海角大神

President Trump's reported suspension of a covert CIA program to fund, arm, and train Syrian rebels is seen as signaling the end of US efforts to pressure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the battlefield.

But the cutting of US ties 鈥� and likely those of US allies who also provided the rebels material support 鈥� also calls into question the fate of thousands of armed fighters who have grown reliant on US support and direction.

The move, which some commentators have characterized as appeasing Russia, Mr. Assad鈥檚 most powerful backer, has left thousands of mainstream rebels struggling to navigate a battlefield suddenly tipped against them, without a patron, without guidance 鈥� and for some 鈥� without a cause.

Among the options for the rebels, looking to evolve to survive: join the US-led battle against the so-called Islamic State, or, for the fervently anti-Assad fighters, even join the ranks of jihadist and Islamist groups, which have retained their shadowy funding and supply lines.

Abu Mohammed al Darrawi, the聽nom de guerre聽of a Free Syrian Army (FSA) intelligence official who has spent the past four years shuttling between southern Syria and Jordan to negotiate for arms and support, says many 鈥渆motional鈥� fighters and commanders will begin considering outreach by Al Qaeda and other well-funded Islamist militias.

鈥淲e lost our brothers, our sisters, our children; we went through hell just to end this regime and see an end to Assad,鈥� Darrawi said.

鈥淚f Al Qaeda, if Ahrar al Sham, if the devil himself is fighting Assad and will help us in this fight, we will side with them.鈥�

Timber Sycamore

When the CIA launched the covert training and arming program, known as Timber Sycamore, in early 2013, it was designed to pressure Assad on the battlefield while regulating the flow of arms and cash that had already been pouring聽in聽from Gulf countries and from Turkey.

The CIA, along with聽the US聽allies, vetted and trained thousands of rebels from the聽FSA聽and affiliated militias聽at聽bases within Turkey to the north and聽Jordan to the south.

Every operation, every battlefield movement, was micromanaged from Military Operations Centers (MOCs), in Jordan and Turkey that featured US, French, British, Saudi, and Emirati intelligence and military officials.

The US and its allies provided聽the rebels with聽light arms, including heavy machine guns, mortars, sniper rifles, and vehicles.聽But, due to Washington鈥檚 concerns, they did not provide聽them聽with the anti-aircraft聽weapons聽they needed to counter regime airstrikes and turn the tide on the battlefield.

The聽Trump administration鈥檚聽suspension of Timber Sycamore followed months of scaling down the program and聽was聽seen by many as an inevitable divorce. Mr. Trump referred聽this week on Twitter to his 鈥渆nding massive, dangerous, and wasteful payments鈥� to the rebels.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, staunch supporters of聽the聽rebels, will be unable or unwilling to go against聽their ally聽Washington and continue arming or financing the聽fighters,聽say Arab security sources close to the MOC in Amman.

Jordan will no longer offer a land corridor to provide weapons to the south, Turkey is pressuring moderate rebels in the north to fight a proxy war with Kurdish groups, while Qatar, a major backer of Islamist rebels, will also be unwilling to throw its support behind the FSA.

The mood in the northern Jordanian town of Irbid, 12聽miles from聽the聽Syrian border, where commanders of the FSA鈥檚 Southern Front have lived and operated, is one of weariness as they consider their options.

鈥淲e have 54 factions in the south alone without support, without arms, and without salaries,鈥� says Abdul Hadi Sari, a former Syrian air force general聽who has聽been聽an adviser to FSA鈥檚 Southern Front and a military analyst based in Jordan.

鈥淲hen the US says stop, they all stop.鈥�

Fighting against, with jihadists

According to rebel commanders close to the MOC in Amman, rebels have been negotiating with聽Saudi Arabia and the UAE to continue salaries to fighters in order to prevent聽them聽from breaking ranks and joining jihadist groups.聽There have been聽50 reported defections already this month.

The end of the CIA program meanwhile聽may also boost efforts to build a fighting force to oust ISIS from Syria,聽analysts and rebels say, the only way mainstream rebels can secure US support or that of its allies.

According to Syrian rebel commanders close to operations, the US has been redirecting vetted rebels to bases established聽near聽Tanf in the triangle between south-eastern Syria, western Iraq, and northern Jordan to train and take up the fight against ISIS in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour.

鈥淭he CIA program was aimed at Assad, while the Department of Defense鈥檚 program was aimed at ISIS,鈥澛燜aysal Itani, a Syria expert and senior fellow at the Rafiq Hairiri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council,聽says聽via email.

鈥淓nding the former will, if anything, pressure fighters to join the latter in order to get paid and receive US protection.鈥�

As the CIA program was winding down over the past three months, 200 vetted Syrian rebels traveled to Tanf to join the US-formed Jaysh Maghawir al-Thawra聽(Revolutionary Commandos Army)聽for training, according to Syrian rebel commanders. Hundreds more are said to be considering the offer,聽but travel from southwest and northwest Syria to the southeast is a dangerous proposition given that swathes of territory are held by聽pro-regime聽Shiite militias聽or ISIS.

鈥淓ntering at-Tanf for many would be a suicide mission,鈥� says Mr. Sari,聽the former air force general.聽鈥淏ut if you are starving and worn down by four years of war, many may take that risk.鈥�

Police force?

One聽proposal allegedly backed by both Russia and the US, which came as part of Russia-US-Jordan tripartite talks in Amman that reached a cease-fire in south Syria, is the transformation of the Free Syrian Army and moderate rebels from a militia to a 鈥減olice force.鈥�

Under the proposal,聽which according to those close to the ongoing tripartite talks聽has gained the support of Jordan, the rebels would change their mission from overthrowing Assad to keeping the peace in recently-announced聽truce zones聽in southern Syria and east of Damascus.

As part of the switch, as envisioned by the West, rebels would receive police training within southern Syria and salaries to both police and prevent extremist groups from filling the vacuum. Should it prove successful, the model would be replicated in central and northern Syria, with the presence of a non-regime police force facilitating the return of Syrian refugees from Jordan聽and聽Turkey, according to those close to the talks.

Syrian rebel commanders are divided on the initiative; some say they would rather fight to the 鈥渓ast bullet鈥� than abandon their cause.

鈥淢any would rather die as martyrs than live as policemen,鈥� says Abu Kamal, the nom de guerre of a FSA rebel commander in the Damascus countryside,聽whose fighters came to a standstill due to funding cuts last month, ahead of the Trump decision.

But, while聽the mission would be a聽far cry from overthrowing a regime that has committed atrocities,聽rebels say many聽fighters, worn down from broken promises and an increasingly sectarian fight, may be ready to accept the offer.

鈥淲hen we went out and protested for freedom, we did not know that we would be facing jihadists, the world鈥檚 Shiite militias, Russia, a civil war, and a sectarian war,鈥澛燬ari聽says.

鈥淩ight now, if you offer us security and peace on our homeland, many will take it.鈥�