Afghanistan: Can social gains of last 20 years survive Taliban rule?
| LONDON and SEATTLE
In a rugged valley on the eastern edge of Afghanistan, Gul Nasar has seen his village grow and prosper since a U.S.-led military invasion toppled the Taliban in 2001.
Yet he could not be more concerned today, about which of those gains 鈥� if any 鈥撀爀ncompassing education, health care, and the economy, will endure renewed Taliban rule.
As disappointment with the first taste of Taliban control seeps into Mr. Nasar鈥檚 village, manifestations of such alarm are echoing across Afghanistan.
Why We Wrote This
The Taliban are back in control, but face an Afghan people protective of social gains made during the 20-year American presence 鈥� on women鈥檚 rights, health, education, and the economy.
Many Afghans see the hard-won progress of two decades jeopardized by a return to the heavy-handed rule of the archconservative jihadis, whose ranks include many who seem ill-prepared to take on the burden of governing.
The danger to women鈥檚 rights, the Taliban鈥檚 perennial dependence on Pakistan鈥檚 intelligence service, and the naming Tuesday of an all-male, Taliban-only interim government have prompted days of street protests in Kabul and other cities that have ended in gunfire and beatings.
鈥淢ost Afghans didn鈥檛 want [the Taliban]. We want to push back on this,鈥� says an Afghan administrator working for a foreign nonprofit in Kabul, referring especially to sentiment among the urban, educated population.
鈥淲e are not going quietly on this one. I am not sure if it means civil war, but it sure means people are not interested in just laying down and taking it. And there is a new generation of young people that is not scared of the Taliban.鈥�
Taliban fighters 鈥� who boast of a military victory over a superpower 鈥� have been flummoxed by Afghan women chanting the word 鈥渇reedom,鈥� disregarding guns pointed directly at them, and disobeying long-bearded fighters鈥� orders to disperse.
The new Afghanistan
The women鈥檚 steadfastness is just one element of the new Afghanistan.
鈥淎 lot happened in the last 20 years in terms of infrastructure, children鈥檚 education, and people having jobs,鈥� Mr. Nasar says of his remote village, recalling how he and fellow villagers built a multiroom school with big blackboards, colorful carpets, and windows that let in sunlight. Girls at the school had their first lessons in reading, writing, and math.
A pharmacist arrived to run a newly built health clinic. And villagers struggling to live off their small fields of corn and wheat got government jobs 鈥撀爉any with local security forces, which Mr. Nasar estimates brought $40,000 per month to the community.
鈥淎ll of that is just gone,鈥� says Mr. Nasar, who asked that a pseudonym be used to ensure his safety. The Taliban takeover means the school today has no teachers, the clinic no medicine, the local government no employees, and the villagers no more security force jobs.
Anger in the village is now setting in, says Mr. Nasar, after days of hiding in fear while the Taliban went joyriding in government trucks, leaving them banged up and out of gas on the side of the road.
鈥淧eople are really disappointed how the Taliban handled things 鈥� they took an existing government and turned it into trash,鈥� he says, scoffing that this generation of Taliban are 鈥渆xtremely uneducated people from the mountaintops.鈥�
鈥淭here is no clear direction,鈥� he adds, of the chaos. For the Taliban 鈥渋t鈥檚 on-the-job training.鈥�
Across the country, Afghans are raising questions about the impact of the Taliban鈥檚 lightning takeover as U.S. and NATO troops completed their withdrawal.
Billions of dollars in American and other Western aid had yielded dramatic social and economic change, and raised expectations among a new generation of Afghans 鈥� factors that the Taliban are already struggling to contend with.
In a bid Wednesday to stop anti-Taliban protests, the acting interior minister 鈥� Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is on an FBI 鈥渢errorism鈥� list, with a $10 million reward for information leading to his arrest 鈥撀爁orbade 鈥渋llegal鈥� demonstrations.
鈥淎 different generation鈥�
鈥淒id you see the protests? Was this possible 20 years back?鈥� asks Fawzia Koofi, a former deputy speaker of parliament.
Ms. Koofi, one of only two female members of the former government鈥檚 team at mostly unproductive peace talks in Qatar, was kept under house arrest in Kabul by Taliban guards for 10 days before Qatar negotiated her safe exit from Afghanistan.
鈥淚 have been telling the Taliban 鈥� that society has been transformed,鈥� she says. 鈥淭his is a different generation; they don鈥檛 let weapons and oppression govern over them. They will take the risk to their lives.
鈥淭his is a nation that will not go back, for sure,鈥� says Ms. Koofi, who has survived two Taliban assassination attempts and aims to quickly return to Kabul.
Over years of fighting, tens of thousands of Afghans have died, most often at the hands of Taliban insurgents. And the former U.S.-backed government was renowned for corruption and weak governance.
But 20 years of Western intervention also improved lives for millions of Afghans. Infant mortality plunged by more than 50%, life expectancy grew by a decade, and overall gross domestic product nearly tripled. By 2017, literacy among young men had increased 28%, and among women by 19%, according to a U.S. government auditing agency.
Afghanistan had developed a vibrant media, a noisy political scene and all the trappings of a state, and an ever-growing awareness of civil and women鈥檚 rights.
So the learning curve has been steep for the Taliban, who readily admit they were not ready to take sole control and govern.
鈥淩unning a country is different from being in the mountains, running a group of 10 people,鈥� says Ms. Koofi. 鈥淭hey are accountable now, but聽they are far from that,鈥� she says. If 鈥渦nprofessional [Taliban] members鈥� are appointed to head institutions without consideration for 鈥済ender or ethnic, religious, and sectarian inclusion, I think it鈥檚 hard for those institutions to survive.鈥�
Indeed, the Taliban 鈥渟howed little interest in running public services,鈥� either during their rule from 1996 to 2001, or in areas under their control since then, according to a report this week by the Kabul-based Afghanistan Analysts Network. 鈥淚t is unclear if they appreciate the full scale of the looming economic disaster,鈥� it read.
Urgent needs
But time is short, as public services collapse, the economy melts down, and drought looms over one-third of the country.
This week, the United Nations launched an emergency appeal for $606 million, noting that even before the mid-August Taliban takeover 鈥撀爓hen virtually all donor funds to Afghanistan were frozen 鈥撀爏ome 18.4 million Afghans were in need of assistance. One-third of the population faced 鈥渃risis or emergency levels of food insecurity,鈥� and the country 鈥渢eeters on the brink of universal poverty.鈥�
The World Health Organization warned, too, that the 鈥渂ackbone鈥� of Afghanistan鈥檚 health care system is in danger, with the imminent closure of more than 2,000 health facilities, due to the funding pause.
Amid the turmoil, Afghans wonder how key social changes of the last 20 years will translate.
On girls鈥� education, forbidden outright by the Taliban 25 years ago, 鈥渢he spectrum has slid,鈥� says a Western analyst who asked not to be named while his organization evacuates staff from Afghanistan. 鈥淣o one, even in the Taliban ranks, is gaining any traction by saying, 鈥楴o education for girls, period.鈥欌��
The same may be true for health, after two decades that have seen fundamental gains, including for women saved during childbirth by legions of newly educated midwives.
鈥淓verybody in Afghanistan, no matter how rural and remote they are, now believes that they do deserve, and have a right to, public health,鈥� says the analyst.
鈥淏ut guess what? The more conservative you get, the more important it is that the people providing health services to women are themselves women,鈥� notes the analyst. 鈥淏ut where do those women doctors come from?鈥�
First steps
The first signs are not encouraging. The Taliban this week reinstated its Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, whose whip-wielding enforcers in the 1990s struck fear into the hearts of many Afghans, while apparently doing away with the Ministry of Women鈥檚 Affairs.
鈥淭hey are not going to start making compromises to work with everyone else in Afghan civil society until they feel like they have eliminated threats,鈥� says the analyst. But, of Taliban statements of moderation, he adds: 鈥淚鈥檓 inclined to believe it is not all just window dressing.鈥�
The Taliban 鈥渉ave pulled off something that very few insurgencies, anywhere on the face of the earth in the last 100 years, have been able to manage,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd that speaks to a degree of sophistication and strategic thinking that tells me that they do understand that they can鈥檛 hold the entire country together through intimidation and beatings, and a secret police force.鈥�
That would be good news to one out-of-work teacher of English and math at a private, coeducational school in Jalalabad, who asked that his name not be used for fear of retaliation. He remembers the intense focus on religious texts long ago, when he was a high school and university student under Taliban rule.
These days, economic uncertainty and hardship have kept students away from the many private schools and colleges that have sprung up since 2001, he says.
With his school now closed, he is working in his family鈥檚 shop, unsure whether he will teach again.
He hopes his expectations are wrong: 鈥淚 am afraid that education will be going backward.鈥�
