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In bid to extend his grip, Turkish PM Erdogan to run for president

In power since 2003, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now running for president, a less powerful post. If he wins, he's expected to retool the largely symbolic position.

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Umit Bektas/AP
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan salutes his ruling party members before he has announced he is running for president in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, July 1, 2014.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, undaunted by a year of聽intermittent聽street protests and a聽lingering聽graft scandal, will run in the country's first direct presidential elections in August, his party announced聽on Tuesday.

The announcement came as no surprise.聽Mr. Erdogan, Turkey's most powerful politician in a generation, is nearing the end of his second term as prime minister, the maximum allowed by his party's bylaws.聽Winning the presidency, a hitherto less powerful post, offers him a chance to extend its rule, provided he can keep control of his party and聽of whoever succeeds him.

Erdogan said that the聽election聽would mark 鈥渁 turning point in the history of Turkey鈥 in a speech to members of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Ankara. The premier is overwhelmingly expected to win聽the presidential election.

鈥淎聽win for Erdogan聽will be more than an extension of his rule. It will take Turkey into truly uncharted territory,鈥 says Ersin Kalaycioglu, a professor of political science at Istanbul's private Sabanci University. 鈥淚n聽order to run Turkey from the presidency, he will have to聽dramatically聽retool the聽state's balance of powers."

Erdogan's ascension to the聽president's seat would聽seemingly lessen his authority,听by聽ending his tenure as prime minster and聽forcing him to resign his chairmanship聽of the AKP. Under Turkey's constitution, the presidency is framed as a largely apolitical and ceremonial post.

But analysts say that Erdogan will likely聽reshape聽the聽presidency into a more聽forceful聽position. 鈥淓rdogan could聽easily聽expand the powers of the office ... Remember, there is no impeachment process in our constitution,鈥 says Ozgur Unluhisarcikli聽the Ankara office director of聽German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Mr. Unluhisarcikli聽and others say Erdogan could make use of聽a聽constitutional clause that allows the president to chair cabinet meetings. The president can already veto laws and appoint judges. In 2011, Erdogan tried and failed to get bipartisan support for constitutional reform that would have greatly strengthened the office's powers.

Close Erdogan advisor聽Yalcin Akdogan,听writing聽in the pro-government daily Star,听recently argued聽that聽Erdogan would win 鈥渁 wider democratic mandate鈥 as president, and that he would not聽stretch the powers of president beyond those described in the constitution.聽

Moderating voice

Turkey's current president, Abdullah Gul, an AKP cofounder, has used the post to voice his opposition to the brash premier, who has tried to limit the judiciary and expand internet surveillance.

Mr. Gul has indicated that he plans to leave politics after his term ends in August. He says he has no plans to serve as prime minister, dismissing a Putin-Medvedev style swap as 鈥渁 model that wouldn't be a completely suitable in Turkey.鈥 Russian President Vladimir Putin served one term as prime minister before returning as president in 2012; Dimitry Medvedev was the intervening president.聽

Gul's departure 鈥渨ould deprive the AKP of moral leadership and a key moderate voice,鈥 says Sinan Ulgen, a Turkish policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 鈥淲ithout Gul acting as an anchor, Erdogan's party may continue its drift towards more divisive, less centrist politics.鈥 Mr. Ulgen predicts that Erdogan would appoint a "blind loyalist" as his successor as prime minister.聽

Erdogan's main opponent in the presidential election will be聽Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, a聽joint candidate fielded by Turkey's two largest opposition parties.聽An Islamic scholar and former head of the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation, Mr. Ihsanoglu聽is palatable聽to conservative Muslim voters that are Erdogan's electoral base.聽

鈥淭his marks a historic shift for Turkey's opposition parties. They sense that a secular candidate can't win, that you have to appeal to the nation's pious as Erdogan does,鈥 says Mr. Kalaycioglu.

Popularity endures

Opinion polls put Erdogan's support at over 50 percent, with Ihsanoglu's near聽35 percent. Sellatin Demirtas, a Kurdish candidate,听has聽around ten percent of the vote.

The AKP remains popular in Turkey.聽In March it聽handily won a round of local elections, despite months of street protests and the resignation of four ministers over a corruption scandal.

The next electoral test will come in 2015,听when the country's next round of parliamentary elections are scheduled. 鈥淭he AKP's performance relies primarily on the economy and if it can moderate its rhetoric,鈥 says Ulgen. 鈥淭his聽[presidential]聽election may seem a foregone conclusion, but the AKP's fate is still very much up in the air.鈥

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