海角大神

Hamid Sadeghi stood in line to vote聽in east Tehran,聽taking young people to task for their disillusion over Iran鈥檚 slow pace of change, and vowing that 鈥� as a man who聽loves the 1979 Islamic revolution 鈥撀爃is ballot would聽help speed improvements.

A clothing manufacturer聽with gray stubble, Mr. Sadeghi voted in the Feb. 26 election聽for allies of President Hassan Rouhani,聽hoping聽to boost the president鈥檚 agenda of聽greater聽outreach聽to the West and聽looser social restrictions聽at home.聽Like many of those who turned out to vote for聽Mr.聽Rouhani鈥檚 camp聽鈥� and against the hard-liners鈥� grip on power 鈥� he had high hopes.

鈥淒uring these years of Mr. Rouhani, lots of things have changed, and聽lots toward reform,鈥澛爃e says. 鈥淕od-willing, if pro-Rouhani candidates come to parliament, progress will happen.鈥�

Many of these voters want it all: An instant revival of Iran鈥檚 economy; an end to its diplomatic isolation; and enhanced personal freedoms and a vibrant civil society. They are likely to be partially聽disappointed聽鈥� in terms of timeline, at least 鈥撀燿espite the electoral success for Rouhani鈥檚 side.

While聽Rouhani now has a revitalized mandate聽and聽faces聽a less hostile parliament, hard-line elements that fear any opening聽鈥� and have successfully blocked such change for nearly two decades 鈥撀爏till hold many cards.聽Iran鈥檚 supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes all final decisions on affairs of state, and is backed by a conservative deep-state apparatus that includes the deep-pocketed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps聽(IRGC), which runs a parallel foreign policy in conflict zones like Syria and Iraq. 聽

To prevail聽with his agenda, analysts say, Rouhani will have to continue a middle path, making gradual adjustments that may anger his reformist supporters, yet may succeed where聽previous reform-minded leaders failed to make change stick.

Alongside electing a new parliament, Iranians also voted in a new Assembly of Experts, the clerical body that will choose the next supreme leader. Iran鈥檚 key revolutionary leaders are in their 70s and 80s, adding a critical dimension to the country's future path.

鈥淭he next 10 years is going to be very important in Iran, because of the change in generation,鈥� says Hamid Reza Jalaeipour, a sociologist at Tehran University聽who edited a string of reformist newspapers in the late 1990s that were shut down.聽

That change, combined with Rouhani鈥檚 insider credentials and vow to 鈥渆nd extremism鈥� by plotting a middle, moderate course, will completely alter聽the political battlefield in Iran a decade from now, he says.聽

Though Rouhani鈥檚 statements are sometimes at odds with those of Mr. Khamenei, the centrist cleric often meets the leader to聽鈥渄iscuss and negotiate, and try to struggle with words,鈥澛爏ays Mr.聽Jalaeipour 鈥� a departure from previous presidents who were not trusted by Khamenei.聽鈥淲e don鈥檛 have聽any聽other way than reform, and it鈥檚 better than anything high risk.鈥澛�

A second step toward change

That was the calculation on Feb. 26, when聽a聽majority of聽voters聽sought to dilute the power of hard-liners, both in parliament and the Assembly of Experts.

Leaders of a reformist-moderate coalition portrayed this election as a聽second step聽toward change, after the聽first step of electing Rouhani in 2013. Since then, the president concluded聽last year鈥檚 landmark nuclear deal with聽the US and other聽world powers, which聽led to the lifting聽or suspension聽of onerous economic sanctions.

Some聽concrete changes are obvious: There are fewer morality police on the streets, tourism has surged 鈥撀爄ncluding for American tour groups 鈥撀燼nd a handful of US and European students have arrived.聽And while the economy has picked up and inflation is down, it has not come fast enough for many.聽

And many聽other聽problems remain: One of those American students was imprisoned for 41 days, accused of trying to overthrow the regime; at least two Iranian-American dual citizens remain in jail; and Rouhani has聽so far been prevented from fulfilling聽his聽campaign聽promise聽鈥� seen聽by many reformists聽as a key test of his clout 鈥撀爐o release from house arrest two former presidential candidates held since post-election protests in 2009.

Added to this, for months Khamenei has warned about 鈥渋nfiltrators鈥� and cultural 鈥渟oft war鈥� intrusions from the US and the West.聽His rhetoric is a direct riposte to President Obama, who argued that the nuclear deal would pave the way for a more accommodating Iran.

鈥淭he concern of the leader is penetration聽鈥� making a kind of velvet revolution or psychological war 鈥撀爐hat changes the minds of the people, and it [his concern] is rational,鈥� says Amir Mohebian, a conservative editor and analyst with close ties to all political factions.

鈥淚magine yourself as the leader. He has some supporters who are ready to give their lives for him and his ideology. On the other side are reformists.鈥�

He adds: 鈥淚f there is a crisis, who will defend the revolution? The same people who are fighting [Islamic State] in Syria鈥� 鈥撀燼 reference to the IRGC鈥檚 Qods Force and various Shiite volunteers who see their ultimate mission as protecting Iran and its Islamic Republic.

While of critical value to Khamenei for that reason, says Mohebian, such ideologues should not be given free rein in domestic politics.聽鈥淭he leader should save these people for the country. But they should be聽managed,鈥� he says.聽

How Khatami went too fast

For聽Iranians聽who want sweeping change, the definitive experience was the reformist presidency of Mohammad Khatami, from 1997 to 2005. For a time, politics and newspapers flourished as freely as did expectations of聽irreversible聽change.

But for hard-line聽clerics, including the supreme leader, and politicians and militants at their disposal,聽it was too much, too fast.聽Violent attacks on student and reformist meetings and newspaper offices halted Khatami鈥檚 agenda and paved the way for Khatami鈥檚 successor,聽the ultra-conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Analysts say that Rouhani learned that lesson and is acting to avoid聽the same mistake.

鈥淭he ruling system 鈥撀燤r. Khamenei 鈥撀爄s not optimistic about reformists, because whenever they have a chance, they attack him directly,鈥� says an analyst in Tehran, who asked not to be named. 鈥淪o first of all, Rouhani has to reassure the leader.鈥�

The nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions was聽Rouhani鈥檚 first priority, she says.聽But his failure to deliver on social and political change聽quickly enough聽has left many disappointed.

鈥淪o now reform can happen in society, but slowly, because Iranian society can mobilize easily,鈥� says the analyst. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a problem for every government, because even a small protest [by聽either side of the political聽divide] can become a very big one, very quickly 鈥� we should have patience.鈥澛�

For many Iranians, the smooth passing of the election and the results were in themselves a reassuring sign. Many were distrustful after the scarring post-election violence in 2009 and a 2012 parliamentary vote stacked in favor of hard-liners that many reformers chose to boycott.

鈥淒iplomacy-wise the nuclear deal was a big achievement,鈥� says Sadeghi, the clothing manufacturer. 鈥淏ut the economy needs time; you can鈥檛 declare it improved聽in six months聽or one year.鈥�

At an exquisitely tiled Tehran mosque, a clean-shaven young man cast a nighttime ballot. 鈥淚 am so proud of my people,鈥� he says, as swarms of Iranians sat on the floor to handwrite their ballots, and stood in long lines to vote on the sidewalk outside. 鈥淭hey are always active in an event like this."聽