海角大神

Russia has called for restraint after a fresh wave of fighting erupted Saturday between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The territory, which lies within Azerbaijan but is populated largely by Armenians, has been the focus of a frozen conflict ever since the conclusion of a six-year war in 1994 that left 30,000 dead.

The intractability of the situation led to the creation of the Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, France, and the United States, to seek a solution. But Russia, the country most heavily involved on the ground, has a complex array of interests at stake.

鈥淩ussia is the main security guarantor for Armenia, but it sells weapons to both countries,鈥� says Jeffrey Mankoff, a former adviser on US-Russia relations at the US State Department, in a telephone interview with 海角大神.

鈥淩ussia is not just looking for peace, but is rather looking for some arrangement that maximizes their regional influence over both countries.鈥�

Nagorno-Karabakh dissolved into conflict in 1988, as the Soviet Union was disintegrating, with Azerbaijani troops and Armenian separatists clashing in a brutal war.

A Russian-brokered ceasefire has maintained an uneasy truce ever since 1994, with periodic bouts of violence breaking out, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) set up the Minsk Group that same year to .

In this latest outbreak of hostility, it is hard to know how it began or what has actually happened, with PanARMENIAN.net talking of Azerbaijani 鈥渟aboteurs鈥� being thrown 鈥溾��, and AzerNews stating 鈥渙n the night of April 2, all the frontier positions of Azerbaijan were .鈥�

Perhaps more interesting than the details of the latest hostilities, says Dr. Mankoff, who is currently deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Russia and Eurasia Program, is the fact that the presidents of both countries are in the United States for the nuclear security summit, giving them a far larger global audience than they would normally expect.

So, if this latest development does represent some kind of a cry for international attention, what hope is there of a peaceful resolution?

鈥淚f there鈥檚 going to be a settlement, it will have to be on Russia鈥檚 terms,鈥� says Mankoff. 鈥淵es, there鈥檚 the Minsk group, but Russia has 5,000 troops in Armenia, and I鈥檝e heard they sent more.鈥�

The Russian troops鈥� main role, as Mankoff explains, is to deter Turkish involvement, should there be a serious resumption of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey and Azerbaijan have a close relationship, and Turkey鈥檚 border with Armenia has remained closed for two decades because of this conflict.

The position of the United States is that Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed region, but other surrounding tracts of land that Armenia has accumulated amount to occupied territory and should be returned.

Yet, while Azerbaijan is unlikely to take the risk of invading Nagorno-Karabakh, geography and a predominantly Armenian population making it a daunting challenge, many Azeris detect double-standards in the West鈥檚 approach.

鈥淭hey wonder why the West punishes Russia for annexing Crimea, but not Armenia for similar behavior in Karabakh,鈥� notes The Economist. 鈥淢any ask why the West approves of Ukraine using force to restore territorial integrity, but insists on .鈥�

Nobody has formally recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Armenia; even the Armenian government has made no effort to聽annex聽the territory.

And yet while full-scale military intervention - by any party - seems highly unlikely, there is also a question mark over how seriously Russia, the main power-broker, wants to pursue full-scale peace.

鈥淩ussia doesn鈥檛 want conflict because it鈥檚 trying to increase its influence over both countries,鈥� says Mankoff. 鈥淚f they can do that through resolving the conflict, then that鈥檚 an option, but failing that, the status quo benefits Russia fairly well.鈥澛�