Vote-buying in Turkey? Price is high, satisfaction not guaranteed.
| Istanbul
At the end of April, and despite Turkey鈥檚 economic malaise, President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an鈥檚 ruling Justice and Development Party authorized new twice-yearly payouts of 1,000 liras, about $225, to retirees.
The payouts are part of a social benefits package worth more than $5.5 billion, widely regarded in Turkey as a transparent election ploy by the AKP ahead of a hotly contested June 24 vote.
But not everyone is impressed.
Why We Wrote This
A $5.5 billion social benefits package that likely will stress Turkey's economy is being interpreted as a sign that President Erdo臒an and his party could be in trouble in upcoming elections.
Mehmet, a pensioner with gray hair and a goatee, says he鈥檚 happy to receive the retiree bonus, but adds the 鈥渆lection bribe鈥� will not erode his support for the opposition.
鈥淭he government is nervous, afraid it might lose,鈥� says Mehmet, who asked that a pseudonym be used amid tensions in Turkey鈥檚 polarized society.
The bonus 鈥渋s good and it definitely helps, but it鈥檚 not going to change where Turkey is heading, its future,鈥� he says, speaking above the cacophony of tweeting parakeets inside his wife鈥檚 Istanbul pet shop. 鈥淚n this day and age, who doesn鈥檛 want free money? It won鈥檛 change my vote.鈥�
For some analysts, the irony is not lost that the government largess is meant to affect an election held 18 months early to protect Mr. Erdo臒an and the AKP from the anticipated political fallout from a declining economy in the presidential and parliamentary vote. The move signifies a degree of panic, they say, and appears to be a calculation that the price of victory is worth聽digging the country even further into a fiscal hole.
Analysts expect Turks will eventually pay dearly for the injection of so much new cash into the struggling economy. In April and May alone, the Turkish lira fell 24 percent against the dollar.
'Growing signs of panic'
But another question is whether the handouts can even gain the AKP traction. The party has ruled Turkey relatively unchallenged since 2002, but polls show that a united opposition might disrupt the AKP鈥檚 majority in parliament, and that Erdo臒an may be forced into a surprise second-round runoff.
鈥淚t鈥檚 economic populism on steroids, and it indicates Erdo臒an and the AKP are exhibiting growing signs of panic,鈥� says Fadi Hakura, head of the Turkey Project at Chatham House in London.
The president and AKP emphasize achieving high growth rates 鈥撀爏uch as 7.4 percent GDP growth last year 鈥� while ignoring that Turkey鈥檚 economy can鈥檛 sustain such growth, he says.
鈥淚f that means pumping five-plus billion dollars into an overheated economy, then so be it,鈥� says Mr. Hakura.
鈥淓rdo臒an wants Ferrari growth rates with resources equivalent to a mid-size Audi,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t temporarily can reach Ferrari speeds, by spiking the gas and playing around with the engine, but ultimately the car will overheat and break down, and that鈥檚 something Erdo臒an and the ruling party does not seem to appreciate or understand.鈥�
Pro-government media praised the AKP鈥檚 鈥渆lection package鈥� as 鈥済ood news for 81 million鈥� 鈥撀爀very person in the country. But one antigovernment newspaper noted that the AKP after 16 years of rule had 鈥渘ot abolished poverty,鈥� and yet announced the spending surge ahead of elections. Another declared: 鈥淔avors for the bosses; bribes to the public.鈥�
The International Monetary Fund warned on April 30 鈥� the day the AKP rolled out its pre-election benefits plan 鈥� that Turkey鈥檚 economy is 鈥渟howing clear signs of overheating,鈥� and that monetary policy 鈥渁ppears too loose.鈥�
Yet Prime Minister Binali Y谋ld谋r谋m promised that same day to find the cash by a host of measures, from re-zoning 13 million buildings to aspirations of an increase in tourism this summer.
鈥淲e have no issue with the funding of this package,鈥� he stated.
For AKP, welfare a key tool
Opposition parties have also made big, unaffordable promises, with the main opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP), for example, suggesting that bonuses for pensions be raised 60 percent on top of the AKP payment, to make it level with a monthly minimum wage.
But even though only the AKP is in a position to deliver tangible cash benefits before the vote, the impact is not clear.
鈥淚t will be effective among a certain group, like the bottom of the social-economic ladder,鈥� says Mehmet in the pet supply shop.
Mehmet doesn鈥檛 count himself among the needy. But his family, which in the past ate red meat once a week, can now only afford to do so once a month. Prices keep rising, but not salaries 鈥� a fact that forced him from his profession four years ago.
The welfare state has expanded quickly throughout the AKP era. Family Minister Fatma Bet眉l Sayan Kaya said the AKP had created a 鈥渟ilent revolution,鈥� with social assistance expanding 23-fold, from 1.4 billion liras in 2002 to 39 billion liras in 2017.
The new AKP election package weighs in at a further 24 billion liras.
鈥淓ver since the AKP came to power in 2002, welfare assistance has been the strongest card of the government, enabling it to connect with various sectors of society from children, students and the elderly to the handicapped and the jobless,鈥� the online news site Al-Monitor wrote in an analysis. 鈥淩ecipients of such aid have become an important element in the AKP鈥檚 electoral force.鈥�
That is no surprise to Mahmut Karaman, a real estate agent and AKP supporter on the Asian side of Istanbul.
鈥淭here have definitely been more [pre-election] promises than before, and some 鈥撀爈ike the pensioner payouts 鈥� should have been done before. They waited to the last minute,鈥� says Mr. Karaman, adding that customers have far less money and less motivation to buy or rent these days, amid the economic uncertainty.
Chatham House鈥檚 Hakura, who predicts Turkey will face a 鈥渕ajor economic crisis鈥� within five years if it does not re-tool the economy, says Turks 鈥渁re attuned to populist economics pursued by various political parties at election time.鈥�
鈥淭he $5 billion package announced by the government 鈥� may solidify its voter base,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut I don鈥檛 think [it] will be able to attract wavering voters that are now moving to the opposition camp.鈥�
Still, many believe in Erdo臒an
But there are many AKP true believers, despite the current downturn.
鈥淚鈥檓 one of the people who suffered most. All our business is in dollars, but I am not at all disturbed,鈥� says Osman 艦ahin, who runs his family鈥檚 coffee company and remembers when, as a boy nearly 20 years ago, Erdo臒an patted his head while his father sacrificed a sheep for Erdo臒an, who was then-mayor of Istanbul.
Mr. 艦ahin says the cost of raw materials has doubled, forcing him to raise prices. He employs 150 people.
鈥淲e truly believe in Erdo臒an,鈥� he says. 鈥淗e鈥檚 really a person who has done some good.鈥�
