Hungary elections: A wake-up call to the resilience of democracy?
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Mark Sappenfield Senior global correspondent
| Berlin
It would be hard to overstate the significance of the remarkable events Sunday in Hungary.
For Europe, the emphatic election defeat of Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n arguably removes the single most powerful and influential opponent to the European Union鈥檚 broad goals, and particularly its support for Ukraine.
For an American presidential administration seeking to recast the democratic order at home and abroad in its own image, Hungarian voters just scrapped one of its favorite examples. Mr. Orb谩n鈥檚 staying power, dominating Hungary鈥檚 politics with an unabashedly far-right doctrine for 16 years, made him an inspiration for like-minded parties worldwide.
Why We Wrote This
Whatever the political ramifications for Hungary, Europe, or the United States, Viktor Orb谩n鈥檚 electoral defeat Sunday night showed that elections still matter 鈥� and that democracies are more resilient than the current era might make them seem.
Yet none of that, really, is why Mr. Orb谩n lost.
He lost because change inevitably happens when elections are free enough to give the voters a legitimate voice. The story of his political demise is, in the end, not so different from countless democratic elections everywhere. The economy stagnated, highlighting levels of corruption that became intolerable to voters, who then lost trust in Mr. Orb谩n鈥檚 ability to guide them to better lives.
The implications will be huge. The EU will likely be empowered to act more decisively and with a greater spirit of unity on some key issues. Europe鈥檚 far-right parties might see United States President Donald Trump differently. Hungary is poised for sweeping anti-corruption reforms.
But the election might not be the bellwether on far-right politics or European integration some might hope or claim. Instead, it points to democracies鈥� inherent resilience. Crucially, EU pressure helped ensure Mr. Orb谩n鈥檚 Fidesz party could go only so far in bending the electoral system to its advantage. Then, Hungarian democracy did what democracies do: It gave its people a lawful lever to try something new.
An Orb谩n supporter who gave only his first name, B谩lint, was despondent at a Fidesz rally Sunday night, when Mr. Orb谩n conceded far earlier than expected. But he took a wider view.
鈥淚 think democracy is strong in Hungary, and this is democracy,鈥� he said. 鈥淪ometimes we win, sometimes we lose, but we鈥檒l keep fighting.鈥�
The scenes of euphoria on the streets of Budapest Sunday night were heartening to many hoping the election signaled a decisive turn for Hungary toward Europe and away from right-wing populism. But the reality is more complicated.
After all, Sunday鈥檚 winner, P茅ter Magyar, is no left-winger. In European politics, he is expected to join Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk on the EU鈥檚 conservative wing 鈥� embracing the EU but potentially skeptical of liberal reforms on migration or LGBTQ+ rights, for example.
He beat Mr. Orb谩n not by running left, but by capturing the frustration over the country鈥檚 economic prospects 鈥� and the entrenched cronyism that had no answer.
鈥淭he last four years, you can see an economic decline. We鈥檙e literally stuck at 2021 levels,鈥� says R贸bert L谩szl贸, an election expert with Political Capital, a Budapest think tank. 鈥淣ormally, in happy days, people are not worrying about corruption. But when we feel things are not moving forward, in that atmosphere, corruption starts to be really annoying.鈥�
Polling found that only 10% of Hungarians saw the country鈥檚 relationship with Europe as a leading issue, far behind corruption, cost of living, and decaying public infrastructure, said Pawe艂 Zerka, a polling expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations in a webinar Monday.
Many voters may see a return to Europe merely as a way to reestablish economic normalcy, he added. Mr. Magyar will be eager to get 鈧�18 billion ($21 billion) in funds that were frozen when the EU determined Mr. Orb谩n was violating the rule of law through corruption and curtailing press freedom.
Yet it was measures like this that might have made Sunday鈥檚 result possible. EU pressure meant Mr. Orb谩n knew there was a line he could not cross when it came to free and fair elections.
鈥淭he EU does have the power to act and institute guardrails,鈥� said Zsuzsanna V茅gh, a political expert at the German Marshall Fund, during the Monday webinar. 鈥淚f Hungary had not been in the EU, the election could have gone very differently.鈥�
As it was, some voters saw the result as a historic act of independence, on a par with the famous 1956 uprising against Soviet rule, even surpassing the 1990 fall of communism.
Then, the system fell by its own weight. This time, Hungarians themselves rose up and demanded change. In his victory speech, Mr. Magyar said the 鈥減uppets鈥� of the Orb谩n government had to go and Hungary 鈥渨ill no longer be a country without consequences.鈥�
鈥淭he 2026 election result is more significant and fundamental than the political transformations of 1989-90,鈥� says historian Kriszti谩n Ungv谩ry in an email. 鈥淚t is now certain that those responsible for the former system will have to answer for their actions in court.鈥�
Yet there was also a clear foreign element to the sense of liberation 鈥� from Russian President Vladimir Putin and from U.S. President Trump, who sent Vice President JD Vance to Hungary the week before the election in a show of support for Mr. Orb谩n.
Since the January raid in Venezuela, and particularly since the beginning of the Iran war, the calculus within the European far right has begun to change. Mr. Trump, never widely popular in Europe, has increasingly become a political liability. The Hungarian result seems set to confirm that.
Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken of the far-right New Flemish Alliance : 鈥淚鈥檓 a right-wing politician and think the far right is being really stupid. And the MAGAs should really stop campaigning internationally because everyone and everything they support loses the elections.鈥�
鈥淗e said publicly what many on the far right in Europe are saying behind the scenes,鈥� says Dave Keating, a journalist in Brussels and author of the 鈥淕ulf Stream Blues鈥� Substack newsletter on transatlantic relations.
But does it suggest a broader turn against right-wing parties in Europe? Looking at France and Germany, where polls show growing support for such parties, Dr. Zerka of the European Council on Foreign Relations said he doesn鈥檛 see evidence of that.
There, too, he said, it seems voters just want change.
This story was supported by reporting from Budapest, Hungary.
