Libya elections: Can internal conflict move from bullets to ballots?
| AMMAN, Jordan
It was not the turning of the page that many had hoped for after years of conflict, but a callback to Libya鈥檚 troubled authoritarian past: a Qaddafi dressed in a distinctive brown turban and robe, addressing the nation on live television from Tripoli.
So attired, in February 2011, Muammar Qaddafi had vowed to amass an army of millions to 鈥渃leanse Libya inch by inch, house by house鈥� of pro-democracy protesters.
This time, on Nov. 14, it was Seif al-Islam Qaddafi, the slain dictator鈥檚 son, ceremoniously registering for Libya鈥檚 first-ever presidential election on Dec. 24, and asking for the people鈥檚 vote.
Why We Wrote This
In a nascent democracy, should accountability for alleged misdeeds be sacrificed on behalf of national unity? That鈥檚 a question Libyans are grappling with in a presidential election with few rules.
Yet Mr. Qaddafi, still subject to a decade-old International Criminal Court arrest warrant for alleged war crimes, was hardly the only controversial candidate.
Gen. Khalifa Haftar聽鈥� a warlord who ran eastern Libya as an independent entity, has styled himself as a strongman ruler similar to Egypt鈥檚 Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and laid siege to Tripoli just last year聽鈥� announced his candidacy two days later.
The initial reaction of many Libyans who are supporting the elections was: Well, that鈥檚 democracy.
But the question of who is and isn鈥檛 allowed to run has quickly become a new battleground in Libya聽鈥� politically, and potentially, militarily.
Much is riding on聽these聽elections, part of a political road map devised last year by the United Nations, Europe, and the United States after warring factions in the country鈥檚 east and west deadlocked. They were聽designed to unite a nation that has been divided by聽rival governments, foreign mercenaries, and proxy-warfare for most of the last decade.
Yet like much in Libya, whether someone聽is聽a democrat聽or聽a war criminal,聽or should be allowed to run, depends on聽whom you ask.
鈥淩ecipe for controversy鈥�
Dozens of individuals and groups are filing legal challenges against rival candidates, derailing several campaigns and threatening to unravel the polls themselves.
Late last week Libya鈥檚 electoral commission struck Mr. Qaddafi from the ballot as 鈥渋neligible,鈥� following a motion by a Tripoli military prosecutor who cited his conviction in absentia by a Libyan court in 2015 for war crimes committed as part of his father鈥檚 2011 crackdown.
Mr. Qaddafi鈥檚 lawyer sought to appeal the ruling, but an attack by gunmen allegedly loyal to a rival candidate prevented the attempt.
On Sunday, interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, a leading candidate, was ruled ineligible for violating the election law by not resigning his post prior to the polls. Efforts are underway to challenge Mr. Haftar鈥檚 candidacy over the Tripoli siege.
The elections were slated to coincide with the 70th anniversary of Libya鈥檚 independence, and a broad array of political factions supports this democratic initiative, which could put Libya under one leader for the first time since a NATO-assisted revolution overthrew the elder Mr. Qaddafi in 2011.
But observers caution that claims of voter fraud or irregularities, which have already led some to pick up arms once again, could plunge the country back into conflict.
鈥淭hese elections are potentially transformative in the sense that Libya鈥檚 fundamental political structure would change, but they are a recipe for controversy in the way the election has been framed and who can and cannot run,鈥� says Claudia Gazzini,聽a senior Libya analyst聽for the International Crisis Group. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a big risk.鈥�
Nearly 100 candidates registered for the presidential elections,聽organized by a hastily passed electoral law and without a clear vetting process. Most are expected to stay on the ballot, to be decided by 2.8 million registered voters across the country.
With so many candidates fracturing the vote among so few voters, a few聽hundred votes here or there could catapult one candidate or deny another from entering the second round.
Qaddafi in question
And Mr. Qaddafi鈥檚 candidacy offered a cautionary tale.
Some tribes and members of the Libyan public聽鈥撀爓ary of post-revolution corruption and violence聽鈥撀爃oped that a reformed Mr. Qaddafi, who had not been seen in public until registering as a candidate this month, would offer an alternative to revolutionaries in the western聽half of the country聽and the autocratic Mr. Haftar in the east.
Other Libyans said the聽Quran-quoting younger Mr. Qaddafi looked every bit a 鈥減erson that was religiously cleansed鈥� of his past mistakes.
Yet many rejected his candidacy.
鈥淥ur general preference is for new faces to take office, but currently almost all the candidates have been under the former regime in some way or the other,鈥� notes Wadah Alkeesh, a Libyan Red Cross worker.
Hassan Garsa, a human rights activist from Bani Waled, 100 miles southeast of Tripoli,聽is among those who threw their support behind the younger Mr. Qaddafi as someone they believed would 鈥渞eunite Libya through reconciliation.鈥�
He called Libyans鈥� accusations and the ICC warrant for Mr. Qaddafi 鈥渦nfounded allegations鈥� designed to torpedo his campaign.
Then there is the mercurial聽Mr. Haftar,聽who聽three years ago stated Libya was 鈥渘ot yet ripe for democracy.鈥� He is now asking for Libyans鈥� vote one year after he laid siege to a large segment of the population. 鈥淚 declare my candidacy for the presidency, not because I am chasing power but because I want to lead our people toward glory, progress, and prosperity,鈥� he said.
Still, other Libyans are聽supporting聽newcomers,聽such as聽Hatem El-Kour,聽a comedian, to provide them with聽鈥渁 break from the current hypocrisy.鈥�
And聽having聽General聽Haftar, along with other former members of the regime, vie for votes against businessmen and a comedian may be fruitful.
鈥淔or Libyans 鈥� to see these people who have dominated the past 11 years try and articulate a program, is not bad in of itself. In a way, it is cathartic,鈥� says Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert and senior fellow at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.
And if the strongmen and armed leaders fail to win large swaths of the vote, 鈥渋t could be therapeutic,鈥� he adds.
Legal framework
Not everyone is convinced, however, that the elections are being held under the right conditions.
鈥淎 new constitution should be issued first, banning 鈥� everyone from the regime from running or holding office in Libya,鈥� says Khaled Zintani, an aviation engineer in Tripoli. 鈥淭hese elections should not happen because they are not fair or just.鈥�
While the first round of presidential elections is slated for Dec. 24, the dates聽of the second round of presidential elections and parliamentary elections are not set. The election law does not give a mandatory time frame in which they should be held.
The聽eastern-Libya-based House of Representatives passed the election law without a vote, quorum, or input from many of Libya鈥檚 political factions. Due to a quirk in parliamentary procedure, it is free to amend the law at any time.
鈥淭he main problem is the lack of consensus on the legal framework for the upcoming elections since the country does not have a constitutional basis for either candidate criteria or the vote,鈥� Alessia Melcangi, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, writes via email.聽
鈥淎 delay or failure in the electoral process could risk dragging the country back into the abyss of war.鈥�
There has already been plenty of rule-bending and structural challenges:聽The number of voting stations outnumbers聽that of聽poll observers;聽and聽a de facto dividing line in the center of the country聽means聽representatives from candidates聽from the east or west will not be able to observe voting procedures in the other half of the country.
That聽leaves Libya聽vulnerable to聽accusations of vote-rigging and irregularities in rival regions 鈥� convenient for warlords and聽others with oversized聽personalities聽and聽bruised egos聽who are聽looking for blame should their election showings be less than stellar.
Some observers warn that many militia leaders may be paying lip service to the West 鈥� running on the ballot while readying their bullets for if and when the electoral process breaks down.
鈥淭hey want to show they are Jeffersonian democrats, peaceful individuals who tried to serve a nation that loves them, but in the end were robbed by bad guys on the other side who rigged the elections,鈥� says Mr. Harchaoui, the analyst.
鈥淏y claiming a conspiracy preventing them from reaching the finish line, they will have an excuse to revert to their coercive ways.鈥�
Yet despite fears and reservations, many Libyans聽are hopeful about choosing聽their leader for the very first time.
鈥淥f course, I will vote,鈥� says Mr. Alkeesh, the Libyan Red Cross worker. 鈥淢y vote matters, and it should for everyone else.鈥�
A Monitor correspondent contributed reporting from Tripoli, Libya.
