Year after coup, Turkey's opposition on the march. But to where?
| Istanbul
The crowd stretched for as far as the eye could see: the biggest flag-waving Turkish opposition rally in many years.
They were Turks angry at the authoritarian rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an; Turks joyful that their call for 鈥渏ustice鈥� may be heard; Turks hopeful that the promises of opposition unity may be real.
The mass rally on July 9 marked the culmination of a 25-day, 280-mile opposition march from the capital, Ankara, to Istanbul that attracted tens of thousands of citizens. They flocked to the opposition鈥檚 banners despite being pilloried as akin to 鈥渢errorists鈥� and dangerous provocateurs by Mr. Erdo臒an and the Islamist ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Yet, as emotional as the mass event was, it is still far from clear whether the political spectacle will inspire a credible resurgence of Turkey鈥檚 fractured opposition.
This weekend marks the anniversary of last summer鈥檚 failed coup, which Erdo臒an鈥檚 critics say he has exploited to fortify his own power and crack down on a range of political opponents. Speaking Thursday, the president highlighted the聽鈥渆pic dimension鈥� of聽the coup attempt, saying Turkey learned in those dramatic hours 鈥渢hat we will either die or exist,鈥� and declaring:聽鈥淲e are leaving a very important legacy to future generations."
The anniversary is also a poignant reminder that the opposition has been on a long losing streak, including, most recently and significantly, its failure this spring to block Erdo臒an from narrowly winning a referendum granting him expanded, near-unassailable presidential powers.
鈥淲hile [the rally] is undoubtedly a huge act of courage and defiance, I want to caution against seeing this as a major game changer,鈥� says Asl谋 Ayd谋nta艧ba艧, a senior fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in Istanbul.
鈥淭he 50 percent is united on anti-Erdo臒an sentiment, and united in their opposition to authoritarianism, but not in a common vision for Turkey,鈥� says Ms. Ayd谋nta艧ba艧. The opposition task 鈥渋s to use the hope and energy鈥� created by the march and rally to lay out a plan to unify disparate factions.
Notably missing, she says, is a charismatic figure who can unite the opposition.
鈥淭urkey needs a Turkish Macron, and it鈥檚 not out there yet,鈥� says Ayd谋nta艧ba艧, referring to French President Emmanuel Macron, who despite being a political unknown a year ago, recently upset a crowded field of seasoned candidates. 鈥淭his was a good step, but I haven鈥檛 got the feeling there is a day-after scenario yet.鈥�
Anniversary of coup
The opposition show of strength comes as Erdo臒an and the AKP are preparing elaborate ceremonies to mark the July 15 anniversary of the attempted coup as a day when 246 Turkish 鈥渕artyrs鈥� died, they say, 鈥渄efending democracy.鈥�
But that event also yielded a continuing state of emergency, a fierce crackdown on civil society, the arrests of 50,000 people, a purge of 140,000 teachers, soldiers, police, judges, and others, and a tighter grip by Erdo臒an 鈥撀燼ll reasons such a broad spectrum of Turks took to the streets for the opposition march and rally.
The march was led by Kemal K谋l谋莽daro臒lu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP), in the first sign of opposition life since the April referendum.
鈥淭he final day of the 鈥榡ustice march鈥� is a new beginning and a new step,鈥� Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu boomed from the stage at the sea of supporters, who chanted 鈥淩ights, law, justice!鈥�
鈥淚t鈥檚 not the end of a march鈥�. It鈥檚 a new climate, a new history, a new birth,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e marched because we are against a one-man regime [and] because we are against terrorist organizations and because of the fact that the judiciary has been taken under the orders of politics.鈥�
鈥淓rdo臒an is a dictator!鈥� said one rally-goer amid the crowd, sweating under the hot summer sun, a white headband with the Turkish word for justice, adalet, across his forehead. Others were far less charitable about the man who has ruled Turkey with an increasingly tight grip since 2002.
Obstacles to opposition unity
But analysts say despite the unexpectedly popular stratagem of the march,聽there are immense obstacles to converting that rejuvenated energy into unity between the CHP, nationalists, and the pro-Kurdish Peoples鈥� Democratic Party (HDP). In an election two years ago,聽in a rare electoral setback for Erdo臒an, the HDP exceeded for the first time the 10 percent threshold for representation in parliament. The party has been under especially sustained attack, with arrests of its leaders and lawmakers on terrorism charges, since fighting between the Turkish state and Kurdish militants reignited in southeast Turkey in July 2015.
The HDP called on its supporters to join the rally for 鈥渟ocial justice,鈥� to 鈥渂e in the field with all our power, to deepen the crack in the fascist-chauvinist bloc.鈥�
Critics charge that Erdo臒an and the AKP have used the coup, and the tools of the state of emergency, to consolidate their own power by jailing opponents and journalists and restricting opposition parties.
K谋l谋莽daro臒lu derides the state of emergency as a second 鈥� successful 鈥� coup against the Turkish people.
Criticizing the march this week, Erdo臒an invoked Muslim piety: 鈥淭hey could walk 450 kilometers for the terrorists, but could not take 4-1/2 minutes to read a fatiha [Quranic prayer] for the [July 15] martyrs?鈥�
Erdo臒an noted the demand of marchers to end the state of emergency, which has been extended repeatedly: 鈥淭his job will end when it鈥檚 completely over,鈥� he said.
Doubts about opposition
The scale of the march 鈥渨as a key moment, but I think that one should be very realistic regarding what the opposition is capable of achieving in Turkey, because contrary to all the rhetoric, there is no opposition front in Turkey 鈥撀爄t doesn鈥檛 exist,鈥� says Cengiz Aktar, a senior scholar with the Istanbul Policy Center at Sabanci University.
鈥淲ill the opposition manage to gather its forces, especially including the Kurds? I have very serious doubts,鈥� says Mr. Aktar. CHP voters 鈥渁re historically anti-Kurdish, and it will take them another decade probably to understand that without due attention paid to the Kurdish issue there won鈥檛 be a political alternative to Mr. Erdo臒an and the AKP.鈥�
In a bid to broaden the appeal of the march and rally, CHP leaders ordered that only non-party banners be flown, include the national flag, the 鈥渏ustice鈥� motto of the event, and portraits depicting the secular founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atat眉rk.
鈥淢aybe the best outcome of this 鈥榡ustice鈥� march was that people, after one year, are today more concerned about the consequences of the so-called coup, rather than the coup itself,鈥� says Aktar. 鈥淧eople realize more and more it was a big, big game and the entire country is paying the price.鈥�
'Not the same Turkey'
The CHP joined the AKP after the coup attempt in a sign of national unity, and supported national solidarity rallies that lasted across the country for a month. But the march began mid-June, the day after one senior CHP official was sentenced to 25 years in prison for leaking information to the media about the Turkish state providing weapons to Islamists fighting in Syria.
The fact it was led day after day in sweltering temperatures by the 68-year-old CHP chief, accused in the past of uninspired and ineffective leadership, 鈥渟howed that nothing is impossible,鈥� wrote columnist Semih 陌diz in the H眉rriyet Daily News.
鈥淣o one is expecting an overnight miracle to emerge from this march, [but] we are not the same Turkey as we were before it took place,鈥� wrote Mr. 陌diz. 鈥淓rdo臒an and the AKP are no doubt sleeping a little less comfortably now, with presidential and parliamentary elections not so far away in 2019.鈥�
Fractures in the opposition aside, the intense official reaction may meanwhile have as much to do with dissent within AKP鈥檚 own ranks, says Ayd谋nta艧ba艧 from ECFR.
鈥淭his is what the AKP leadership fears the most, not so much what happens with the opposition, but what happens with their own constituents, the internal grumbling, the quiet resentment about what AKP has come to symbolize,鈥� she says.
鈥淭his may not come out publicly, but in quiet corners of AKP, people are complaining, saying, 鈥楾his is not what we set out for 14 years ago. We are jeopardizing our gains by becoming too authoritarian,鈥� 鈥� Ayd谋nta艧ba艧 says.
