Why Lebanese protesters are risking a return to the streets
| London
Nisrine Hammoud, a veteran Lebanese protester, could not believe what she was seeing last week in her northern city of Tripoli.
Enraged anew at a swift economic collapse that deepened both their poverty and their hunger, fellow demonstrators broke the country鈥檚 COVID-19 curfew and took to the streets.
While the anger against a corrupt political elite and decades of sectarian rule that sparked hundreds of thousands of Lebanese to rise up last October have not disappeared, the government wasted little time citing the pandemic to dismantle remaining protest camps in late March.
Why We Wrote This
A defiant wave of Lebanese protests last fall sought to fundamentally change a political system seen as corrupt. Now, amid a pandemic, poverty and hunger is renewing the protesters鈥� willingness to take risks.
But in recent weeks, the virus lockdown has triggered additional pain: massive job losses and a currency in free fall have wiped out savings, caused a dollar shortage and soaring prices, and sparked new levels of desperation.
Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service,聽all our coronavirus coverage聽is free. No paywall.
The result is that Lebanon鈥檚 legions of protesters 鈥� furious, and more widely poor and hungry than ever before 鈥� have arrived at a breaking point, where anger at the lack of political change overcomes the fear of infection. While only the latest episode in a decade of dramatic, regime-changing unrest across the Arab world, analysts note that Lebanese protesters are the first to disregard the virus in their demand for wholesale change.
The anger spilled over first in Tripoli, Lebanon鈥檚 second city in one of its poorest regions, where protesters risked infection, tear gas, and live fire from the army 鈥� which left one man dead 鈥� to burn banks, battle security forces, and declare their fresh uprising a 鈥渉unger revolution.鈥�
鈥淔or them, it鈥檚 a lose-lose situation,鈥� says Ms. Hammoud, a 20-something activist from Tripoli, about those who are demonstrating again. 鈥淭hey will tell you, 鈥榃e鈥檙e going to die of hunger, so it鈥檚 either coronavirus or hunger.鈥� They don鈥檛 even care anymore. They are going to lose anyway; that鈥檚 why they are on the street.鈥�
On top of quarantine job losses and a currency that lost 60% of its value in just weeks, there is additional stress during Ramadan. The holy month of fasting has been transformed by social distancing requirements that limit family gatherings and by high prices that cap meal size.
鈥淭he first time they did a protest [breaking the lockdown], everyone was complaining,鈥� says Ms. Hammoud, who聽first spoke with the Monitor last November, a Lebanese flag draped across her shoulders, at a cluster of protest tents in Martyrs鈥� Square in central Beirut.
鈥淓ven we, the people that usually join the protest, were complaining, saying, 鈥楾his is not the right time for it. There is a virus; what are you guys doing?鈥欌�� says Ms. Hammoud. 鈥淏ut then, with time, we couldn鈥檛 complain anymore, because we knew that they are going through hell.鈥�
Lebanon鈥檚 protests have brought the country to the brink of chaos before, forcing a prime minister to resign. They鈥檙e part of a revival of Arab world anti-government protests 鈥� a so-called Arab Spring 2.0 鈥� that began last autumn and took hold from Algeria and Sudan to Iraq and Lebanon.
Rami Khouri, the renowned journalist and a professor at the American University of Beirut, says the latest outburst in Lebanon is a 鈥渢urning point鈥� 鈥� defying a pandemic to challenge entrenched and uncaring politicians 鈥� but should be seen as part of a longer-term Arab transformation.
The greater danger
鈥淚t really is one regional wave in which government or political authorities 鈥撀爉ost of which are military-linked, or sectarian oligarchies 鈥撀爃ave steadily lost their credibility, efficacy, and legitimacy,鈥� says Professor Khouri, who is also a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. 鈥淭he citizenry, in the meantime, in tandem, has been steadily pauperized, marginalized, and treated with disdain.鈥�
It鈥檚 not just that they are hungry, because people 鈥渉ave been hungry for a while,鈥� says Professor Khouri. But it is the combination of a large majority that is now 鈥渙fficially poor,鈥� work stoppages, and no apparent end to 鈥渄ysfunctional management and corruption,鈥� that have made COVID-19 appear to be the lesser danger.
鈥淭hey say, 鈥楲et me die from the virus, but if I have a chance to bring about a better government, and have a better life for my kids, then [let me] risk that,鈥欌�� he says.
鈥淔or many people, life has lost its meaning. That sounds crazy, but people don鈥檛 do what they are doing lightly,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 confront armies firing at them lightly, or the virus, or the power of the sectarian militias that are unleashed on them every once in a while.
鈥淭hey need to be driven by some kind of really intense, almost insane force to get them to do this,鈥� he adds. 鈥淎nd that, as far as I can see, is their own sense of dehumanization.鈥�
Indeed, even if demonstrators are not making an explicit virus-versus-bullets computation, Lebanon鈥檚 unprecedented economic crisis now overshadows all else.
鈥淧rotesters who have been arrested have spoken of being tortured in custody, beaten viciously and electrocuted by army intelligence units,鈥� Lina Mounzer, a writer and translator in Beirut, in The New York Times. 鈥淎gainst these horrors and the everyday despair of no longer being able to afford the simplest things, the threat of the virus, despite 741 cases and 25 deaths in Lebanon so far, has faded into abstraction.鈥�
Lebanon鈥檚 protests managed to force the resignation of one prime minister, but a long-awaited five-year economic recovery package, promised months ago and heavily dependent on winning International Monetary Fund aid, was only announced last week.
The small nation鈥檚 vital statistics are as bad as at any time since the end of the 1975-90 civil war. Lebanon shoulders more than $90 billion of debt and defaulted on sovereign debt payments for the first time in March.
Those factors, and the clear unwillingness of Lebanon鈥檚 political elite 鈥� whose sectarian rule for decades has been based on plundering national resources to benefit party clients 鈥� have made international donors wary of helping without seeing reforms first.
Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, said Monday that Lebanon鈥檚 plan was 鈥渁n important step forward,鈥� and that talks would begin on 鈥渕uch needed reforms.鈥� But Maha Yahya, head of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, wrote in an analysis days earlier that most of the obvious reforms 鈥渨ould undermine the vested interests of the politicians and the parties, who thus far have proven unwilling to accept the pain of adjustment.鈥�
The renewal of street protests, despite the coronavirus, 鈥渋mplicitly assumes that the public has no expectation that the politicians will address the root causes of the country鈥檚 financial crisis,鈥� writes Ms. Yahya. 鈥淲hat Lebanon is facing today is likely to last for years, and the chances of recovery are thin.鈥�
Post-pandemic plans
That is the calculation anti-government activists are making, as they prepare for the next round of post-pandemic protests.
鈥淧eople think that, after the lockdown, we are going to go back to universities, schools, and jobs, but we know that鈥檚 not going to happen,鈥� says Ms. Hammoud in Tripoli. 鈥淲e鈥檙e all going to hit the streets again. It鈥檚 going to be even more aggressive this time.鈥�
In the meantime, she and her fellow activists are gathering donations for food distributions, so far to hundreds of families, to prevent them from being catered to during Ramadan by political parties that will demand support in return.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 what we are afraid of, because [people] are so, so vulnerable that they can be easily controlled all over again,鈥� she says.
Indeed, the coronavirus has been used as an excuse by the political elite not to act quickly or decisively on economic reforms, says Professor Khouri.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 the danger: A lot of action happens, but no change happens,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he question then becomes: If the protesters then go back home, how long can they withstand this? We don鈥檛 know. Nobody knows the answer to that.
鈥淲hat is clear is that when you get millions of people in desperate situations, they eventually do something,鈥� says Professor Khouri. 鈥淎nd they鈥檝e started to do something.鈥�
Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service,聽all our coronavirus coverage聽is free. No paywall.
