Turkey elections: why Erdo臒an and his party are suddenly vulnerable
| ISTANBUL
Caner G眉ne艧, with short black beard, nationalistic tattoos, and blue jeans, is a member of the youth wing of Turkey鈥檚 main opposition party.
He helps staff a Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP)聽tent blasting music and political speeches at a ferry terminal in Kadik枚y, on the Asian side of Istanbul.
鈥淭he atmosphere now has really changed,鈥� says Mr. G眉ne艧. 鈥淚n one neighborhood, when we went out there they used to throw stones at us,鈥� he says. 鈥淣ow they shake our hands and say, 鈥榊ou have our vote.鈥� 鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Perhaps it's inevitable that even the most popular strongman loses his appeal. President Erdo臒an chose early elections, but Turks are starting to signal they've had enough of one-man rule.
Not every district in Turkey has seen such a dramatic change of heart. In the neighborhood in question, G眉ne艧 attributes the shift to the clumsy handling of residents whose homes were razed to make way for a top-dollar building project run by a company linked to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
But day after day, Turkey鈥檚 opposition parties brave a scalding heatwave to hand out leaflets, energized like never before by a belief that President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an and the AKP 鈥撀燼fter half a generation in power 鈥� may be vulnerable in June 24 presidential and parliamentary elections.
To be sure, Mr. Erdo臒an remains the most popular politician in Turkey, burnished by wall-to-wall television coverage of his every utterance 鈥撀爐he result of the AKP鈥檚 successful, systematic effort to control Turkey鈥檚 key media organs 鈥撀燼nd a campaign that has used state resources to blanket the country with his image and the words 鈥渟trong leader.鈥�
But Erdo臒an鈥檚 us-versus-them style has polarized Turkey, and his dream of ushering in a new presidential system with supreme powers may be in jeopardy as opposition parties have put up stronger-than-expected candidates, unified for the first time, and smell blood.
The transformation to the all-powerful new presidential system, approved in a narrowly won referendum last year, is to begin with this vote.
Erdo臒an called this snap election 18 months early, expecting yet another victory by out-running an opposition resurgence and economic downturn. Instead, the currency has dropped nearly 20 percent in recent months with more trouble to come, prices have continued to soar, and more and more Turks are showing signs of Erdo臒an fatigue.
鈥淔or the first time in almost 16 years of AKP rule, people are able to imagine a situation in which he wouldn鈥檛 be the ultimate winner,鈥� says Asl谋 Ayd谋nta艧ba艧, a Turkey analyst with the European Council on Foreign Relations. 鈥淭his is a natural course of events. There is no single person anywhere in the world who's in power for 16 years, and would not start going down in popularity.
鈥淗e may still end up winning, but the truth is, inside Turkey he no longer looks invincible 鈥� quite the opposite,鈥� says Ms. Ayd谋nta艧ba艧, noting that Erdo臒an has had to make new alliances, distribute large government handouts, and jack up AKP mobilization to score a 51 percent win in the presidential vote that would avoid a second-round runoff.
鈥淓rdo臒an has spent so much time creating a one-man regime, but in a one-man regime all the problems you have in your life 鈥� whether it鈥檚 the economy or politics 鈥撀爕ou end up blaming on that one man,鈥� says Ayd谋nta艧ba艧.
鈥淗e鈥檚 still the most popular guy on the street, but it is also a very divided country,鈥� she says. 鈥淭he anti-Erdo臒an camp is now almost half the population, so it鈥檚 quite a challenge to continue to win elections, if you have a very determined 50 percent of the population who doesn鈥檛 like you.鈥�
Unity in opposition
To maximize their chances, four of Turkey鈥檚 fractious opposition parties have joined in an unprecedented show of unity for the parliamentary vote. They have not held back in their criticism 鈥撀燼nd neither has the president, in return 鈥撀燼s their leaders crisscross Turkey, speaking to multiple rallies each day.
CHP candidate Muharrem 陌nce, a former physics teacher who has vowed to restore democracy and the rule of law, told crowds last week that Erdo臒an was 鈥渢oo tired鈥� to solve Turkey鈥檚 鈥渂ig problems.鈥�
Addressing聽Erdo臒an, he said he聽would collapse the 1,000-room presidential palace he had built in the capital, Ankara, 鈥渙n your head.鈥� He vowed to reverse the president鈥檚 鈥渞epressive鈥� culture and promised that his face would not appear 鈥� as Erdogan鈥檚 often does 鈥� every time a Turk turned on the television.
鈥淲e will change the man who has been shouting at us for 16 years,鈥� Mr. 陌nce told another rally.
Yet the campaign trail is the natural place for Erdo臒an鈥檚 charismatic and combative style.
Erdo臒an聽accuses聽陌nce of 鈥渟upporting terrorism鈥� by meeting with a Kurdish presidential candidate, Selahattin Demirta艧 of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), who is currently in prison; of聽鈥渕anipulating the electorate鈥�; and of wanting to聽鈥渞eturn to the old Turkey鈥� by destroying what the AKP has built.
鈥淵ou will never even have the opportunity to even come to the palace,鈥� he told聽陌nce at a rally as crowds cheered.
A mixed record
Since 2002, the Islam-rooted AKP has transformed and modernized Turkey鈥檚 economy, raising the standard of living across the board even as top figures 鈥撀燼nd construction barons linked to the party 鈥撀爂ained vast wealth.
But Erdo臒an鈥檚 definition of democracy is rule by the majority only, without reaching out to other parties, and his authoritarian style prompted widespread protests in 2013, which vilified him as a 鈥渄ictator.鈥�
A crackdown on opponents that Erdo臒an routinely castigates as 鈥渢errorists鈥� was stepped up in 2013, then intensified after a failed coup in July 2016. Scores of journalists remain in jail 鈥撀燭urkey ranked highest in the world for jailed journalists in 2017, for the second year in a row 鈥撀燼nd 150,000 people have been purged from state institutions.
Every opposition leader has said they will immediately end the state of emergency, begun after the coup attempt and meant to last just three months. Erdo臒an finally followed their lead, making the same promise on Wednesday.
鈥淩ecep Tayyip Erdo臒an is human, we all make mistakes, but no one has done as much for the country,鈥� says Yakup Varol, an aircraft technician and volunteer at the AKP tent at the ferry terminal, as he rolls up a string of orange and blue flag bunting at the end of the day.
鈥淚n every system, one person has the final say. This is no different,鈥� says Mr. Varol. 鈥淭his election the opposition is very aggressive. Now Turkey is a very beautiful country, but if the opposition wins it will all go.鈥�
But that election outcome is impossible, say AKP officials at a mobile party kiosk in 脺sk眉dar district, where they hand out red carnations and party balloons. Most volunteers are women wearing headscarves.
鈥淗is chance of losing is zero,鈥� says 陌brahim Y眉r眉r, head of a local AKP neighborhood association. 鈥淚n every election we increased the level of support and number of votes, and the new presidential system will be 鈥� God willing 鈥撀爋ur crowning achievement,鈥� he says of Erdo臒an鈥檚 long-held dream, which would begin聽with a new five-year term.
'No good slogans'
But not all ruling party operatives are convinced by their own propaganda.
鈥淧eople are not enthusiastic this time 鈥� neither us nor our voters,鈥� one AKP official told the Financial Times. 鈥淲e are just saying the same things as before: we built a new bridge, we are building a new airport. There are no good slogans, no good songs.鈥�
Instead, Erdo臒an has inadvertently provided the opposition with useful slogans. When he said at a rally that he would go when the Turkish people said 鈥渆nough,鈥� the Turkish word 鈥渢amam鈥� went viral and became part of the opposition lexicon.
Turkey faces a host of problems. Erdo臒an has lambasted some European leaders as Nazis, exacerbated a collapse in Turkey鈥檚 relations with the US and with NATO, and been deeply involved in the Syrian war, which has brought more than 3.5 million refugees into the country.
Turkey this week launched attacks against the headquarters of the militant Kurdistan Workers鈥� Party (PKK) in northern Iraq 鈥撀爄n a popular move dismissed as an election ploy by critics 鈥撀燼nd has engaged in multiple cross-border military operations in Syria.
鈥淲e are out here going to markets and bazaars, meeting 1,500 to 2,000 people a day. From their facial expressions and body language they are telling us they are tired,鈥� says H眉seyin Yal莽inta艧, a flooring shop owner manning a tent for the nationalist 陌yi (Good) party, whose leader Meral Ak艧ener is a veteran female politician.
鈥淭hen they actually say to us, 鈥榊ou鈥檝e got to save us from these people. They are taking us away from democracy to a one-man regime,鈥欌�� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a groundswell of people who are victims of the government, and we are the voice of these people.鈥�
Unity in a box (of chocolate)
And that voice is magnified by unprecedented opposition unity.
鈥淲e haven鈥檛 wanted him from the beginning, but in 16 years Erdo臒an has even worn out his supporters,鈥� asserts H眉lya Memo臒lu, a local CHP activist at the ferry terminal tent.
鈥淗e鈥檚 never had all of Turkey, but he鈥檚 taken his half of it and kept pushing,鈥� adds Y谋ld谋z Dikin, a leader of the CHP women鈥檚 wing in Kadik枚y, nodding in agreement.
A box of chocolates arrives at the CHP tent as a gift from the HDP kiosk nearby, and begins to melt in the heat, even as it is offered around.
鈥淭his is HDP chocolate, this is unity!鈥� says Ms. Dikin, clearly impressed. 鈥淎ltogether we are going to take these [AKP] people down.鈥�
