In Hungary鈥檚 elections, the war in Ukraine looms large
| Gy艖r, Hungary
As Hungarians head toward parliamentary elections on April 12, the war in next-door Ukraine looms large. Posters of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are so ubiquitous across Hungary that one would be forgiven for thinking he is on the ballot.
That鈥檚 because Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n and his ruling Fidesz party are framing the election as a choice: between security and peace under his leadership, or the possibility of Hungary being dragged into the war between Russia and Ukraine 鈥� possibly by seeing its EU-allocated money聽tapped to fund the conflict, or worse, being caught up directly in the fighting if it expands.
鈥淚n 2026, we and only we are capable of saying 鈥榥o鈥� to the Ukrainians, to preserve Hungary鈥檚 peace, security, and the possibility of economic development,鈥� Mr. Orb谩n told a crowd of devoted, flag-waving supporters in Gy艖r, a western industrial hub and key electoral battleground. Many attendees held signs bearing the names of the smaller villages from which they had traveled.
Why We Wrote This
Hungary is going to the polls on April 12, and the future of Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n鈥檚 government looks doubtful. So he鈥檚 turning to a familiar boogeyman on the campaign trail: the war in Ukraine and the danger he claims it poses to his fellow citizens.
鈥淒ear Ukrainians, we will not ruin Hungary for your sake,鈥� the prime minister continued. 鈥淲e will not give up our children, we will not give up our sons, our weapons, and we will not give up our money either!鈥�
Fidesz鈥檚 central campaign argument asserts that Hungary鈥檚 security and economic stability depend entirely on staying out of the war in Ukraine. It leverages a deeply ingrained national narrative of resisting foreign domination, including Soviet rule, by framing Hungarian pushback against demands from Ukraine and the European Union as defensive sovereignty.
But for many voters, Mr. Orb谩n鈥檚 position appears increasingly at odds with reality, and his message just isn鈥檛 getting through to voters beyond the core Fidesz supporter.
鈥淥rb谩n鈥檚 touring is not working so well,鈥� says Stefano Bottoni, a historian who published a biography on the leader. 鈥淢any people who go [to rallies] just go there to whistle or to do catastrophic tourism just to see what happens, like in a movie. Orb谩n [is used to] mastering the masses ... and it is not working anymore.鈥�
Wayward flock?
Hungary has often broken ranks with the EU on support for Ukraine, opposing or delaying both sanctions against Russia and aid packages for Ukraine. It has pushed for a non-escalatory approach with Moscow, a stance shaped in part by Hungary鈥檚 heavy reliance on Russian energy imports. The EU is withholding billions in funds for Budapest due to concerns over rule of law, corruption, and democratic backsliding.
Hungary and Ukraine are also at odds, with the leaders of both nations regularly trading barbs. On Sunday, Mr. Orb谩n and the president of Serbia near a pipeline in Serbia that transports Russian natural gas to Hungary. Mr. Orb谩n said that 鈥渢here was an act of sabotage prepared,鈥� and noted that 鈥淯kraine has been trying for years to cut off Europe from Russian energy,鈥� though he did not directly blame Ukraine for the alleged incident. Ukraine denied any involvement, and said the incident was likely a false-flag operation intended to affect Hungary鈥檚 elections.
Those geopolitical frictions have made the war into a central campaign issue, say observers.
鈥淭he issue of the war is a major theme in the campaign and divides the electorate,鈥� explains 脕goston Mr谩z, chief executive officer at the N茅z艖pont Int茅zet, a Budapest-based, government-affiliated research institute. The institute has forecast victory for Mr. Orb谩n and Fidesz, though many independent pollsters show the public favoring challenger P茅ter Magyar, a conservative and former government insider, and his Tisza Party.
鈥淭hose supporting the governmental party believe that if Magyar becomes prime minister, the new government will give a green light to sending funds and European troops to aid Ukraine,鈥� say Mr. Mr谩z. 鈥淲hereas the voters of the opposition are less aware of this or are clearly backing Ukraine鈥檚 war efforts and its potential EU membership.鈥�
The tension is palpable at campaign rallies. In Gy艖r, faithful Fidesz voters bickered with disenchanted, but cosmopolitan teens who dared boo the ruling party.
鈥淚t is either a Hungarian government or a Ukrainian government,鈥� snapped an older lady dressed in white, denouncing the opposition. 鈥淭isza is the puppet of the Ukrainian government.鈥� She declined to comment further.
Nearby, a man dressed in a full traditional shepherd outfit, made fun of Orb谩n supporters. With a serious face and a slight twinkle in his eye, he told local reporters to keep an eye on his 鈥渇lock,鈥� i.e., Fidesz voters, before saying he was 鈥渧ery disappointed鈥� with Mr. Orb谩n.
A stale strategy
Among those expressing frustration with Mr. Orb谩n was 脕kos, a resident of a nearby Fidesz-voting village who declined to give his last name for fear of reprisals. He expects his neighbors and parents to vote Fidesz, a sign of deep rural and generational divides.
Fidesz remains particularly strong in rural areas and among older voters, especially those over 60. Many in this segment of society have benefited from a range of government policies under Mr. Orb谩n, including generous pension increases, utility price caps, tax breaks for families, and rural development programs.
鈥淸Fidesz鈥檚] message is not credible to us,鈥� insists 脕kos. 鈥淚t鈥檚 the same posters all the time: Brussels, war, hatred. There is no good reason to vote for him. We are biting the hand that is feeding us when we attack Brussels.鈥�
By way of example, 鈥渆ver since Brussels stopped sending funds to Hungary,鈥� 脕kos says, 鈥渞oads are in bad shape.鈥� His village is part of the Hungarian Village Program, a government initiative launched in 2019 to support rural communities. He says the program now produces sloppy repair work, with new layers of pavement laid over old ones, raising roads to the point they overlook peoples鈥� gardens.
But his family does not draw the same link between economic decline and poor relations with Brussels. And security is their chief concern. 鈥淢y parents are actually afraid of war,鈥� he says, shaking his head. 鈥淲hen I try to convince my mother to vote against Orb谩n, she starts crying and saying, 鈥業 can鈥檛 believe I have to hear this from you.鈥欌��
For Mr. Mr谩z, the government strategy remains effective. 鈥溾�榊ou need a strong leadership in turbulent times鈥� is a solid offer,鈥� he says. 鈥漈he real challenge for Fidesz is the potential of protest-voting that is a normal phenomenon in a democracy after 16 years in power. The question is whether Magyar can upscale this and unite all with opposition sentiment behind his own party.鈥�
Dr. Bottoni, the historian, says Mr. Orb谩n鈥檚 fearmongering as a strategy is getting stale. He also sees darker undertones of antisemitism in the campaign鈥檚 harsh focus on Mr. Zelenskyy as the anchor point of broader fearmongering. He recalls previous campaigns against George Soros, a billionaire philanthropist who has long been a target of government-backed messaging in Hungary. While Mr. Magyar is a 海角大神, both Mr. Zelenskyy and Mr. Soros are Jewish.
鈥淭hey are running against Volodymyr Zelenskyy because they can鈥檛 admit the fact that Peter Magyar is untouchable, so they try to harm the guy that some people could still hate in Hungary ... like they did Soros,鈥� Dr. Bottoni says.
In Dr. Bottoni鈥檚 assessment, Mr. Orb谩n is panicking. He points to March 15 as a turning point in the campaign. On that day, rival rallies were held in Budapest to mark the 1848 Revolution. The opposition turnout exceeded that of Fidesz by at least several tens of thousands, according to independent media reports. 鈥淭hat was an alarm bell for Orb谩n.鈥�
Still, loyalty to the prime minister remains firm among many voters.
N茅met Gergely, a 62-year-old farmer and fourth-generation landowner, says his support for Mr. Orb谩n is unwavering. He has voted for Fidesz since its years in opposition in the early 2000s, and remains loyal today. He was among the farmers who came to Gy艖r in polished tractors with light-up signs spelling 鈥淔idesz.鈥�
In his view, Mr. Orb谩n is safeguarding Hungary鈥檚 security from European Union policies, while also strengthening the country鈥檚 economic position by pursuing market opportunities with Russia.
鈥淓veryone tries to exploit us,鈥� he concludes. 鈥淏ut Orb谩n is the best prime minister. There is no one like him. He protects his people until the end.鈥�
