海角大神

Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader is pushing hard for high turnout in presidential elections聽on Friday, hoping voters will 鈥渄isappoint the enemy鈥� in a 鈥済reat divine test鈥� and bury the memory of Iran鈥檚 fraud-tainted 2009 vote.

Describing聽the post-election unrest that year as 鈥渟edition,"聽Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared,聽鈥淓very vote that the people cast 鈥� is primarily a vote of confidence for the Islamic Republic and for our electoral mechanism."

And for many Iranians who took to the streets that year to protest electoral fraud 鈥� three million in one day in Tehran alone聽鈥� that is precisely why they are either torn about voting again, or refuse to do so.听

鈥淧ost-2009, I鈥檇 rather make sure that my hands are clean, that the blood that was spilt doesn鈥檛 taint me for the sake of a worthless ballot paper and a moment, a mere nanosecond of satisfaction through the illusion that I make a difference,鈥� says a Tehran mother who took part in the 2009 protests and asked not to be further identified. 鈥淣ot voting is possibly the most potent weapon now left for us.鈥�

But the presence of a viable reformist candidate聽in a race that has long been expected to produce an unflashy and unambitious conservative loyalist of Khamenei聽could make an unexpected difference.

Khamenei told Iranians today that his 鈥渋nsistence鈥� on high turnout would force Iran鈥檚 foes to 鈥渞educe pressures and follow another path.鈥� He added, uncharacteristically, that even while some 鈥渄on鈥檛 want to back Islamic system,鈥� they should still vote to support their nation.

For the regime, high turnout would be a 鈥渞eaffirmation that, 鈥榃e have overcome the crisis, and our electoral process is the only mechanism,鈥欌�� says an Iranian political scientist now in Washington, who asked not to be further identified. 鈥淪o if they can achieve that 鈥� even if they can pretend to achieve that 鈥� it would be for them a victory.鈥�

Reformist comeback

There will be six candidates on the ballot, dominated by the predicted handful of lackluster conservatives. But there is also a moderate: former nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani, who appears to have gained a degree of popular support in recent days, along with the endorsement of two key former presidents.

The last two reformist presidential candidates in 2009, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, both previous holders of top regime posts, remain under house arrest in Tehran. Hundreds of their key supporters were imprisoned after weeks of protests that left scores dead. Protestors聽chanted 鈥淒eath to the Dictator!鈥� and defaced portraits of Khamenei; their Green Movement was violently crushed.

In recent weeks聽even Rohani campaign staffers have been arrested when pro-Mousavi chants erupted at Rohani events.

But聽Rohani聽has now聽won the endorsement of former two-time president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a regime stalwart who was among nearly 700 candidates rejected by the Guardian Council. As a man who could potentially challenge Khamenei, his registration sparked high popular interest in the vote.

Rafsanjani said Iran's "current condition is critical," and that leaders must be able to "comprehend the youth's desires" and not "create 鈥� threats and more enemy sanctions due to extremism and imprudence."聽

And Rohani聽also聽received the backing of Mohammad Khatami, the reformist president who won unprecedented landslide victories in 1997 and 2001 and remains one of Iran鈥檚 most popular politicians. His backing will help Rohani pursue his catchwords of 鈥渦nity and hope鈥� as he faces the divided conservatives.听Mr. Khatami said that with Rohani a contender, "all of us must put laxity aside and wholeheartedly enter the scene" by voting.

鈥淒espite eight years of subversion, Rafsanjani and Khatami鈥檚 popularity increased,鈥� Rohani鈥檚 campaign media staff wrote in a tweet today. 鈥淓veryone must know that subversives and liars have no place in Iran.鈥�

Other tweets describe how a 鈥渟urge鈥� in Rohani鈥檚 popularity has 鈥減ropelled him to frontrunner status.鈥�

鈥淭he very fact that reformists are actually making a comeback, and swallowing their pride, and sticking with the political process even though they have been crushed 鈥� that may indicate all sides want 鈥� less than a total confrontation,鈥� says the Iranian political scientist.

鈥淚鈥檓 surprised by how the reformists have been able to pull together, despite all this onslaught, disqualifications, activists in jail and everything else; they are really having a chance,鈥� says the academic. 鈥淭hey have been persistent and survivors. The system has not been able to eliminate them.鈥�

Will my vote matter?

But the decision to vote also comes down to聽individual perceptions聽about how much of a difference their vote might make.听

鈥淎ctivism does not only take place in the streets, it also happens in conversations regarding whether to vote or not鈥�. Whatever they decide, they want their action to have political meaning,鈥� writes Iran specialist Farideh Farhi of the University of Hawaii at Manoa, .听

鈥淕iven the dynamic state-society relations of the Islamic Republic and societal demands that clearly remain unfulfilled, it would be quite unnatural if at least some parts of Iran鈥檚 vibrant, highly urbanized and differentiated society did not debate the legitimacy, role, and weight of the electoral system 鈥� after what happened in 2009,鈥� says Ms. Farhi.

She quotes Abbas Abdi, a reformist journalist who has done jail time, describing how he will vote despite having his 鈥渓ivelihood 鈥� repeatedly undermined by the authorities.鈥� Mr. Abdi said his main reason 鈥渦nder the current conditions is opening this path and returning critics to the official arena of the country.鈥�

The debate about voting is playing itself out vividly in Facebook聽posts, sometimes with curious logic.听

鈥淚 voted in 2009 for Mir Hossein: They stole my vote and told me, 鈥榊our vote has no value, we decide for you,鈥欌�� reads one post in Persian. 鈥淚 will vote again so they count it or force them to steal it. I won鈥檛 let the Ruler鈥檚 candidate win easily鈥�. The thieves want me not to vote: 鈥榊ou are nobodies.鈥� I will vote, to increase the cost of making us nobodies higher for the Ruler.鈥�

Political jockeying

Beside Rohani, there are currently five other candidates 鈥撀燼ll of them conservatives with different experiences but few clear solutions for easing Iran鈥檚 economic woes, lifting聽sanctions pressure imposed by the US, United Nations, and European Union over Iran鈥檚 nuclear program; or even resolving the nuclear dispute.

Saeed Jalili, Iran鈥檚 current nuclear negotiator, and Ali Akbar Velayati, a veteran foreign minister who is Khamenei鈥檚 foreign policy advisor, are believed to be closest to the Supreme Leader. Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqr Qalibaf is popular for his management of Iran鈥檚 unruly capital city,聽and as an Iran-Iraq war veteran, he appeals to a broad spectrum of Iranians. But聽as a former police chief聽he聽has also been tarred by his still-unclear role in violent suppression of student and street protests in 1999 and 2003.

The candidates have engaged in three debates, but only in the third did they show different positions on key issues like nuclear negotiations with world powers.听

Rohani got this far in the process, despite a rumor this week that the Guardian Council might revoke its approval for him to run. He talks about the need to improve human rights in Iran, the people鈥檚 voice, and other issues that have been largely absent from political discourse throughout President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad鈥檚 eight years in power. During that time, Khamenei has ensured that Iran鈥檚 political space has shifted far to the right.

Khamenei 鈥渋s concerned with the election鈥檚 legitimacy, but his goal above all else is to ensure a stable election that produces a president loyal to him personally,鈥� writes Alireza Nader of the RAND Corporation, .

The result, Mr. Nader concludes, is that 鈥渢he vote of the Iranian population will be largely irrelevant, as the election is a jockeying for power among competing factions rather than as an expression of popular will.鈥�

If Rohani 鈥撀爄ronically the only cleric in the race to be lead an 鈥淚slamic republic" 鈥撀爂ains momentum, earning the backing of various stripes of moderates and reformists, it might motivate those who felt cheated in 2009.

鈥淭he whole concept of [reformists] pushing and pushing, and not letting Khamenei dictate everything has become in and of itself an end for some,鈥� says the Iranian academic in Washington.

鈥淚t鈥檚 highly unlikely there will be as massive a turnout as [2009], but still it will be more than we all expected a few months ago,鈥� he notes. 鈥淪ome people say: 鈥業f the system鈥檚 favorite candidate is Jalili, so our primary goal should be to not let that happen.鈥� So it鈥檚 not important who becomes the president, it鈥檚 important who does not become the president.鈥�