海角大神

It鈥檚 a familiar political story: The presidential hopeful billed as the candidate of 鈥減rudence and hope鈥� is facing withering criticism. His toughest opponents fear their longstanding grip on key power centers is waning irrevocably. They attack him harshly for failing to deliver on the economy and foreign policy 鈥� all in a bid to make him that most embarrassing of phenomena: a one-term president.聽

Iran鈥檚 election may not be for another eight months, but hard-line opponents of President Hassan Rouhani have already marshaled powerful tools to unseat him. They鈥檙e banking on a convergence of two key factors: public dismay over unrealized hopes for economic progress after the landmark nuclear deal, and their own desire for unity to ensure聽that a man they see as dangerously opening up Iran to the US and the West聽won鈥檛 remain in office.聽

But how far can Rouhani鈥檚 conservative rivals go to defeat him, using cash and hard-line media to amplify their already loud voices; and how big a challenge do they really pose?聽

Supporters argue that they will prevail: Rouhani has withstood excruciating pressure from his opponents, and faces no obvious contenders. They also point to the fact that conservative factions 鈥� often called 鈥減rinciplists鈥� 鈥� have been defeated twice since 2013 at the polls聽by voters eager for greater social freedoms.

Yet his challengers聽see last year's nuclear deal, which dismantled part of Iran鈥檚 nuclear infrastructure, as capitulation to the United States. It's also viewed as an opening to interference in Iran鈥檚 affairs, including the deep-rooted business interests that are controlled by Iran鈥檚 Revolutionary Guard.

The fact that some US sanctions remain 鈥� and that banking restrictions still complicate transactions with Iran 鈥� means that many blame Rouhani for lack of economic progress. The approval Monday by the US Treasury Department of the sale of an initial 17 Airbus planes,聽with sales from Boeing expected to be approved in coming days,聽will be a boon. 聽

For the president鈥檚 detractors and supporters alike, the stakes could not be higher for the 2017 vote.

鈥淭he 'principlists' will do everything to defeat Rouhani, so he loses the next election,鈥� says Mojtaba Mousavi, founder of the conservative IransView.com website. 鈥淚n the next 10 years the country will change very much. The leadership are old men, some may pass away, and no one knows what may happen. So it is very important for both sides, because this election will change the environment for the next decade.鈥�

Rowdy crowd

Conservatives鈥� traction with some constituencies was on full display mid-summer, when Rouhani grew frustrated as he tried to address a crowd over the voices of protesters in Kermanshah, in northwest Iran. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 listen to me and just keep repeating your slogans,鈥� Rouhani scolded his audience, with an impatient wave of his hand amid a chorus of complaints about the economy.

Problems 鈥渃annot be done away with slogans, cannot be resolved with poems,鈥� he said, calling on Iranians to 鈥渏oin hand in hand鈥� to execute solutions.

Still, despite the array of tools at their disposal, Iran鈥檚 principlists face their own limits. The nuclear deal of July 2015, for example, was struck with the tacit support of Iran鈥檚 supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

And as a consummate insider since the first days of Iran鈥檚 1979 Islamic revolution, Rouhani enjoys far closer ties and level of trust with Mr. Khamenei than Iran鈥檚 two previous presidents.

鈥淭he common word for [principlists] is 鈥榚ngineering.鈥� They want to engineer anything and everything,鈥� says an Iranian analyst who asked not to be named. 鈥淭hey know too well they are in the minority and want to punch above their weight 鈥撀燼nd they are doing that.鈥�

鈥淭hey have been detonating [political] bombs and would love to end Mr. Rouhani鈥檚 career at the first term,鈥� he says,聽noting a string of recent issues used to attack Rouhani, from the damaging release of pay slips of officials receiving vast salaries to complaints that joining the intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force to combat money-laundering聽amounts to buckling under the demands of arch-foe America.

The top attack line for Rouhani opponents is against overselling the positive impact of the nuclear deal 鈥撀燼 tactic of raising hopes during two years of intensive negotiations that aimed to keep hard-line critics at bay inside Iran.聽

鈥淎lmost none of these promises were fulfilled. Now even many former supporters of Rouhani are critical of him,鈥� says Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hard-line Kayhan newspaper, who is an official representative of Khamenei.

The negotiators 鈥渁ll admit the sanctions were only lifted on paper,鈥� yielding 鈥渕assive discontent,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he way the Americans are treating the Rouhani government is like waterboarding, the torture at Guantanamo.鈥�

Rouhani has also been unable to always count on the supreme leader Khamenei鈥檚 support, despite his tacit backing of the nuclear deal.

Rouhani stated in July, for example, that the nuclear deal helped prevent an attack on Iran 鈥� something with which US Secretary of State John Kerry concurred. But Khamenei, in clear riposte to Rouhani, earlier this week dismissed any link to the nuclear deal. The 鈥渙nly鈥� factor in removing the risk of war, he said, 鈥渉as been and will continue to be military and defensive power.鈥�

The popular view

Popular preferences are obvious, to some. Iranians took to the streets to celebrate Rouhani鈥檚 victory over a slate of conservative candidates in June 2013, and then when the nuclear deal was signed last year. In parliament elections in February, despite heavy vetting of reformist candidates and Rouhani allies, conservatives suffered a blow.

That vote 鈥渜uite clearly showed the political taste of society,鈥� say Davood Mohammadi, editor of the pro-Rouhani Iran newspaper. 鈥淧eople still preferred to vote for unknown candidates instead of known hardliners. Not one conservative won a seat in Tehran.鈥�

鈥淟ack of contentment in people does not mean people are anti-Rouhani,鈥� says Mr. Mohammadi. 鈥淲hile hardliners are going the extra mile to highlight the failures, most people know they are the legacy of Mr. Ahmadinejad.鈥澛�

Yet opponents of Rouhani make different calculations about their chances, and their popularity.

鈥淩ouhani is suffering this fear that he will not be reelected, and he is showing it,鈥� says Mikaeel Dayyani, the leader of a student group of basiji, a volunteer militia known for rigorous religious training, referring to Rouhani鈥檚 Kermanshah speech.

鈥淚t was the nuclear deal that helped him move forward鈥�.聽But one year [later] the [high] is over,鈥� and Rouhani鈥檚 votes 鈥渁re collapsing very much, day by day,鈥� he suggests.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 claim we will be able to win and make him one-term,鈥� says Mr. Dayyani. 鈥淏ut what I can say for sure is that Rouhani鈥檚 position is very fragile.鈥�

Yet that fragility may not translate into a new president next spring.

鈥淔or us it鈥檚 very important to know that when a hardliner says, 鈥楻ouhani is failing鈥� 鈥撀燼nd he is failing on some things 鈥撀爓hat is on the horizon? What is the alternative? There is no one else,鈥� says an Iranian analyst who asked not to be named.聽

鈥淲e are all going to elect Rouhani again, but the real problem is bigger,鈥� she insists. 鈥淲e will vote again, but there is a deep cleavage between the people and the Islamic Republic.鈥�