Iran鈥檚 regime faces historic threat, but it鈥檚 not lacking in confidence
| London
The Islamic Republic of Iran, enduring waves of U.S. and Israeli military strikes, is seeking to project confidence, continuity, and defiance as it navigates its own survival through the most dangerous threat to its existence in its 47-year history.
That confidence is not bravado, analysts say, but deeply felt.
Politically, Iran鈥檚 embattled rulers and commanders moved seamlessly to appoint an interim leadership council, and they鈥檙e choosing a new supreme leader to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated Feb. 28 in the first wave of attacks.
Why We Wrote This
The U.S. and Israeli leaders have made it clear they want regime change in Iran. But the Islamic Republic had prepared for this day, with a political succession plan and a battlefield strategy. The result so far is Iranian confidence, despite the existential threat of the war.
On the battlefield, Iran鈥檚 top generals also have been killed. Yet its retaliatory missile and drone barrages, while diminished, continue to target Israel, American forces, and Gulf Arab states that host U.S. troops and interests.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel鈥檚 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have made it clear they want regime change in Iran, along with the destruction of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program and its sizable missile arsenal, as they seek to dismantle Iran鈥檚 ability to project power.
鈥淭his was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they鈥檙e down,鈥� Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Wednesday. 鈥淲e are accelerating, not decelerating. Iran鈥檚 capabilities are evaporating by the hour.鈥�
The strike intensity was double that of the U.S. 鈥渟hock and awe鈥� attack on Iraq in 2003, he said, and seven times that of Israel鈥檚 12-day air campaign against Iran last June.
Through its actions and pronouncements, Iran鈥檚 leadership aims to reverse the narrative it has been weakened 鈥� and is therefore ripe for collapse 鈥� by two years of military blows, as well as by widespread and corrosive popular discontent.
Iran 鈥渦pping the ante鈥�
鈥淭he main target is the calculus in Washington that [Mr. Trump and Israel] can just wage a war and then call a ceasefire, and that things will get back to normal,鈥� says Hassan Ahmadian, an assistant professor of Middle East and North Africa studies at Tehran University, contacted by phone.
Iran鈥檚 leaders 鈥渁ren鈥檛 willing to give Washington that, so they are upping the ante,鈥� he says, with retaliatory missile and drone strikes designed to exhaust Israeli and American air defense interceptors, before striking with the sizable Iranian arsenal that remains.
It鈥檚 a race against time, with the United States and Israel aggressively hunting Iran鈥檚 launchers and hidden missile and drone depots, to prevent just such an outcome.
In the first five days, the U.S. struck more than 2,000 targets in Iran, and Israel hit more than 600.
Since Saturday, Israel said Thursday, Iran has launched about 200 missiles and more than 120 drones, resulting in 10 鈥渟ignificant impacts.鈥� Hundreds more have been fired at Gulf countries, though often of shorter range.
The Pentagon said late Thursday that Iran鈥檚 ballistic missile firings had dropped 90% from the first days of fighting, and drone launches dropped 83%.
Much of Iran鈥檚 missile arsenal remains, even if Israel says it destroyed 200 of Iran鈥檚 estimated 400 launchers last June. Less than 20% of the 3,000 missiles that Israel estimated that Iran then possessed were used against Israel in the June war.
The June conflict, which followed nearly two years of fighting between Israel and Iran鈥檚 regional allies, started with a surprise Israeli attack that assassinated a swath of Iran鈥檚 commanders and nuclear scientists. It was joined by bunker-buster U.S. strikes against Iran鈥檚 nuclear program.
鈥淎fter that, the Iranians built and built, and got ready,鈥� says Dr. Ahmadian. 鈥淭he [ruling] system is projecting power, in terms of its institutions. [And] with its leader and commanders gone, it is standing up and fighting hard against the aggression.鈥�
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project
The late Mr. Khamenei prepared Iran鈥檚 current response based on lessons of the June war. Israel had begun running short of missile interceptors, and Iran鈥檚 later strikes, though fewer, were more destructive.
The supreme leader named several successor candidates, in case he was killed. He also ordered senior commanders to appoint officers three layers deep to step up if they, too, were assassinated.
The Iranian playbook
鈥淚n their heads, it鈥檚 an existential fight. The mindset is, we resist, or we get martyred while trying,鈥� says an Iran analyst with close access to policy circles in Iran, who asked not to be further identified.
鈥淲hat we are seeing now is the playbook, developed if all-out war broke out. ... A very detailed contingency plan,鈥� he says. 鈥淜eeping the military command operational was the key goal here. [In case] certain parts of this chain were disrupted 鈥� because of communications being cut, or undermined, or compromised 鈥� the different elements could work autonomously.鈥�
鈥淚 think they are pretty confident they can handle this [leadership] transition, on one hand, but also the military campaign, on the other,鈥� says the analyst.
鈥淲hether or not the calculus is up to the realities of Donald Trump, and Donald Trump鈥檚 presidency, is a big question,鈥� he adds. 鈥淎nd what if the dynamic of the situation changes? Can the preplanned military campaign and response be held back? Or is it on autopilot in a way that it cannot be stopped?鈥�
Iran鈥檚 Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said this week that Iranian military units had begun a decentralized 鈥渕osaic defense,鈥� and had become 鈥渋ndependent鈥� and 鈥渋solated鈥� as they carried out general orders issued in advance.
On Tuesday, two buildings were destroyed in Tehran and the holy Shiite city of Qom, where the 88-member Assembly of Experts would usually meet to choose a new supreme leader. Israel says any new leader will be targeted.
鈥淥bviously, the key will be how far the elimination operations of the Israelis go,鈥� says the analyst. 鈥淲e got a clear answer ... that they will try to eliminate all of them.鈥�
Iran鈥檚 broadcast narrative
Despite frequent airstrikes, the narrative broadcast from Tehran is rich with bombast.
鈥淭hey [U.S. forces] will be fully uprooted from the region,鈥� predicted Mohammad-Hassan Ghadiri-Abyaneh, a former Iranian ambassador.
鈥淭hey are within our crosshairs. ... They will be begging us for a ceasefire,鈥� he told state-run TV. 鈥淟uckily, people are standing firm and opposing a ceasefire. People are saying, 鈥楯ust hit them.鈥欌��
Iranian TV is awash with patriotic songs, religious recitations, and anthems celebrating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with a split screen showing Iranian missile impacts on regional targets. Highlighted is the 鈥渃onstant fear鈥� felt in Israel by Iran鈥檚 weapons prowess.
鈥淚ran will defeat the United States. Time will tell,鈥� Mohammad Marandi, a professor at the University of Tehran with close ties to the regime, told Britain鈥檚 Channel 4.
鈥淥ur drones that are being fired are very old drones. Our missiles ... are very old missiles. They鈥檙e very inexpensive. And Americans are using up very expensive air defense systems,鈥� said Dr. Marandi.
鈥淭he Iranians know exactly what they鈥檙e doing,鈥� he added. 鈥淲e haven鈥檛 even begun using our latest technology, and most of Iran鈥檚 underground bases haven鈥檛 even been used yet.鈥�
Aftermath of protests
Part of the U.S. calculation of regime vulnerability stems from the lethal crackdown on nationwide street protests in January, which resulted in more than 7,000 confirmed deaths in just two days. In the aftermath, some Iranians say they welcome foreign intervention.
鈥淥f course, there are many who are unhappy with the [ruling] system,鈥� says Tehran University鈥檚 Dr. Ahmadian. 鈥淏ut the other part of it is there are millions, also, who are backing the system. They are willing to fight for it, and they don鈥檛 want to see their country invaded.鈥�
One wild card is emerging along the border of western Iran, an ethnically Kurdish region where U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have been concentrated against Iran鈥檚 security forces and border posts.
The strikes are an apparent bid to pave the way for an armed incursion by Iranian Kurdish rebel fighters based in Iraqi Kurdistan. Some groups 鈥� which for years have waged a marginal insurgency from Iraq 鈥� have in recent months reportedly received fresh arms and training from the CIA.
The聽Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran鈥檚 Ministry of Intelligence issued a warning to leaders of Iraq鈥檚 Kurdistan Regional Government that they would deliver a 鈥渄ecisive, extremely severe, regret-inducing鈥� response if any 鈥渢errorist groups鈥� crossed the border into Iran.
鈥淭he rally around the flag 鈥� at least of people who are very much supportive of the [ruling] system 鈥� is happening,鈥� says Dr. Ahmadian. 鈥淎nd those who the Americans and Israelis believe will back the invasion, they are either standing against the aggression, or stepping aside and waiting to see what happens.鈥�
An Iranian researcher contributed to this report.
