With Iran nuclear deal missed, world powers rush back to talks
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| Istanbul
A blame game has erupted between the US and Iran over who is responsible for the failure to reach an initial deal to curb Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, despite days of unprecedented high-level diplomacy.
Such a deal has never been closer, diplomats say, and talks are set to resume in Geneva in just eight days. But competing narratives of what took place over the weekend are being used by both sides to jab at each other 鈥撀燼nd to quell hard-line opponents of any deal聽who think their side is giving too much away.听
The decision to meet again so quickly may prevent hawks in Congress from torpedoing the process with more sanctions. In Iran, it may keep open the window endorsed by Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
鈥淚t鈥檚 an incredible shame that we have had this erupt into public recrimination,鈥 says Shashank Joshi, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. The chain of events 鈥渃an easily have a cyclical effect, and can easily allow spoilers to exploit these small breaches to pull on the string and unravel the whole thing."
Timing is everything, Mr. Joshi says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there is enough time for Congress to do anything really reckless, nor do I think there is enough time for Iranian hardliners to really exert significant pressure,鈥 he says. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e kept up enough momentum to make sure that Khamenei鈥檚 authority will carry with them until the next round.鈥
Fingers pointing every way
The turn toward mutual accusations聽is a sharp departure from聽weeks in which all sides agreed not to discuss details of talks and聽months in which聽negotiators all聽but cooed about renewed prospects for a deal despite 10 years of failed diplomacy.听The June election of聽President Hassan Rouhani, a centrist who vows 鈥渕oderation," sent hopes for a deal skyrocketing.听
US Secretary of State John Kerry said the six world powers negotiating with Iran in Geneva were聽unified聽behind the latest offer to Iran and made no mention of the French role in hardening an earlier offer that had already been largely worked out with Iran.
鈥淭he French signed off on it, we signed off on it, and everybody agreed it was a fair proposal,鈥 Mr. Kerry said聽on Monday聽in聽Abu Dhabi, about the P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany). 鈥淭here was unity, but Iran couldn鈥檛 take it at that particular moment.鈥澛
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif responded on Twitter, directly chiding Kerry and referring to France as the spoiler.
鈥淢r. Secretary, was it Iran that gutted over half of US draft聽Thursday聽night? and publicly commented against it聽Friday morning?鈥澛.听
Iran is 鈥渃ommitted to constructive engagement鈥o achieve shared objectives,鈥澛. : 鈥淣o amount of spinning can change what happened within 5+1 in Geneva from聽6PM Thursday聽to 545 PM聽Saturday. But it can further erode confidence.鈥
Zarif鈥檚 comment referred to French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who raised the ire of fellow diplomats when he broke protocol by discussing details of the talks,聽saying early in the process that "nothing has been agreed yet," and later that France would not accept a 鈥渇ool鈥檚 game.鈥
The preliminary deal now under discussion is meant to stop Iran鈥檚 program advancing for six months, while a permanent agreement is reached that would prevent Iran from being able to acquire nuclear weapons, an ambition Iran says it rejects.
Mr. Fabius said France would insist聽in the initial deal聽that Iran halt work on its Arak heavy water reactor and shrink its stockpile of enriched uranium 鈥 issues that other nations expected to feature in the final stages, months from now.
Another complication was a聽dispute over whether Iran鈥檚 鈥渞ight鈥 to enrich 鈥 which Tehran demands be included in the endgame of any deal 鈥 would be mentioned in the preamble of the current text.听
The last minute recalibration was confirmed by British Foreign Secretary William Hague.听
鈥淭he position put to Iran by all of us together in the final hours of the discussions鈥ad been amended in the light of comments from various of the parties concerned,鈥 Mr. Hague told Parliament in London yesterday. 鈥淎 completely united position was put to the Iranians at the close of our discussions, so reports of vetoes by one country, or obstruction by any country, should be seen in that light.鈥澛
Hague said it was a 鈥減ity鈥 that a deal had not been reached, 鈥渂ecause even losing 10 days implies some loss of momentum here.鈥
The French role led to an 鈥11th-hour toughening鈥 of the offer to Iran after 60 hours of negotiations 鈥 much of it used by the P5+1 to find a common position 鈥 which left 鈥渓ittle time for the Iranians to respond,鈥 reported The Guardian.
鈥淲e were very, very close actually, extremely close鈥 to a deal, Kerry . Close contact between the US and Iran was a bonus, he said: 鈥淲e haven鈥檛 been speaking for 35 years. We just talked more in 30 hours than we have in those prior 30 years.鈥
Russia said that meant failure "was not the fault of the Iranians," and that the US should not blame Iran, according to a Russian foreign ministry official widely quoted by Russian news agencies today. "Such an interpretation simplifies to an extreme and even distorts what happened in Geneva," the official said.
Inspections moving ahead
Separately聽on Monday, Iran signed a deal with the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency to provide 鈥渕anaged access鈥 for inspectors to a heavy water production plant and a uranium mine.
The deal is the first聽step forward聽in two years of talks between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on access issues and outstanding questions about possible past weapons-related work by Iran.听
IAEA inspectors have already done more man-hour inspections in Iran than any other country. Both sides聽agreed聽to cooperate more closely to ensure the 鈥渆xclusively peaceful nature of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program鈥 and to 鈥渞esolve all present and past issues.鈥澛
Noticeably absent was any reference to Parchin, a sprawling military complex south of Tehran which the IAEA has聽requested to visit multiple times to address聽suspicions that implosion experiments may have been carried out a decade ago.听Reports over the聽last two years聽state that the site has undergone dramatic changes that could have erased any evidence of past work.
鈥淭his is an important step forward to start with, but much more needs to be done,鈥 IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said in Tehran, as the deal was signed. 聽聽
鈥淢y own sense is the IAEA process, including this new framework, is pretty much entirely hostage to what happens in Geneva,鈥 says Joshi of RUSI. Absent a broader deal there, 鈥渋t is inconceivable to me that Iran would give meaningful access to the IAEA, because why鈥ive up something that could be used as a bargaining chip that could be used in subsequent negotiations?鈥