Turkish opposition clings to election hopes against the odds
| Istanbul
Havva Nur 艦enel, a law student, was up all night last Sunday, nervously following Turkey鈥檚聽election results.
As she followed the live coverage on TV with her father, the 21-year-old first-time voter argued with him, challenging his support for the government. Phone in hand, she texted continuously with her politically like-minded friends as they boosted each other鈥檚 confidence that the opposition would win and their future would be bright.
Around 3 a.m. on Monday, Ms.聽艦enel realized it was not to be. Neither of the leading presidential candidates had won 50% of the vote, meaning there would be a runoff on May 28.
Why We Wrote This
Opponents of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an are poorly placed to unseat him in the second round of elections, but they are not giving up hope.
She was disappointed. But she was also relieved that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an had not won an outright victory.聽
鈥淐ompared to previous elections, we [the opposition] were successful,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e are happy that it has gone to a runoff. I knew it would be difficult to win in the first round.鈥�
Mr. Erdo臒an has won every national election he has contested since 2002, first for the post of prime minister and in 2018 for the presidency. Never has his lead been so narrow as it was on Sunday: 49.5% of the vote, against 44.9% for opposition leader Kemal K谋l谋莽daro臒lu.聽
But with expectations high that supporters of a far-right third-party candidate who won 5.3% of the vote will throw their votes to Mr. Erdo臒an in the runoff, the picture looks bleak for the opposition.聽
Licking wounds, but clinging to hope
At home, and internationally, observers have described this year鈥檚 presidential elections in Turkey as the most important anywhere, with implications for other democracies risking a slide towards more authoritarianism.
Opposition voters are licking their wounds and figuring out how to cope with their disappointment before they cast a ballot again. Many view this election as existential, their last chance to preserve their receding freedom of expression and to restore a battered economy.
鈥淩ight now, we are no longer fighting for an ideology, but for freedom, equality, our own future and life, where our fundamental rights are protected,鈥� declares Seda G枚k莽e, a documentary film producer.
Ms.聽G枚k莽e says she went silent immediately after she heard the election results. 鈥淚 wanted to withdraw, stay away from the news, cut off my communication with people as much as possible, and digest that disappointment,鈥� she says.
But she is going to vote again in the runoff, even though she harbors little hope for change.
Supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) believe only President Erdo臒an will protect Turkey鈥檚 national security and the religious family values on which he has built much of his success.
The country鈥檚 divided electorate is celebrating 100 years as a democratic republic with a secular constitution that stipulates the separation of religion and state.
鈥淚f Erdo臒an wins again, and he might ... things will go in a negative direction,鈥� says Erkan Saka, a media expert at Istanbul鈥檚 Bilgi University. Democracy will decline further, he fears.聽
Over the past decade, President Erdo臒an has jailed critics, stifled the media, and banned anti-government protests in the name of national security.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 see that there will be a massive crackdown because that already happened several times. There鈥檚 nothing much to crack down on,鈥� says Dr. Saka. 鈥淎nd I鈥檓 expecting a worse economic situation.鈥�
Though opposition voters were initially demoralized, Dr. Saka says, their fear of the consequences of an Erdo臒an victory has spurred them to renewed efforts. 鈥淭he coming days are important. How the opposition parties are dealing and managing this campaign is very critical,鈥� he says.
A civil discussion
Far-right nationalist Sinan O臒an, the third presidential candidate and potential kingmaker, surprised pollsters by taking 5.3% of last Sunday鈥檚 vote.聽
His electorate is more likely to vote for Mr. Erdo臒an in the second round because his religious and ultra-nationalist outlook resembles the president鈥檚 stance, says Valeria Giannotta, an Ankara-based political analyst at the European Institute for Eurasian Dialogue, a think tank. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very difficult to beat Erdo臒an,鈥� she says.
Ms. 艦enel, the law student, disagrees, confident that O臒an聽voters will switch to Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu because they share his belief in the nationalist vision of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, modern Turkey鈥檚 founder.聽
Strolling along the Istanbul waterfront earlier this week with her friend Ms. 艦enel, nursing student Nafise Aksoy says she has to live with her parents because inflation has pushed apartment rents beyond her reach. Nor does she find it easy to contemplate the consequences of Mr. Erdo臒an winning another five-year period in office.聽
鈥淚 can鈥檛 even think about Erdo臒an winning again. The stakes are too high. I was really down at first but I鈥檓 hopeful now,鈥� she says, if only because she has no other choice.
Sitting on a bench nearby overlooking the Bosporus, Soydan 脟etin, an architect, says the political system has become meaningless for him since Sunday. 鈥淚 feel like everything is fake,鈥� he says. But he will still be going to the polls for the runoff, just in case.
Mr.聽脟etin says he might even leave Turkey if Mr. Erdo臒an wins. 鈥淚 like my country, but with Erdo臒an, we鈥檙e headed for fascism,鈥� he fears.
A stranger sitting next to him on the bench overhears that comment and disagrees. 鈥淓rdo臒an keeps his promises,鈥� he interjects.
Mr.聽脟etin and the stranger, who turns out to be a middle-aged banker, have a civil discussion about the political situation, then laugh as they agree to disagree.
Despite their gloom, opposition voters are galvanizing each other into action.
Duygu 脰z眉nal, an industrial engineer who volunteered as an election monitor in a pro-government district for the first round of elections, says she is trying to avoid negativity.
鈥淚 think my biggest fear is despair because when there is no hope, you kind of give up. However, if Erdo臒an wins, the future of our society, the problems we are experiencing right now, the language of violence ... really frighten me,鈥� she says.
Ms. 脰z眉nal聽says she鈥檚 anxious, but she鈥檚 putting her nervous energy into organizing for the second round with her circle of volunteer election workers.
鈥淚 am still hopeful now,鈥� she says, 鈥渂ecause we are a substantial crowd who want to take care of our future, and there are many young people among us. I think that is very important.鈥�
