The Taliban are back in power. But how will they govern?
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
When gun-toting Taliban fighters stormed the compound of her small community aid organization on the outskirts of Kabul, Afghanistan, Marnie Gustavson feared the worst.
Ms. Gustavson, who had followed U.S. Embassy guidelines to evacuate, learned from her security personnel when she landed in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, that fighters had overwhelmed the organization鈥檚 unarmed security guards, stolen trucks, and kidnapped her head manager.
鈥淭hings moved so fast,鈥� says Ms. Gustavson, executive director of PARSA, a grassroots nongovernmental organization in Afghanistan since 1996. 鈥淚 wasn鈥檛 prepared for the Taliban to come to the gates of Kabul and for the Afghan government to simply melt away and disappear, leaving the population unprotected.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
With the Taliban set to reimpose their strict version of Islamic law, Afghans may wonder how that will work. Some things are clear: Afghanistan has changed, and to govern, the Taliban likely need help.
Then, almost as quickly, the crisis gave way to a tense calm. Taliban leaders freed PARSA鈥檚 manager from the armed foot soldiers, and the next morning sent guards to protect the compound.
Days later they granted PARSA the authorization to continue operations.
The Taliban鈥檚 mixed signals left Ms. Gustavson and her staff wondering, 鈥淲hat鈥檚 coming at us next?鈥� she says in an interview in Seattle.
With the completion this week of the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, Taliban fighters in Kabul fired automatic rifles into the air to celebrate their military victory and seizure of power. But Afghans and foreigners alike are now watching and waiting anxiously to see how the militant Islamic group will govern.
Despite toned-down rhetoric coming from Taliban officials in Kabul, actions on the ground signal that the Taliban remain fully committed to their conservative version of Islamic law and will work to impose that on the Afghan people, experts say.
Yet the Taliban face major challenges. They lack the plans, expertise, and control needed to run the country 鈥� especially an Afghanistan radically different than it was when the Taliban first took power in 1996.
Shaped by the crucible of war and exile overseas, the Taliban may show greater pragmatism, bending to political necessity even while holding to core, hard-line values, the experts say.
鈥淭heir ideological makeup may not have changed, but the generational change and the experience has made them more realists,鈥� says Hassan Abbas, professor of International Relations at the National Defense University in Washington, and author of 鈥淭he Prophet鈥檚 Heir.鈥�
Savvier leadership
Wearing a black turban and wire-rimmed glasses, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen sat calmly next to the white flag of the Taliban鈥檚 Islamic Emirate for a mid-August interview with CNN and assured Afghans they would be safe under Taliban rule. Afghans 鈥渟hould not be terrified,鈥� he said.
Now a ubiquitous media figure, despite the Taliban鈥檚 banning of television during their 1996-2001 rule, Mr. Shaheen tweets cheerful messages such as 鈥淭ime to roll up sleeves and build Afghanistan,鈥� along with a video of road construction. Another video shows Afghan girls entering a school, with the tweet 鈥渂ack to school in a new Afghanistan.鈥�
Former Taliban diplomats such as Mr. Shaheen, a fluent English speaker with a university degree, are the relatively polished, political face of today鈥檚 Taliban, aiming to assure Afghans and the world that they do not seek violent retribution.
Yet many Afghans and outside experts view this as a cosmetic change, aimed at cleaning up the movement鈥檚 image.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e gotten savvier in their public relations. They鈥檙e so on message, compared to the 1990s when they were all over the place,鈥� says Ashley Jackson, author of 鈥淣egotiating Survival: Civilian-Insurgent Relations in Afghanistan.鈥�
鈥淭he leadership core is more worldly,鈥� in contrast with the 1990s when 鈥渢hey were very naive about the consequences of their actions and the global perception of them,鈥� says Ms. Jackson, co-director of the Centre for Study of Armed Groups at the Overseas Development Institute, an independent think tank based in London.
Reports of executions
Yet across Afghanistan, the Taliban have continued to prove themselves capable of harsh, arbitrary punishments, assassinations, and other human rights abuses reminiscent of their prior regime.
Just days after Kabul fell, Taliban fighters opened fire on a crowd of protesters waving the black, red, and green flag of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in the eastern city of Jalalabad, killing three people, Reuters .
The United Nations鈥� human rights commissioner, Michelle Bachelet, last week of the Taliban executing civilians and Afghan security forces who were surrendering, among other 鈥渟erious鈥� violations. She warned that thousands of people were at risk of Taliban retribution, including civil society members, journalists, professionals, and former security personnel.
On Aug. 27, the Taliban reportedly executed a popular Afghan folk singer, Fawad Andarabi, days after a Taliban spokesman said music was forbidden in Islam 鈥� echoing a prior ban on music. In an interview with The New York Times, spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the Taliban sought to 鈥減ersuade鈥� Afghans to forgo music in public.
And in a chilling reminder of past Taliban massacres of ethnic minorities, Taliban fighters tortured and killed nine ethnic Hazara men after seizing control of the southeastern province of Ghazni in July, according to an Amnesty International investigation.
Afghan women in particular are facing major setbacks.
A Taliban spokesman urged women last week to stay home lest Taliban fighters 鈥渕istreat鈥� them. This followed Taliban pledges to protect the rights of women 鈥渁ccording to Islamic principles鈥� 鈥� the same formula espoused for women鈥檚 rights from 1996 to 2001, when women were barred from school, had to wear head-to-toe coverings called burqas, and could only work in the medical profession.
鈥淭hey have their own framework of Islam, and it鈥檚 way out of the mainstream,鈥� says Heather Barr, associate director of the Women鈥檚 Rights Division at Human Rights Watch.
Afghan women 鈥渄on鈥檛 believe anything鈥� the Taliban say, says Ms. Barr, noting that many women 鈥� including prominent female Afghan politicians, journalists, and others 鈥� are fleeing the country.
鈥淚 left the country because, like millions of people, I fear the Taliban,鈥� female anchor Beheshta Arghand told CNN.
Different reception this time
In 1996, the Taliban took power in much of Afghanistan without firing a shot. Afghans exhausted and impoverished by civil war welcomed the Islamic fighters for overcoming warlords and lawlessness and restoring a modicum of order.
鈥淭he people of Jalalabad threw flowers, food, and money at the militia, praying that peace might at last be restored,鈥� wrote the Monitor鈥檚 John Zubrzycki on Sept. 20, 1996.
Today, the Taliban鈥檚 arrival in what are relatively modern, open cities with vibrant civil societies has had the opposite impact. It has created a political power vacuum, thrown the economy into free fall, and sent people into hiding.
Afghans dread the Taliban, a group surveys consistently find is unpopular. In a 2019 poll by the Asia Foundation, for example, 85% of Afghans expressed no sympathy for the Taliban. As a result, thousands of Afghans 鈥� many of them professionals 鈥� have fled or are attempting to flee.
For their part, the Taliban are aware they badly need expertise to govern, and have attempted to stop people from leaving 鈥� setting up checkpoints and whipping and beating Afghans trying to enter the airport.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the Taliban stepped into Kabul with a 鈥� blueprint for governance,鈥� says Ms. Jackson at the Overseas Development Institute. 鈥淚 think they鈥檙e really scrambling to figure out how to keep this whole [country] going.鈥�
The Taliban are 鈥渓ike an octopus,鈥� she says, with different political factions and power centers run with a loose consensus. Leaders lack absolute control over fighters.
A key question going forward is to what extent the Taliban will be willing to share power and compromise to create the 鈥渂road-based鈥� government Taliban leaders say they want. Or, alternatively, experts say, will the Taliban revert to more repression, which would impact urban populations most heavily?
鈥淜abul will not be the kind of open place it was, and that is a reality,鈥� says Professor Abbas at the National Defense University. 鈥淓ven if we have moderate Taliban 鈥� who try to create stability and peace 鈥� that educated urban elite will find it very difficult to coexist with the Taliban,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat can lead to a strong crackdown.鈥�
