海角大神

Libya should be a success story. Its small, mostly urban population sits on vast oil wealth, and it is free of the quixotic repression of聽former leader Muammar Qaddafi. So why聽does the country seem headed for breakdown?

Key聽oil facilities have been blockaded by militias that the central government is powerless to stop.聽Unemployment is high, especially for youth. Last week Ali Zeidan, the second post-revolution leader, also became the second to be removed by vote of no confidence.

Libya鈥檚 competing political forces, militias, sclerotic public services, and weak state institutions聽appeared to confound聽diplomats who met last week in Rome聽to try to resolve the faltering transition.聽The meeting produced hand-wringing, but no solutions.

Yet聽Libyans are starting businesses, forming civil society groups, developing media, and pursuing education.聽While聽leaders stress the need for international assistance, Libya鈥檚聽saving grace may turn out to be its citizens鈥� ability to soldier on.

鈥淚t鈥檚 about people,鈥� says Mohamed Hammuda, an architecture and urban planning student who heads H20, a transparency advocacy group that monitors Libya鈥檚 interim parliament. 鈥淲hen they start to believe that they have to work, not simply rely on oil revenues, we can make change on the ground.鈥�

Jaded voters

Libyans used to have hope in politics. In July 2012, Libyans voted for the first time in more than four decades to create the General National Congress (GNC), an interim parliament charged with overseeing the drafting of a constitution. Martyrs鈥� Square in Tripoli, where Qaddafi had harangued crowds and his gunmen opened fire on protesters, was a sea of smiling faces聽and Libyan flags.

But GNC members聽bickered聽for months over whether a constitutional drafting committee should be appointed or elected,聽and later over the electoral law. Increasingly, they have traded finger-pointing聽with the executive branch聽over聽problems ranging from insecurity to the slow pace of transition.

鈥淲hen we see conflicts among the authorities, when we see money misspent 鈥� all that sounds an alarm,鈥� says Lubna al Muntasser, a women鈥檚 rights activist in Tripoli聽who ran in constitutional drafting committee elections on Feb. 20.

By then, most Libyans were too jaded to bother voting. Yet many turned out to protest two weeks earlier, on聽Feb. 7, when the GNC extended its time in office past its mandate.

For聽Mohib Abuhol, a burly, good-natured former rebel fighter from the mountain town of Yefren,聽Feb. 7聽was his cue to resign from the Libya Shield forces, local militias contracted by the defense ministry.

鈥淚 was a revolutionary fighter, then I voted to elect the congress, but today we see no new companies, no new hotels, and young men have nothing,鈥� he says. 鈥淲hy extend [the GNC] when it has done nothing good?鈥�

Money can't fix it聽

Progress takes time, argues Said Khattaly, a GNC member and chairman of its foreign affairs committee. Especially in Libya, where local militias outgun state security forces. Some have threatened lawmakers into passing legislation; others have seized eastern oil ports. State institutions inherited from Qaddafi鈥檚 regime are largely shells.

Leaders, however,聽have tended to respond to problems by throwing money at them. Efforts to buy militia obedience through structures such as Libya Shield have had mixed success;聽last November, grudge-fueled skirmishing in Tripoli among militiamen on the government payroll escalated, killing dozens of civilians.

In hopes of appeasing the public, leaders have poured most state spending into聽goods subsidies 鈥� gasoline in Tripoli is cheaper than bottled water, at $0.12 a liter 鈥� and what critics describe as a bloated public sector.

鈥淭he true problem is that Libya鈥檚 government fails to restructure the budget,鈥� says a central bank official who asked not to be quoted because he was unauthorized to speak to media. 鈥淪alaries grow, subsidies grow, all at the expense of investment.鈥�

Such spending聽impedes private sector growth that might give young men employment options other than militia work, the bank official says. It also leads to unnecessary bureaucracy at the expense of quality public services.

State hospitals epitomize that problem. While doctors are typically well-trained, administrative procedures are labyrinthine聽and hospitals under-equipped, says a Western diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Azzedine Zwari, a young father of two who lives down a muddy alley in Tripoli鈥檚 old city, can vouch for that. About six months ago, a shotgun blast in an altercation with other men broke his upper left arm. State doctors in Tripoli patched him up and affixed a metal brace, but said he needed treatment聽unavailable in Libya.聽Last month聽he traveled to a聽private clinic in Sfax, Tunisia, for care.

鈥淭his is why I鈥檓 not voting,鈥� he says defiantly, referring to the Feb. 20 elections.

According to Hedi Mezghani, the Tunisian doctor who treated Zwari, he still needs a bone graft. For now, Dr. Mezghani has removed his metal brace, cleaned his wounds, and fitted him with a padded neck-sling. Zwari is back in Tripoli, with bandages and antiseptic liquids that he keeps under his bed, wondering how he鈥檒l pay for聽more聽treatment.

Self starters

Still,聽there are signs of Libyans moving forward聽and dragging their聽country with them: the new internet company offering satellite connections; the TV news reporter who worked his way up from hotel night clerk; Mr. Hammuda鈥檚 NGO, which has grown from three to 80 members, he says.

There is Majda Shtewi, an energetic obstetrician who is shifting her career to teaching graphic design. Three months ago she took a six-week course on small business development put on by the Libya office of Mennonite Economic Development Associates (MEDA), a Canadian NGO, with funding from US Agency for International Development and support from other Libyan NGOs. In June, she hopes to win prize money to launch her project: a small teaching workshop equipped with rows of tables and computers.

In her own computer she keeps her drawings. One of her favorites shows a man heaving himself up a suspended Libyan flag, like a rope, whose bottom corner is knotted to a white cloth. The cloth, says Ms. Shtewi, represents all the empty ideologies that Libyans, through revolution, can transcend. The image, in essence, is one of renewal.