monitor reported last week, these moves are 鈥渁lready reshaping regional trade and cementing new Mideast alliances鈥� among countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and Syria.聽
Diplomacy and dealmaking are gradually replacing decades of sectarian differences and political power plays, as Arab nations 鈥� small and large 鈥� reconfigure their regional role and relationships. This process, according to Chatham House, the London-based think tank, could ultimately lead to 鈥渁 unified, proactive ... Gulf architecture鈥� that reduces vulnerability to the decisions of other nations.聽
Other analysts view this moment 鈥� in the aftermath of the war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran, and its spillover attacks in the Gulf 鈥� as an opportunity to establish a 鈥淲estphalia-type鈥� compact. The 1648 Peace of Westphalia, which ended decades of war among Spanish, Dutch, and German rulers, established lasting norms around national sovereignty, balance of power, and interstate alliances.
Like Europe did, the Middle East today is realizing it can help prevent conflict 鈥渢hrough its own internal alliances,鈥� according to War on the Rocks, an online platform focused on defense and foreign affairs. 鈥淭he alignments we witness today are ... the region鈥檚 effort to find its own center of gravity.鈥�
Amid ongoing and uncertain global realignments, any moves toward greater regional stability and interconnectedness offer hope for economic and peace dividends. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that if the ceasefire holds, the war in the Gulf will reduce global growth rates only slightly, from an expected 3.4% to 3.1%. On the plus side, it cited new trade partnerships, regional agreements, and a greater impetus for renewables in import-dependent nations as a way to 鈥渋mprove energy security, and support the climate transition.鈥�
Or, as the World Economic Forum put it this month, the conflict has catalyzed 鈥渁 profound shift in how we conceive of the energy transition. What was once framed primarily as a climate imperative is now equally a matter of strategic sovereignty.鈥�
Refreshed views of international relations as well as natural and national resources can spur diplomatic and technical innovations that help avert or better navigate future conflicts.
While the world might 鈥渂ecome more multipolar, it need not become more fragmented,鈥� according to the IMF. In fact, as the eight-decade-old institution points out, the IMF itself was 鈥渇orged in the aftermath of war and great destruction, to advance economic and financial cooperation and integration for the benefit of all. Today, those principles are more vital than ever.鈥�