Iran nuclear talks move forward, but are world powers offering enough?
| Geneva
Iran and world powers are exuding optimism after nuclear talks resumed in Geneva today, but it is unclear whether a new two-stage American plan to temporarily halt expansion of Iran's nuclear program includes enough incentives for Iran to sign on.
As closed-door talks聽began, following a positive first round three weeks ago and two days of detailed technical discussions in Vienna last week, diplomats say prospects for a deal have never been better. Iran鈥檚 top negotiator, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, told Reuters聽after the first session this morning that "We are making progress, but it's tough." Earlier he said a deal here is possible 鈥渋f all parties do their best.鈥�
A senior US official聽before the talks聽described a first step lasting perhaps six months that would stop Iran鈥檚 nuclear program 鈥渇rom moving forward for the first time in decades,鈥� in exchange for 鈥渓imited, targeted, and reversible sanctions relief.鈥澛�
But the oil and financial sanctions, the most punishing of the slew of sanctions imposed on Iran, would remain in place through the initial phase聽of perhaps six months, the official said. Iran may not consider the plan, which is being put forward by the P5+1 (the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany), sufficiently balanced, nor does the plan appear to address Iran's insistence that it define an end result, up front, that permits uranium enrichment in Iran聽for verifiably peaceful purposes.
Also not clear is whether Washington聽appreciates how little time Iran鈥檚 new centrist President Hassan Rouhani may have for dealmaking. He is under pressure to improve Iran鈥檚 economy in months, not years, and also under attack by hardliners accusing him of being willing to cave in to Western demands.
Yet both sides have demonstrated an unprecedented political will to explore a deal, which could ease mutual mistrust.
The Iranians will have noted that the Obama administration has pulled out all the stops in the past 10 days to prevent Iran hawks in Congress from imposing more sanctions as the sensitive process unfolds.聽And the Americans will have registered how Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last weekend gave his backing to Iran鈥檚 nuclear negotiating team as 鈥渟ons of the revolution,鈥� and warned hardliners to back off in their criticism.
'Time on the clock'
The initial deal would 鈥減ut time on the clock,鈥� said the senior US official,聽perhaps giving a 鈥渃rucial鈥� six months on nonexpansion of Iran鈥檚 nuclear efforts, during which the final agreement could be reached.
Last Friday in Istanbul, Zarif lambasted past 鈥渮ero-sum鈥� approaches that did not solve the nuclear conundrum. He said Iran was ready to 鈥渄o everything 鈥� to ensure that even the perception that Iran has anything but peaceful intentions for its nuclear program will be removed, because we believe that even the perception that Iran pursues a nuclear weapons program is not only wrong, but dangerous.鈥�
The first step, the US official said, 鈥渕ust鈥� include capping levels of uranium enrichment, stockpiles of enriched material, the capacity of Iran鈥檚 nuclear facilities, and verification and monitoring.
At issue is the fate of Iran鈥檚 enrichment of uranium to 20 percent purity 鈥撀燼 level useful to fuel Iran鈥檚 small research reactor that produces medical isotopes, but only a few technical steps from weapons-grade material.
The bulk of Iran鈥檚 18,000 centrifuges 鈥� with only 10,000 or so currently spinning 鈥� now produce reactor fuel at less than 5 percent purity. Iran has signaled that it is willing to halt its 20 percent production, and convert its current stockpile into oxide for fuel, essentially making it very difficult to later use for a bomb.
Expanding the menu
At the first round of Geneva talks last month, Zarif聽sketched聽out a broad framework of an Iranian plan, with details provided by Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi. In Vienna, experts from both sides 鈥渄rilled down further," according to the US official.
鈥淲e have a menu of options that allow us to mix and match [incentives], depending upon what Iran is willing to do,鈥� said the senior US official. 鈥淲hat the end of that agreement looks like, quite frankly, is going to take a lot of time to negotiate.鈥�
The official asserted that sanctions have been "key" to bringing Iran to the negotiating table, but聽also gave a robust defense of a pause in imposing any new sanctions, echoing White House officials who have lobbied hard on Capitol Hill in recent days.
鈥淚f there is only a 10 percent chance that additional sanctions would put at risk those negotiations 鈥� and quite frankly, we believe it鈥檚 higher than 10 percent 鈥撀爓e all have an obligation not to take that risk,鈥� said the US official.
Iran rejects that assertion, noting that it offered a proposal in 2005 that also imposed similar limits on its nuclear program 鈥� when there were no nuclear-related sanctions on Iran.
The US prevented European negotiators from accepting that 2005 offer, in line with its no-enrichment policy.
But new sanctions now, 鈥渨hen in fact Iran [has] begun serious negotiations, it will say to our P5+1 partners we鈥檙e not serious about the negotiation, the United States of America isn鈥檛 serious, because we鈥檙e willing to put the negotiation at risk by taking additional unilateral action,鈥� said the US official.
