In Taliban鈥檚 Afghanistan, opportunity for Al Qaeda, ISIS
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
Twenty-five years ago, when the Taliban first took power in Afghanistan, the militants held a press conference to declare their opposition to terrorism and spreading radical Islam.
鈥淩egarding international terrorism, we are totally against that,鈥� Mohammed Stanakzai, then deputy foreign minister of the Taliban鈥檚 provisional government, said in October 1996, vowing to 鈥減unish鈥� any troublemakers, according to news accounts.
Yet five years later, Al Qaeda used its base and training camps in Afghanistan to help orchestrate the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Four civilian airliners were hijacked 鈥� two that felled the World Trade Center, a third that crashed into the Pentagon, and a fourth into a field in Pennsylvania. Nearly 3,000 people were killed, the deadliest terrorist attack in history.
Why We Wrote This
As it negotiated its exit from Afghanistan, the U.S. relied, in part, on Taliban pledges to curb terrorism. The Kabul attack underscores experts鈥� doubts about the militants鈥� abilities, and intentions.
Now the Taliban are back in power in Kabul, again pledging not to allow any group, including Al Qaeda, to use Afghan soil to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.
But on the Taliban鈥檚 watch, and with their forces patrolling Kabul, a suicide bomber on Thursday inflicted the biggest mass-casualty attack on U.S. troops in Afghanistan in a decade 鈥� and one of the heaviest losses of American lives in a single attack of the war. An Islamic State terrorist affiliate, ISIS-Khorasan, a 鈥渟worn enemy鈥� of the Taliban, claimed responsibility.
Thirteen American service members, and according to reports Friday, a staggering 169 Afghans, were killed in the attack at Kabul airport. And there reportedly are warnings that more attacks in Kabul are possible.
At a minimum, the attack Thursday underscores how the Taliban have failed to stop a terrorist group operating within Afghanistan鈥檚 borders from attacking U.S. targets, terrorism experts say. Moreover, they add, the Taliban鈥檚 factional divisions and differences between leadership and foot soldiers leave open the possibility that more radical Taliban elements could facilitate terror attacks.
Security vacuums
鈥淚SIS-Khorasan and the Taliban are ... sworn enemies ... but that doesn鈥檛 mean that the Taliban has the wherewithal to keep ISIS under control,鈥� says Nathan Sales, former State Department coordinator for counterterrorism and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
鈥淎s the Taliban tries to consolidate power, it鈥檚 going to be tested in its ability to provide security in the country,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he security vacuums that are going to develop under Taliban control will create opportunities for ISIS to thrive in Afghanistan.鈥�
Meanwhile, the terrorism experts stress that the Taliban maintain a close partnership with Al Qaeda as well as ties with many other Islamic extremist groups they are not inclined to expel.
鈥淲e should never trust the Taliban when American lives are at stake,鈥� Ambassador Sales says.
A case in point, he says: A Taliban spokesperson said in an interview broadcast Wednesday that there is 鈥渘o proof鈥� that Osama bin Laden was involved in the Sept. 11 attacks, despite documentation that the Al Qaeda leader, killed by Navy SEALs in Pakistan in 2011, plotted the strikes.
鈥淭he group that harbored Al Qaeda ... which gave us 9/11, and refused to hand over bin Laden 鈥� they鈥檙e right now back where they were two decades ago,鈥� Ambassador Sales says. 鈥淭he new Taliban is the same as the old Taliban.鈥�
ISIS-K鈥檚 fingerprints
Experts said the attack Thursday bore the hallmarks of ISIS-K, which was founded in 2015 and headquartered in Afghanistan鈥檚 Khorasan province.
鈥淚t was low-tech, complex ... and makes the Taliban appear too weak to control their own territory,鈥� says Douglas London, former CIA counterterrorism chief for South and southwest Asia. 鈥淭hey have been a particularly resilient organization because they have decentralized and have multiple small and independent cells,鈥� he says.
President Joe Biden ordered the U.S. military to plan operations to hit ISIS-K 鈥渁ssets, leadership, and facilities鈥� whenever and wherever the U.S. government chooses. 鈥淲e will hunt you down and make you pay,鈥� he said at .
Mr. Biden stressed that ISIS-K is 鈥渁n archenemy of the Taliban,鈥� and said there was no evidence of collusion between the two groups. The Taliban also condemned the attack. Yet while the Taliban have battled against ISIS-K for years and seek to crush it as a competing organization, experts say, they have so far failed to do so.
And while the Taliban oppose ISIS-K, they have long-standing, close ties with Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups present in Afghanistan that they have fought alongside and are highly unlikely to abandon, experts say.
More than a partner, 鈥淎l Qaeda is integrated into the Taliban, literally intermarried into the Taliban at all sorts of levels into the second generation of Al Qaeda kids鈥� born in Afghanistan since the 1980s, says Mr. London. 鈥淭he Taliban is not going to go after family members.鈥�
Haqqani network
The Taliban have relied heavily on Al Qaeda for funding in the past, and continue to depend on it for expertise, including the training of the Taliban鈥檚 elite fighting elements, such as their 鈥渞ed units,鈥� he says. While Al Qaeda鈥檚 presence in Afghanistan has dwindled, it has between several dozen and 500 fighters across about 15 provinces, according to a in June.
鈥淟arge numbers of Al Qaeda fighters and other foreign extremist elements aligned with the Taliban are located in various parts of Afghanistan,鈥� the report said.
鈥淚t is impossible to assess with confidence that the Taliban will live up to its commitment to suppress any future international threat emanating from Al Qaeda in Afghanistan,鈥� it concluded, noting how 鈥淎l Qaeda and like-minded militants continue to celebrate developments in Afghanistan as a victory for the Taliban鈥檚 cause and thus for global radicalism.鈥�
The Taliban group with the closest ties to Al Qaeda is the Haqqani network, considered the Taliban鈥檚 most combat-ready force, which has reportedly taken charge of security in Kabul. Some intelligence indicates tactical collaboration may exist based on personal ties between members of the Haqqani network and ISIS-K commanders, according to the U.N. report.
The Taliban鈥檚 takeover of Afghanistan escalates the risk of a resurgence of terrorist groups in the country, posing dangers to neighboring countries 鈥� including Pakistan 鈥� as well as to the rest of the world, experts say, especially in the wake of the U.S. military withdrawal.
That risk is one reason nations should not formally recognize the Taliban government, they say.
鈥淭he Taliban-Al Qaeda terrorist syndicate has returned to Kabul,鈥� says Bradley Bowman, director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies鈥� Center on Military and Political Power in Washington. 鈥淚f you recognize the Taliban, you鈥檙e essentially recognizing Al Qaeda.鈥�
Staff writer Howard LaFranchi contributed to this report.
