海角大神

Israel is unseen but very much heard at the negotiating table as Iran and six world powers resume talks tomorrow aimed at putting permanent limits on Iran鈥檚 nuclear program.

Israel is Iran鈥檚 arch-foe, and the United States' closest Middle East ally. US officials vow its security is sacrosanct, and have been striving to reassure Israel聽that any deal struck will聽address聽Israel鈥檚聽insistence 鈥� also stated by President Barack Obama repeatedly 鈥撀爐hat Iran never be able to acquire a nuclear weapon.聽

鈥淭o the people of Israel, I want to say the [Geneva] talks are the first step to stop the clock and prevent [Iran鈥檚] nuclear program from going forward,鈥� US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman told Israeli television聽on Sunday.

Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei聽on Sunday聽called Israel 鈥渁n illegal and bastard regime鈥� that the Islamic Republic would forever challenge. Iran accuses Israel of assassinating a number of its nuclear scientists, and has warned the US not to let Israel and the pro-Israel lobby in Washington dictate the policies of a superpower.聽

Israel鈥檚 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says a nuclear-armed Iran would be an 鈥渆xistential threat鈥� to the Jewish state and has threatened military strikes to prevent that outcome. He has also demanded聽ratcheting up聽sanctions until Iran dismantles its entire nuclear infrastructure. But given the scale of Iran鈥檚 programs and extent of its homegrown expertise today, that聽demand is likely no longer feasible.聽

Israeli security and Iran experts have a much more nuanced view about what Israel should expect.

鈥淚f Iran and the United States will come to a deal, it鈥檚 not going to be against the interests of the state of Israel, and I know that many people in Israel understand that,鈥� says David Menashri, the founder of the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University and now president of Israel鈥檚 College of Law & Business.聽

One Iranian scholar has told Mr. Menashri: 鈥淲e are not stupid to think it is possible for Iran and the United States to have good relations, while Israel and Iran are fighting each other. It doesn鈥檛 go together. So be quiet, stay there, your turn will come.鈥�

Speaking at the conference, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said,聽鈥淭he technology now is homegrown鈥� You cannot鈥� kill our scientists and remove the program."

鈥淪o how do you make sure this technology is peaceful?鈥� added Mr. Zarif. 鈥淓nable Iran to exercise it in a transparent fashion; you cannot push it under the rug.鈥�

Such changes will not come easily, however. Anti-US and anti-Israeli ideology have been 鈥減art of the DNA of this [Iranian] revolution,鈥� says Manashri. 鈥淲e cannot expect [President Hassan] Rouhani to become one of the 鈥榣overs of Zionism,鈥� as we say. We have to understand the limitations of what he can do and what he cannot.鈥�

Mr. Rouhani's predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was known for anti-Israel, anti-Zionism diatribes that questioned the scale of the Nazi Holocaust and declared that Israel one day would 鈥渄isappear from the face of time.鈥� While Iran's anti-Israel rhetoric has not ceased under the new centrist president 鈥� chants of 鈥淒eath to Israel!鈥� have often been voiced alongside 鈥淒eath to America!鈥� at official events 鈥� its shrillness has been dialed back.

But Israel's overriding concern is still that the negotiations are a stalling tactic.聽Today, Mr. Netanyahu聽warned聽US Secretary of State John Kerry in Jerusalem against any initial deal that聽would allow聽Iran to聽continue聽enrichment聽as sanctions are eased.

In contrast, Zarif said in Paris聽on Tuesday: "I believe it is even possible to reach that agreement this week." He added that if there is no breakthrough, however, it is "not a disaster."聽

The goal for Israel? 鈥淭hat at no point in the future will we wake up one morning and find that a capability that was dormant was suddenly activated,鈥� says Efraim Halevy, a former head of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad, who was instrumental in brokering Israel鈥檚 peace with King Hussein of Jordan in 1994.

Mr. Halevy聽described聽parts of a presentation by Zarif at the Istanbul conference聽as 鈥渆xhilarating.鈥澛營n it, Zarif聽laid out the framework of a win-win nuclear聽deal, in which both sides would accept and act upon the primary concerns of the other 鈥� Iran's right to enrich would be acknowledged by six world powers, while Iran would do everything it could to ensure that making a nuclear bomb would not be possible and allow that to be verified.聽

But Halevy told 海角大神 that the聽prospects of a deal were 鈥渞emote 鈥� because it鈥檚 almost too difficult to strike the degree of pain that both sides will have to endure in getting an agreement.鈥�

鈥淔or Iran, it鈥檚 become a symbol for everything,鈥� added Halevy. 鈥淎nd for the United States, it has become an issue in which the prestige of the United States is at stake."聽

Iran has created a so-called Axis of Resistance against US and Israeli influence in the Middle East that includes ally Syria, Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah, and Palestinian militant groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad. 聽

鈥淥f course, the Iranians say that Israel has no right to exist, et cetera, but they are not capable of really threatening our existence, our survival, even if they got nuclear weapons,鈥� says Shlomo Brom, an Israeli peace negotiator with Syria, Jordan, and the Palestinians who is now at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the Iranians are suicidal,鈥澛爏ays the former Israeli Defense Force brigadier general.聽鈥淭he way they conduct their business. .. shows that they are completely rational [by] making cost-benefit analysis and operating accordingly.

鈥淚f a nuclear deal is made, it will be good enough for Israel 鈥� maybe not the dream solution, but good enough.鈥�