Annexation: What it means for Israel, the Palestinians, and peace
| TEL AVIV
Even before President Donald Trump announced the heavily pro-Israel details of his long-awaited Middle East peace deal, the demands were growing from Israel鈥檚 right wing to annex portions of the occupied West Bank.
And in the jumbled aftermath of the announcement a week ago, in which members of the Trump administration contradicted each other on whether the two-state plan authorized Israel to act unilaterally and immediately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, locked in another tight election campaign, appeared poised to do just that.
But observers fear that immediate annexation would turn into an infamous watershed: closing the door on the possibility of a negotiated two-state deal, undermining Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his government, rupturing Israel鈥檚 peace with Jordan, and challenging Israel鈥檚 most fundamental assumptions about itself.
Why We Wrote This
Mideast peace initiatives through the years have always had their detractors, and the Trump plan is no exception. Perhaps its most explosive idea is that Israel could unilaterally annex portions of the West Bank.
鈥淚n every criteria that I鈥檓 trying to assess it, it鈥檚 disastrous. In security, in diplomacy, in Israel鈥檚 legitimization in the international community, in the internal schism that he would create in Israel,鈥欌�� says Gilead Sher, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies who was a peace negotiator two decades ago under former Prime Minister Ehud Barak.
鈥淭he meaning鈥� of annexation, he says, 鈥渋s a divergence from the founding vision of the State of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, and moral state; with recognized borders and international legitimacy.鈥�
Amid enormous pressure from Israeli settlers to act, Prime Minister Netanyahu initially had planned a cabinet vote on annexation on Sunday, but the U.S. administration persuaded him to hold off until after Israel鈥檚 March 2 election. On Tuesday, Mr. Netanyahu promised to immediately bring annexation to a vote if he wins, saying, 鈥淲e won鈥檛 let this great opportunity slip from our grasp.鈥�
The plan鈥檚 tacit support for near-term annexation of portions of the West Bank and the Jewish settlements, even before a negotiated deal, turned previous conflict-resolution paradigms on their heads.
The so-called 鈥淒eal of the Century鈥� envisions Jewish settlements and the Jordan Valley 鈥� some 30% of the West Bank and nearly all of the 427,000 Jewish residents there 鈥� being incorporated into Israel. A handful of Israeli settlements would remain as enclaves within the Palestinian state, and Israel would have to observe a building freeze in those areas.
In return for the annexation of West Bank lands, the plan suggested, subject to approval, that Israel would swap Israeli Arab towns adjacent to the West Bank as well as portions of the Negev desert.
But, Mr. Sher argues, since unilateral annexation would be rejected by the Palestinians and preclude formation of a Palestinian state on the remaining land, it would create a one-state reality between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. And that, he said, would force Israel to choose between offering citizenship to 2.2 million Palestinians residing in the West Bank 鈥� creating a binational state 鈥� or relegating them to a permanent autonomy akin to apartheid.
鈥淶ionism never aspired to govern another people,鈥� he says.
Palestinian Authority
Unilateral annexation also would weaken the credibility of the doctrine President Abbas has advocated for the last 15 years 鈥� negotiating a peace with Israel while rejecting an armed conflict.聽聽
鈥淭his is a big strike at the strategy that the current Palestinian leadership is promoting: a two-state solution through peaceful negotiations,鈥欌�� says Ghassan Khatib, a professor at Birzeit University in the West Bank and a former Palestinian Authority spokesman. 鈥淭his is what [Mr. Abbas] stands for politically, and it鈥檚 not working. So, he is in big trouble because this is creating a big gap between the public and the leadership in Palestine.鈥�
Before gaining statehood, the Palestinians would have to meet a number of Israeli and U.S. prerequisites, such as disarming Hamas and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state. Few expect the Palestinian leadership to comply with such conditions.
Mr. Abbas, who wasn鈥檛 invited to the White House rollout of the plan, is already in a weak position. Nearly two-thirds of Palestinians want the Palestinian Authority president, originally聽elected in 2005 to a five-year term, to resign.
Moreover, many Arab governments in the region are focused inward, and on developing fledgling ties with Israel, rather than focused on the Palestinian cause. That said, the Arab League decision Saturday to explicitly reject the Trump plan was a positive surprise for the Palestinian leadership. Mr. Abbas鈥� defiance has also won praise from politicians in his rival, Hamas, the Islamist militant group that controls the Gaza Strip.
Annexation, however, is liable to undermine security coordination between Israel and the Palestinian security forces. It could also prompt a spike in unrest in the Palestinian territories 鈥� scenarios that could lead to the unraveling of the Palestinian government.
鈥淭he Palestinian leadership has to ask themselves difficult questions about how they can effectively counter this plan,鈥欌�� says Tareq Baconi, an analyst on Israel and the Palestinians at the International Crisis Group. 鈥淭he present trajectory is very much moving away from any kind of viable Palestinian state.鈥�
Analysts believe annexation could spur unrest in Jordan, which has a Palestinian majority, and threaten the stability of the monarchy, which has been a quiet strategic partner of Israel.
Legal status
Unlike East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed and are under Israeli civil law, the West Bank is under the legal regime of Israel鈥檚 military government.
Many observers, however, consider Israel鈥檚 policy of promoting settlement expansion as a de facto annexation. Mr. Baconi notes that Israel鈥檚 government has taken steps in recent years that effectively advanced de jure annexation, such as聽passing a law allowing settlement housing on Palestinian property to be retroactively legalized.聽
On Tuesday, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that annexation of the West Bank, if implemented, 鈥渃ould not pass unchallenged.鈥� Indeed, the Palestinians could use annexation to challenge Israel in international forums and in international courts.
The International Criminal Court is already mulling the merits of a potential war crimes suit against Israel for actions in Gaza and the West Bank; annexation would likely strengthen the case, says Michael Sfard, an Israeli human rights lawyer who has represented Palestinians in the West Bank against the government.
Annexation would complicate cooperation with countries whose policy it is to differentiate between Israel and the occupied territories and 鈥渆liminate the only possible defense from the charge of apartheid 鈥� that the discrimination of a dominated group is temporary,鈥� he says.
Israeli politics
For years, residents of the settlements have lobbied Israel鈥檚 government to pursue annexation, hanging roadside signs in the West Bank calling for 鈥渟overeignty.鈥� The settler right wing considers annexation a recreation of the Jewish people鈥檚 historic presence in biblical Judea and Samaria.
Establishing a Palestinian state on 70% of the West Bank, on the other hand, is viewed as blasphemy. After Mr. Netanyahu backed down from immediate annexation, settler leader David Elhayani complained in the newspaper Makor Rishon that the prime minister was tricked by President Trump.
For now, annexation and the Trump plan have shot to the top of the Israeli election campaign. Gideon Saar, a member of Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 Likud party, called on the prime minister to take advantage of the Trump declaration and 鈥渟peedily鈥� annex the settlements.
Surveys by Israel鈥檚 Channel 12 and 13 showed about half of the public in support.
Israeli peace activists warn it would create an apartheid reality and destroy any prospects for an agreement. They argue that while the Trump plan鈥檚 aspiration for peace, a two-state solution, and territorial swaps are laudable, the road map for implementation is disturbing.
鈥淚t has nothing to do with a two-state solution,鈥� says Yariv Oppenheimer, the former director of Peace Now, at a demonstration against the agreement Saturday. 鈥淚ts purpose is to continue the occupation and make it permanent.鈥�
