Central American politicians offer fewer freedoms to win more votes
| Guatemala City
He is the one leader in Central America whom the United States has commended for his 鈥渃ommitment to democracy.鈥� He is also the region鈥檚 least popular president.
Guatemalan President Bernardo Ar茅valo, after two years in office, has earned the nickname 鈥渢ibio,鈥� or lukewarm. It鈥檚 a stark contrast to the mood around him in 2023 when high-energy, pro-democracy protests propelled him to victory, despite an attorney general who tried to block Mr. Ar茅valo at every turn.
Today, amid insecurity and inflation, he has a 39% approval rating 鈥� half of what he enjoyed when he so remarkably took office in January 2024.
Why We Wrote This
Across Central America, voters are losing faith in democratic governments鈥� ability to curb rising crime rates. That has left the field open for authoritarian, not to say dictatorial, leaders.
Meanwhile, leaders of neighboring countries who have embraced democratic backsliding 鈥� or straight-up authoritarianism 鈥� are heaped with their citizens鈥� approval.
In Costa Rica, long a democratic mainstay in Central America, the president there has pledged to consolidate his power in order to fight violence. At the helm in Nicaragua is a totalitarian leader often categorized internationally as a dictator. Both leaders fare better than Mr. Ar茅valo in public polling.
And the most popular leader governs where democracy has been trampled the most in recent years 鈥� in El Salvador, where swashbuckling President Nayib Bukele has cracked down on civil liberties in his drive to slash murder rates.
In fact, it is Mr. Bukele鈥檚 mano dura, or ironfisted approach, that has most attracted admirers across Latin America amid rising violence 鈥� both real and perceived. The homicide rate is growing in places like Ecuador and Peru, but even where it remains steady, citizens identify crime and violence as top concerns.
Nearly 80% of Latin Americans who express high levels of trust in institutions 鈥� from the police to the justice system 鈥� also express support for democracy, linking faith in a government鈥檚 ability to deliver services like public security to satisfaction with the system of democracy. But public support for democracy is lower in Latin America today than it was two decades ago, according to the 2023 Pulse of Democracy report from Vanderbilt University.
The ease with which Mr. Bukele has accomplished goals so central to public wish lists in Latin America, like fighting violent crime, has left many in neighboring countries frustrated by the slow pace of traditional democracy. It could set back democratic gains won over the past several decades, as many nations moved away from military dictatorships and strengthened democratic institutions.
There is a sense that it would be possible to control insecurity, extortion, or gangs if only the national leader were willing to take the necessary steps, whether or not such actions were democratic, says Roberto Wagner, a Guatemalan analyst and expert in international relations.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 why many people say, 鈥楾here are no excuses for democratic governments to put off making changes,鈥欌�� he says.
Rooting out corruption?
Corruption and impunity are deep-seated challenges across Central America, contributing to high rates of poverty and crime.
Guatemala, for more than a decade, was the envy of the region due to an independent, anti-corruption body investigating everything from drug trafficking to government kickbacks. That all changed after the United Nations-funded commission, which put two former Guatemalan presidents behind bars, was shuttered in 2018. The government controversially chose not to renew its mandate.
In 2023, Mr. Ar茅valo campaigned on a platform of rooting out corruption. The attorney general, Consuelo Porras, had been sanctioned by the United States for undermining anti-corruption investigations. As president elect, Mr. Ar茅valo promised to get rid of her.
His success in reaching the runoff election had come as a surprise, with many in Guatemala鈥檚 political and economic elite considering Mr. Ar茅valo a threat to Guatemala鈥檚 status quo. But his pledges to bolster democratic institutions and to root out corruption, appealed to a population frustrated by a system of government that didn鈥檛 seem to be working for the people. The public prosecutor鈥檚 office tried to delegitimize Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 party and electoral victories, leading to a months-long national strike seeking to uphold democracy 鈥� and the public鈥檚 will.
Today, he鈥檚 losing his battle against Ms. Porras, despite popular support to remove her. His government says it lacks the legal authority to dismiss her. 鈥淢any people interpret my commitment to democracy as weakness,鈥� Mr. Ar茅valo told the BBC in September. 鈥淭hey say 鈥榟e should do a coup, with the police and the army and put them [enemies] in jail, he鈥檚 the commander in chief.鈥� But you can鈥檛 build a democracy with antidemocratic methods,鈥� he argued.
As Mr. Ar茅valo has dragged his feet, Ms. Porras has criminalized Guatemalans who participated in the 2023 pro-democracy strike. And that inaction gives him the reputation of being unable to get things done.
鈥淎s for Ar茅valo, no comment,鈥� says Marielos, a Guatemalan who didn鈥檛 want to be identified by her full name for her safety. 鈥淏ukele, on the other hand, is an excellent president because he has improved everything in every sense, especially security. He should unify Central America and lead it.鈥�
In late October, Guatemalan Judge Fredy Orellana issued a ruling that voided all actions by the president鈥檚 party, Semilla, alleging it had forged signatures to register the president鈥檚 candidacy in 2024. Mr. Ar茅valo accused the judge and Ms. Porras of leading an attempted coup, labeling them 鈥減ublic enemies鈥� in a nationwide television broadcast on Oct. 26. 鈥淧orras, Orellana, and their other pathetic conspirators have created a climate of terror to pave their way and sink our country,鈥� Mr. Ar茅valo said.
Although his response won approval from Guatemalans seeking more decisive action from the president, the fact that it took Mr. Ar茅valo almost two years 鈥� and a coup attempt 鈥� to call for Ms. Porras鈥檚 dismissal explains the frustration many here feel with the pace of change.
鈥淐itizens remain deeply dissatisfied with corruption, and not so much with authoritarianism,鈥� says Annelisse Escobar, professor of international relations at the Universidad del Valle de Guatemala. 鈥淲e are beginning to see an automatic rejection of the idea of democracy if what we understand by democracy is a system that can solve my problems and provide public services,鈥� she says.
鈥淣ot everyone is going to defend Ar茅valo anymore. We see those actors who fervently defended the election results and the people who participated strongly in those demonstrations, very disappointed, saying, 鈥榃e shouldn鈥檛 even have supported him because it wasn鈥檛 worth it,鈥欌�� Dr. Escobar says.
Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 popularity isn鈥檛 helped by Mr. Bukele鈥檚 success right next door in El Salvador.
鈥淓verything is tough in Guatemala,鈥� says Margarita, who asked not to be identified by her full name while discussing politics in Guatemala City鈥檚 historic center, pointing to issues like crime. 鈥淓l Salvador is so beautiful, it鈥檚 clean, and you can walk around safely,鈥� she says.
El Salvador tallied 2,398 murders in 2019, the year Mr. Bukele took office. Last year, there were only 114 murders nationwide, according to official figures. The increased security has given Salvadorans reprieve from gangs that for decades controlled their communities. And his approach has been heavily publicized abroad, targeting the three million Salvadorans that live in the U.S. and presenting Mr. Bukele as an effective, no-nonsense leader.
What the propaganda doesn鈥檛 say is this: El Salvador has became the country with the highest incarceration rate in the world. Constitutional rights, including the right to an attorney, have been suspended since 2022. Many activists and human right defenders have been exiled this year, and 60% of Salvadorans are now afraid to voice political opinions out of fear of government reprisals.
In 2020, President Bukele walked into parliament accompanied by heavily armed soldiers and policemen, to pressure lawmakers to approve a loan to fund his security plan. A year later, he dismissed the attorney general, who was investigating him and members of his Cabinet for corruption.
These were not democratic moves 鈥� but they were efficient, says professor Escobar. 鈥淭he only thing people want is to be safe,鈥� she says.
Costa Rica鈥檚 crime problem
In Costa Rica, the administration of President Rodrigo Chaves Robles has seen the most violent years in the country鈥檚 recent history, with almost 700 homicides by September 2025, outpacing the average of 500 annual homicides between 2016 and 2022. He applauds El Salvador鈥檚 security model, and he has brought the country, which famously doesn鈥檛 have an army and has long been considered a haven for democracy in the region, to a crossroads.
In the run-up to Costa Rica鈥檚 February presidential election, Mr. Bukele has made guest appearances in videos supporting Mr. Chaves. The association with Mr. Bukele has scored political points for Mr. Chaves, who is not a contender in the elections, but supports the ruling party candidate Laura Fern谩ndez, a former official in his administration.
Authoritarianism will be on the ballot in the February vote, says Ilka Treminio, a Costa Rican political scientist. 鈥淭he ruling party ... is considering the construction of a kind of mega prison, inspired by the Salvadoran CECOT,鈥� she says, referring to the prison where the U.S. sent third-country deportees earlier this year. 鈥淟aura Fern谩ndez, has said she would agree to apply states of exception in certain circumstances,鈥� she adds, referring to the suspension of some civil liberties in the name of improved security.
If Ms. Fern谩ndez becomes president, her administration would mean the 鈥渃ontinuity of Rodrigo Chaves鈥� political agenda,鈥� says Dr. Treminio.
Over the past four years, institutions and democracy have been weakened in Costa Rica. 鈥淚f there is another government with these characteristics, it will be very difficult to return to the democratic state that Costa Rica鈥� has historically been,鈥� Dr. Treminio worries.
Back in Guatemala, in October 2021, a clone of Bukele鈥檚 Nuevas Ideas party has started its registration process with the country鈥檚 Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
It鈥檚 expected to gain support from Guatemalans looking for drastic change, but Mr. Bukele鈥檚 reputation as an authoritarian is also raising some concerns. Mr. Bukele 鈥渨ill treat El Salvador like his property,鈥� says Lorenzo Gui茅rrez, a cab driver in Guatemala City. 鈥淎nd that鈥檚 not what Guatemala needs. What it needs is that we stand together, each doing our part.鈥�
