海角大神

Politically moderate cleric Hassan Rohani won a first-round victory in Iran鈥檚 presidential election, a stunning result that heralds change 鈥� both in tone, and almost certainly in substance 鈥� for the Islamic Republic.

Mr. Rohani, a former nuclear negotiator, polled聽three times as many votes as his nearest rival to garner 50.71 percent of all ballots cast, enough to avoid an expected runoff. He faced down a host of conservatives in Friday鈥檚 vote, stating at the ballot box that he had 鈥渃ome to destroy extremism.鈥�

Rohani built his campaign around promises to ease Iran鈥檚 tensions with the West, end international sanctions, allow greater freedom of the press and reduce government interference in private lives. Ahead of the vote many said that Rohani鈥檚 candidacy was little more than window dressing, permitted by Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to boost turnout among disillusioned Iranians and erase memories of the violent,聽fraud-tainted 2009 election.

But with the cleric now officially Iran's president-elect, after聽capitalizing on discontent within the electorate聽and divisions in the conservative camp, Khamenei聽may be as surprised as anyone about the result. The surge for Rohani began just 72 hours before the vote 鈥� fueled by endorsements from former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 鈥� and has now shocked Khamenei and the rest of the conservative establishment.聽

There is shock, too, for all those Iranians who planned to boycott the election because they considered their votes 鈥渦seless鈥� in a rigged system, yet voted anyway 鈥� pushing official turnout聽to聽roughly 72聽percent 鈥� and聽 found their choice accurately reflected in the result.

鈥淭he Climax of a Political Epic 鈥� World was Stunned Again,鈥� proclaimed the hardline Kayhan newspaper. One Iranian Tweet distilled the surprise: 鈥淔our years ago today we were on the street in disbelief, chanting 鈥榃here is my vote?鈥� This is a different kind of disbelief.鈥�

Khamenei had called for a large turnout to defeat Iran鈥檚 鈥渆nemies,鈥� and to restore legitimacy to an Islamic system tarnished by Iran's fraud-tainted 2009 election, which brought millions of Iranians to the streets in weeks of protest that were violently crushed amid chants of 鈥淒eath to the Dictator!鈥�

Iranian pendulum

鈥淲hat we are seeing is a swing of the pendulum, with a clear understanding of what happened before,鈥� says Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. Critical was the ability of Mr. Khatami and Mr. Rafsanjani to work together, 鈥減rodded by鈥�the rank and file in the provinces鈥� to do something 鈥渘o matter how flawed [the election] is."

鈥淥nce they became convinced that conservative forces have a stake in running an adequately fair election 鈥� a proper election, in terms of its mechanism 鈥� then the game became extremely political and strategic. It worked, and one has to give kudos to two former presidents who now are leaders of the country, because they have proven they can mobilize voters,鈥� she says.

In the months prior to the vote, the regime insisted that the 鈥渟edition鈥� of 2009 would not be repeated. Journalists were arrested or harassed months ago. Revolutionary Guard commanders issued warnings against interference at home and abroad.

The 686 people who registered to run were whittled down to just eight candidates by the Guardian Council, which disqualified Rafsanjani as well as the chosen successor of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose second term ends in August.

Khamenei and other elements of the ruling system made clear their preference that one of the six hardline contenders should win. Among them are the popular Tehran mayor Mahammed Baqr Qalibaf and current nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. Against such well-known opponents close to the Supreme Leader, Rohani was given little hope.

But events combined to provide the 鈥渉ope鈥� and 鈥減rudence鈥� that were the catchwords of his campaign. Conservatives were divided, their votes split among themselves. And after a third televised debate 鈥� in which Rohani claimed he had 鈥渘ever lied鈥� to the Iranian people 鈥� fellow reformist candidate Mohammad Reza Aref withdrew from the race. High-profile endorsements began to pile-up and Rohani began to ride the crest of a popular surge.

鈥淲e are seeing again that the Islamic Republic is a wizard at turning the elections into an event, and always provides us with a surprise,鈥� says a mother in Tehran, who had vowed not to cast a "worthless" vote before the election.

Today she marvels that the vote count was 鈥渟o measured and meticulous鈥� compared to 2009, and quipped that her 鈥渏aw is hurting from repeated falling motion, chest getting bruised... this election is merely an indication that maybe the Leader is feeling less bloody-minded after learning a hard lesson through his selection of Ahmadinejad [in 2005 and 2009] and is now ready to be more pragmatic to save the Islamic system."

Hardliners and blame

Hardliners did not blame Khamenei for the result, but in some cases themselves. An editorial today in Tabnak, which is run by candidate and former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei, explained the loss under the headline: 鈥淲hy is defeat necessary?"聽

鈥淧eople of Iran said no to fundamentalists because they were unhappy about the way the country was being managed and were hurt because of it,鈥� Tabnak said. Iranians wanted a president who 鈥渄oes not only chant slogans inside and outside Iran and bring fundamentally negative changes to their lives.鈥�

Votes were counted far more slowly than in 2009, when complete results were published by a semi-official news agency while the polls were still open, then taken down only to be re-posted with precisely the same numbers later.

The reformist candidates in that election, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, leaders of the so-called Green Movement who challenged the 2009 result and Khamenei, remain under house arrest in Tehran. The Supreme Leader said today鈥檚 result would help overcome the ghosts of 2009. Khamenei did not speak as ballots were being counted, but his office tweeted: 鈥淚n 2009 was same excitement but w/ insults; this election has no disrespect. It鈥檚 valuable that we鈥檝e progressed so much in 4 years.鈥�

In another tweet, Khamenei said: 鈥�2009 unrests were all about to hurt [popular] base of Revolution while West propagandized 'people lost confidence.' No! People & System got mutual confidence.鈥�

Rafsanjani appears to agree with him. Iranian media quoted the former president today saying it was the 鈥渕ost democratic election in the world and there are not flaws in the election.鈥�

Gracious in victory and defeat

Overnight all six candidates issued a joint statement calling on their supporters not to demonstrate or make celebrations until the results were out. By late afternoon, Rohani had called on his supporters not to 鈥済ather against the law,鈥� and that any gathering would only be after official announcements and with legal permission.

鈥淚f this result stands, the Western narrative stating that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the [Revolutionary Guard] are all-powerful needs to be revisited,鈥� wrote Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, in an analysis from Washington. 鈥淭hough hardliners remain in control of key aspects of Iran鈥檚 political system, the centrists and reformists have proven that even when the cards are stacked against them, they can still prevail due to their support among the population."

Mr. Parsi wrote that 鈥淩ohani will likely try to move to the middle now and be a unifying president.鈥�

As voting was extended by five hours on Friday, there were noticeable differences compared to 2009. State TV channel IRIB broadcast that candidate representatives were allowed to stay in polling stations until the counting was done. The head of the election headquarters Seyed Solat Mortazavi last night said he would look into reports of Jalili campaign material being distributed at polling stations and 鈥渨e will confront such behavior.鈥� Journalists were not kicked out of the Interior Ministry as results were coming in, as they were in 2009.

鈥淣ow because people are so shocked, they think that Mr. Khamenei has planned all these things to reinvent the Islamic system,鈥� says Farhi in Hawaii. Instead, the results illustrate that there is 鈥渞eal politics going on [across] contested political terrain鈥� in Iran, which shows the limits of Khamenei鈥檚 ability to shape events. 鈥淭he Islamic Republic has developed so many competing institutions, and competing political forces鈥� that the consolidation of conservatives since 2005 was not likely to last, says Farhi.

鈥淭he policies of the last eight years so clearly failed, in terms of improving the lot of the Iranian population, that now there is an adjustment. If it didn鈥檛 happen, then there was something wrong.鈥�

Yet Khamenei would have been as surprised as any at the Rohani victory. 鈥淸Khamenei] is the leader who made the decision in 2009 to come out and say publicly that his views are closer to Ahmadinejad. He identified himself not as the father of the nation, but as player in these things,鈥� adds Farhi. 鈥淪o he is paying for that political mistake,鈥� she says. 鈥淒oes this mean that he鈥檚 going to disappear, and the office of the Leader is not going to be powerful anymore? Absolutely not.鈥�

(This story was updated after first posting to show that Rohani had won).