Why Trump鈥檚 withdrawal from Syria has Israel on edge
| TEL AVIV
鈥淎merica First鈥� is not exactly a subtle slogan, and Israeli officials were well aware of President Donald Trump鈥檚 isolationist streak.
But for decades Israel鈥檚 foreign policy has rested almost exclusively on the presumption of ironclad ties with the United States. And under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose personal political fortunes also are intertwined with the strength of those ties, that has meant his trusting relationship with Mr. Trump.
The U.S. president鈥檚 hasty decision to withdraw American troops from northern Syria has consequently left Israel reeling from the implications 鈥� all of which could put it in increased danger.
Why We Wrote This
President Donald Trump has billed himself as a staunch friend of Israel, but the Syrian withdrawal has refocused Israelis on their primary desire 鈥� for the U.S. to remain active in the region.
Underlying it all is the fear and even, as some analysts suggest, a whiff of panic: Could a staunch U.S. ally like Israel one day also be abandoned at a crucial moment like Syria鈥檚 Kurds, America鈥檚 best weapon in the fight against the Islamic State?
In Jerusalem that means a scramble to rethink and prepare for what might unfold next in the Middle East now that America鈥檚 decades-long forceful presence in the region is waning.
This is the fast-shifting Israeli mindset that awaits Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is expected to touch down in Israel Friday and meet Mr. Netanyahu to discuss regional security matters, chief among them Iran.
The challenge he faces is evident in two recent op-ed headlines in the mainstream, mass-circulation Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot: 鈥淭he Next Betrayal鈥� and 鈥淎 knife in our back.鈥�
In the same publication, Shimrit Meir, the founding editor of Al-Masdar, an Israeli news website in Arabic, writes, 鈥淚t is time for the most loyal Trump supporters in the region and beyond to come to terms with the fact the U.S. can no longer be relied on as it continues to spin out of control.鈥�
Enemies strengthened
In the past two years Israelis had grown accustomed to the image of President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu as partners in a very public lovefest, so the sting of a less engaged America feels especially sharp, despite the warning signs.
鈥淣etanyahu鈥檚 reliance on him, this was always going to be a problem. Trump gives Israel, gives Netanyahu, things to help him politically, and they are very symbolic, like Jerusalem and the Golan Heights,鈥� says Jonathan Rynhold, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University who researches American-Israeli relations.
But, he adds, Mr. Trump鈥檚 historic decisions to recognize Jerusalem as Israel鈥檚 capital and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan 鈥渄on鈥檛 really make a difference鈥�. America鈥檚 most important role for Israel is providing a balance of power that is favorable to Israel 鈥� and this move is a terrible message for Israel.鈥�
鈥淲e are not going to get massacred or removed from the country,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut it means the enemies of Israel and the enemies of moderate powers in the region will get stronger.鈥�
The list of potential consequences is indeed extensive, and in the case of the weakening of the Kurds, it has already been seen dramatically on the ground. Hundreds of Kurds have been killed in Turkish airstrikes, thousands more have fled, and in the wake of that chaos, unknown numbers of ISIS prisoners previously being guarded by the Kurds are now free again. Analysts say ISIS forces will now be able to rebuild and likely resume their terror campaign.
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Domino effect
The Kurds, desperate for protection, have now entered into a pact with the Syrian government, strengthening its hand as it tries to regain control of territory lost during the civil war. This is more bad news for Israel because Russia, Syria鈥檚 patron and notoriously fickle in its dealings with Israel, is left as the main superpower in the region.
Continuing the domino effect, Russia has long been turning a blind eye to Iran鈥檚 efforts to gain ground in Syria. With the U.S. increasingly out of the picture, there is little to deter Iran from establishing what has been called a 鈥渓and bridge鈥� to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria that would facilitate its movement of soldiers and missiles. The scenario is one of Israel鈥檚 long-standing fears.
鈥淚t is a horrid diplomatic disaster, the price of which could be Iranian forces on the Golan Heights and an 鈥楢xis of Evil鈥� closing on Israel from the north,鈥� Ofer Shelah, a lawmaker from the centrist Blue and White party told Israeli reporters. 鈥淎nd our only way of dealing with it would be by force.鈥�
Among the other potential 鈥渨inners鈥� in this still evolving new reality is Turkey鈥檚 President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a long-time thorn in Israel鈥檚 side who has supported Gaza鈥檚 militant Islamist rulers Hamas.
The suffering of the Kurds also feels unusually personal for Israel because of the two people鈥檚 history of tight political and reportedly even military relations. And Israelis see in the Kurds a version of themselves before they achieved statehood: a scrappy people fighting for independence.
A group of Israeli army reservists has been circulating an online petition imploring Israeli officials to help the Kurds during this crisis.
Iran鈥檚 precision missiles
The potential emboldening of Iran, Israel鈥檚 No. 1 enemy, is the most severe unintended consequence of Mr. Trump鈥檚 decision to withdraw troops from Syria.
Israel has long been warning that Iran would soon pose a nuclear threat that would be a danger not just to Israel but the region and the world. And for years it has been busy putting out fires 鈥� and fighting the occasional war 鈥� with Iranian allies Hezbollah in the north, on its border with Lebanon, and Hamas, in the south.
Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel and currently a senior fellow at Harvard鈥檚 Kennedy School of Government, says Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 policies 鈥渁re crashing down in all areas as they are all predicated on the assumption of having a strong friend in the White House and the U.S. not retrenching鈥� in the Middle East.
Once Iran makes headway on its 鈥渓and bridge鈥� plans, he says, the real challenge will be heading off the threat of the precision missiles it might be able to plant in closer proximity to Israel, missiles that would threaten Israeli energy installations and by extension, its economy. If Iran acquires more land as a de-facto 鈥渂ig base for missiles, it makes it really hard to find and destroy everything,鈥� he says.
Yoram Schweitzer, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former counter-terrorism adviser in the Prime Minister鈥檚 Office, says it鈥檚 important not to overly dramatize the new security challenges Israel faces, most of which he sees as evolving slowly.
鈥淣ot in any sense is Israel relying on American active defense of it, but the fact that the position of America has weakened vis-a-vis Iran, Israel鈥檚 main rival, impacts on Israel鈥檚 deterrent position,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e need to be sober about what we are facing and be on alert all the time.鈥�
Iran鈥檚 recent attacks on Saudi Arabian targets have meanwhile also raised concern among Israeli officials.
Haim Tomer, a former chief of intelligence and operations in the Mossad, echoed others鈥� comments when he wrote in Haaretz, 鈥淚n terms of deterrence, Iran鈥檚 operation in Saudi Arabia demonstrated its ability to strike accurately while obscuring its responsibility. That means it is capable of carrying out a similar operation against Israel.鈥澨�
Mr. Tomer also wrote that Mr. Trump鈥檚 current approach to the Middle East 鈥減resents a complex, almost unprecedented security dilemma for Israel right during the period of transition government.鈥�
No criticism from Netanyahu
Mr. Netanyahu ran his last two campaigns based in large part on his friendship with Mr. Trump 鈥� billboards of the two men smiling and shaking hands were plastered across the country 鈥� but has failed since the last election to form a governing coalition. He has not said anything directly critical of the U.S. president in the wake of the Syrian withdrawal.
Instead he reiterated Israel founding defense ethos: 鈥淚srael will protect itself, on its own, against any threat.鈥�
However Yuval Steinitz, a close ally of Mr. Netanyahu, told Ynet TV, 鈥淚 think the U.S. isolationist approach is problematic for the entire world, and for our region as well.鈥�
And looking forward, Yair Golan, a retired general and lawmaker with the left-wing Democratic Alliance party, says Israel will still need powerful allies and will need to shift course.
鈥淚srael will need a more nuanced, complex foreign policy,鈥� he says, one where coordination is sought across a wider range of sources, from increased cooperation with moderate Sunni countries, to Russia, and more locally with Greece and Cyprus. 鈥淭here may be more disappointments taking this road, but we don鈥檛 determine U.S. policy, and Israel has to deal with a new reality.鈥�
