Saudis pivot from seeking peace with Israel to trying to contain war
| Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Over the past few days, Saudi Arabia has experienced a diplomatic whiplash.
Before Saturday morning, the kingdom was riding high on good vibes and good publicity: It was nearing a historic normalization agreement with Israel that would have opened up economic and political ties, given it a formal security arrangement with America, and boosted its civilian nuclear program.
But within hours of Hamas鈥� bloody assault on Israel, Saudi Arabia found itself condemning massacres, urging restraint, pledging undying support for the Palestinians, and frantically trying to mediate one of the most intractable 鈥� and suddenly most volatile 鈥� conflicts in the Middle East.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onThe Saudi crown prince鈥檚 diplomatic turn, prioritizing prosperity and progress over conflict, has prompted the kingdom to seek to de-escalate the intensifying Israel-Hamas war. It is willing to talk to all sides, but how much leverage does it have?
On Thursday, in the first such contact between Saudi leadership and an Iranian leader in a decade, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman even spoke with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to 鈥渄iscuss the current military escalation in Gaza and its surroundings,鈥� according to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).
The contact with Saudi Arabia鈥檚 regional rival, an outspoken ally and supporter of Hamas, underscored the kingdom鈥檚 commitment to 鈥渃ommunicate with all international and regional parties to stop the ongoing escalation鈥� and its 鈥渞ejection of targeting of civilians in any way,鈥� the state-run SPA said.
In the call, the crown prince 鈥渟tressed the kingdom鈥檚 unwavering stance in standing up for the Palestinian cause and supporting efforts aimed at achieving a just and comprehensive peace that guarantees Palestinians鈥� legitimate rights,鈥� the agency said.
Diplomatic sources say the Saudis have reached out to Israel but have not received a reply.
Saudi Arabia鈥檚 hands-on role in trying to de-escalate war between Israel and Hamas poses a critical test of the crown prince鈥檚 newly articulated diplomacy-first philosophy. A wider war would threaten both the kingdom鈥檚 economic success story at home as well as its vision of a pragmatic region that puts prosperity ahead of old enmities. 聽
As intensified shelling on a besieged Gaza and an impending Israeli ground invasion sour the Saudi public鈥檚 mood on the prospects of cooperation with Israel, Riyadh hopes it can both achieve peace and keep the normalization deal alive.
Every day, that challenge intensifies. As of Thursday, Palestinian officials say 1,417 people have been killed by Israeli missile strikes in Gaza, including 447 children. Israel puts its own death toll above 1,300, mostly civilians.
Diplomatic flurry
Saudi Arabia had long used its position as custodian of two of Islam鈥檚 holiest sites and the world鈥檚 largest oil producer to push for concessions for Palestinians and to pitch peace plans, including the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which offered normalized Arab-Israeli ties in exchange for Palestinian statehood.
Yet Riyadh often kept the conflict and day-to-day diplomacy with Palestinians at arm鈥檚 length 鈥� allowing Egypt and Jordan, states with peace deals with Israel, to do the heavy lifting.
This week, Saudi Arabia too is working the phones.
Last weekend, the crown prince called to discuss developments and coordinate with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Jordan鈥檚 King Abdullah. The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud, has been coordinating with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is now in the region, and European and Gulf diplomats.
According to the SPA, the crown prince expressed to the leaders the 鈥渒ingdom鈥檚 unwavering commitment to supporting the Palestinian people in their pursuit of legitimate rights, a dignified life, and the achievement of a just and lasting peace.鈥�
The kingdom has 鈥渦rged both sides to use restraint鈥� and called on 鈥渢he need for all parties to respect international humanitarian law,鈥� SPA reported.
The new Saudi diplomacy has also meant a flurry of activity for the kingdom鈥檚 fresh nonresident envoy to the Palestinians, Nayef al-Sudairi, who only two weeks ago had traveled to Ramallah to present his credentials, the first official Saudi visit to the West Bank in 56 years.
In an attempt to mediate with all sides, according to Arab diplomatic sources, Saudi Arabia has also sent communications to Israel urging restraint in its response to Hamas鈥� attacks and to avoid a costly ground invasion in Gaza, which it warns would further inflame the region.
According to Arab diplomats, Saudi Arabia has attempted to use as leverage the danger that a prolonged war would galvanize anti-Israel sentiment and kill the Saudi-Israeli normalization talks. Riyadh has reportedly been frustrated by Israel鈥檚 lack of response.
鈥淭he crown prince and the kingdom are using their good relations with all parties to prevent military escalations from going further and to prevent more human suffering,鈥� says a Saudi official who was not authorized to speak to the press.
However, Saudi Arabia will not completely abandon normalization as, under 鈥渢he right conditions,鈥� it remains in Saudi Arabia鈥檚 long-term strategic interests, the source adds.
Yet de-escalation and Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority, Hamas鈥� rival, are now viewed as critical to keep the rapprochement agreement alive, the source says.
The conflict has strengthened the position of figures within the Saudi establishment who believe Israeli guarantees of Palestinian statehood 鈥� if not statehood itself 鈥� must precede any normalization.
鈥淭he current events show that Israel cannot ignore the conflict with the Palestinians and that its safety and security depend on solving the conflict with the Palestinians,鈥� says Hesham al-Ghannam, a Saudi analyst and international affairs expert.
鈥淭he kingdom can only hope that Israel would realize this. Its position remains the same [as] before these events: Progress on solving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a precondition to normalization.鈥�
Public mood sours
Riyadh today feels more distant from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than most Arab capitals.
Footage of missile-struck homes and screaming mothers and bloodied children in Gaza does not blare from TVs at restaurants and cafes; few car radios are tuned in to live updates on the war gripping commuters, as in the Levant and Egypt.
Casual conversations are of business, sports, food, and family, with a rare passing mention of Gaza, if at all.
But this surface-level apathy is misleading. The apparent lack of preoccupation with the conflict masks deep support for the Palestinians among average Saudis 鈥� and a simmering outrage over Israel鈥檚 deadly military offensive and total siege on Gaza.
鈥淪ome of us avoid the news because it hurts too much, not because we don鈥檛 care,鈥� says Noura, who works in retail and,聽like many in the story, gave only one name. 鈥淲e see ourselves in Palestinians and we feel their losses.鈥�
鈥淧alestinians are an inspiration. They stand up to injustice; they are not afraid to die. Palestinians stand up for all Arabs,鈥� Mohammed, a 30-year-old driver, said in Riyadh Saturday, hours into Hamas鈥� assault yet before the true extent of its massacre came to light.
Hamas鈥� killing of Israeli civilians and children is 鈥渦nacceptable鈥� and 鈥渦n-Islamic,鈥� says an electrical engineer who simply gave the name Saleh, worried about running afoul of political speech laws.聽He points out that Saudi Arabia and Israel have never been at war and that Israelis, Jews, and 鈥減eoples of all faiths are welcomed in Saudi Arabia.鈥�
He believes normalization and integration with Israel are in Saudi Arabia鈥檚 best interests, but that the ongoing war complicates any potential for Saudi Arabia and Israel to have full ties.
鈥淭he Israeli government is bombing women and children. They are using white phosphorus. They are cutting off electricity and water and starving Gazans,鈥� he says.
鈥淚s this a partner for peace? Can this be a partner for normalization?鈥�
Make progress, not war
The war threatens to upend聽more than just a normalization deal, but also a two-year trend聽of regional cooperation and rapprochement that Saudi Arabia has helped foster and is fighting to keep alive.
As part of the kingdom鈥檚 and crown prince鈥檚 rehabilitation on the world stage, the country has pursued reconciliation and聽rapprochement with various rivals and states from Qatar and Turkey to Iran and Yemen鈥檚 Houthis, as well as Syria鈥檚 Bashar al-Assad.
At the same time, it has preached cooperation as a way forward to address global challenges such as the pandemic and climate change.
Riyadh is host to a constant cycle of upbeat regional and international conferences tackling issues from health to artificial intelligence to climate, boosting innovation and a concept of 鈥渢ogetherness鈥� to take on global challenges.
鈥淲e are progressing and growing and leading. We all should be innovating and growing together to face the immense challenges such as climate change and food and water scarcity, not getting dragged down in war,鈥� says a second official Saudi source. 鈥淚t is such a waste. And it threatens all the good momentum we have.鈥�
Despite the stakes, Saudi Arabia is finding its leverage, and its room to maneuver, limited.
The kingdom has limited sway over the Islamist militant Hamas, whose ideology is at odds with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, save for Qatar.
Saudi Arabia recently made inroads with the Hamas leadership-in-exile when it invited a delegation led by political leader Ismail Haniyeh to perform the Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca in April, part of a failed attempt to reconcile Hamas and Fatah.
There are concerns in Riyadh, meanwhile, that Iran may be attempting to exacerbate the crisis to expand its influence among Palestinians, and that the timing of the operation was aimed at sabotaging Saudi Arabia鈥檚 normalization with Israel 鈥� a view shared by some citizens.
鈥淲e are worried that Hamas and Iran are trying to kill peace and the vision of the crown prince,鈥� says Amjad, who runs an agricultural company in Riyadh.
鈥淏ut with wisdom and hard work, we hope Saudi Arabia can keep the vision of peace alive in spite of them.鈥�
