On eve of election, Hungary takes a hard look at Orb谩n鈥檚 鈥榠lliberal democracy鈥�
| Szentendre, Hungary
It might have been a gray, rain-battered evening. But that wasn鈥檛 going to stop potential voters keen to see the man who could unseat Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n, one of the European Union鈥檚 most entrenched and controversial leaders.
Young voters stood alongside curious parents and grandparents, all eager to hear P茅ter Magyar, lawyer and dynamic leader of the Tisza party, as he barnstormed through this riverside town just north of Budapest. A former government insider turned critic, Mr. Magyar represents the most credible threat to Mr. Orb谩n to date.
Mr. Orb谩n and his conservative Fidesz party have been in power since 2010. But a string of scandals, combined with economic pressures driving down quality of life 鈥� and young Hungarians to go abroad 鈥� have left them both on the defensive ahead of Hungary鈥檚 April 12 parliamentary elections.
Why We Wrote This
Viktor Orb谩n has held Hungary's highest office for 16 years, but his tenure has increasingly been characterized by scandal and corruption. Sunday's general elections may be the moment for a dissatisfied electorate to push him from office.
Analysts say the opportunity for change is real. 鈥淭he things that are happening are unprecedented in Hungarian history,鈥� says Bal谩zs Vet艖, an analyst at the Forr谩s Institute for Social Research.
鈥淭he challenger to Fidesz is a movement that hardly existed two years ago, yet now commands a level of support no opposition force has achieved before,鈥� he adds. 鈥滻f this continues, there is a real chance that P茅ter Magyar could win.鈥�
Hungary at a crossroads
Hungary under Mr. Orb谩n has come to define what he himself calls an 鈥渋lliberal democracy.鈥� Observers say the country is marked by widespread corruption and entrenched nepotism, shrinking media freedoms, and a steady consolidation of power.
Since 2010, the Fidesz government has reshaped the electoral system to its advantage. It has redesigned constituency boundaries and installed a single-round, winner-take-all system in Parliament. It has also granted voting rights to ethnic Hungarians abroad.
Despite all this, polling data shows Mr. Magyar鈥檚 center-right Tisza in the lead ahead of the election, with clear margins in every age bracket under 60. That could mean the electoral system designed to favor Fidesz could be turned against it.
Mr. Magyar frames the vote as a choice between East and West, playing on public concerns about a potential Brexit-like departure from the EU. Mr. Orb谩n has repeatedly clashed with Brussels over issues ranging from the rule of law to Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine.
鈥淭his is a referendum,鈥� Bal谩zs T贸thmajor, the Tisza candidate in Szentendre, told 海角大神. 鈥淲e should decide whether we should stay in the EU or choose another option. A lot of youngsters understand that and try to support us.鈥�
A youth movement
Indeed, the party鈥檚 reformist edge is sharpest among younger voters. Surveys show that only 10% to 12% of young voters would back Fidesz, compared with about 60% for Tisza. With nearly half a million first-time voters eligible to vote in a country of just less than 10 million, this age group could prove decisive.
鈥淲hat is very special about Tisza is that they have widespread support among young people,鈥� says Mr. Vet艖. 鈥淲e are talking about young people who grew up under Fidesz but are digitally active and see clearly things are better elsewhere.鈥�
Vince Loky, a 23-year-old who was raised in Szentendre but studies in Budapest, wonders why Hungary, with its high sales taxes, lacks the modern rail and public transport systems found in other European cities, such as Vienna. To get to class, he takes a rundown train into the capital, a daily reminder of the gap.
鈥淚 would vote for this tree, if it means ousting Fidesz,鈥� he says, indicating vegetation nearby as he waits for a train. 鈥淭he only thing [Fidesz] didn鈥檛 ruin is what they didn鈥檛 touch.鈥�
Mr. Loky studied international business economics in English, largely as an exit strategy should Fidesz remain in power. At home, money was tight. His mother, a biologist and teacher, struggled to make ends meet despite working full-time. He took a construction side job while in high school to relieve financial pressures.
His experience reflects broader pressures on the Hungarian economy. Since the pandemic, inflation has surged while wages lag behind Western Europe. Disputes with Brussels have led to the suspension of billions of euros in EU funding for Hungary, limiting investment. Public services have declined under tighter budgets and Hungarians across age groups have noted the decline.
鈥淧eople don鈥檛 want miracles, but normal life,鈥� Mr. Magyar said at the rally in Szentendre. 鈥淭hey want disinfectant in the hospitals, teachers at the schools, and decent roads. The young shouldn鈥檛 have to leave their country.鈥�
Economic frustrations
Mr. Magyar has been tapping into a deep well of economic discontent. In 2024, he took over and rebranded the once-
marginal Tisza party, turning it into a political force.
His reformist message has resonated with disillusioned voters across the political spectrum. Hungarians have grown frustrated with both the ruling Fidesz and a fragmented, ineffective opposition, according to analysts and lay people alike.
鈥淲hen I hear [Mr. Magyar] speak, I tell myself, this is it. This is the guy who can win,鈥� says Suzanne, a sociologist who only gave her first name. 鈥淲herever he goes to campaign, he knows the problems of the local area and has solutions in mind. He has surrounded himself with good advisers.鈥�
Mr. Magyar presents himself as a technocrat. He is credited with recruiting and fielding candidates based on merit, rather than party loyalty. And unlike previous opposition candidates, his conservative background might help him win over older voters, even those who voted for Fidesz in the past.
鈥淢y grandparents are willing to change their vote so my life gets better,鈥� says Reka Vinko, who studied tourism and is frustrated by economic stagnation and lack of employment opportunities. She says her parents are not so accommodating: They flatly tell her to leave the country if she is so unhappy.
Accusations abound
Mr. Magyar has focused on the scandals stalking Fidesz to reinforce the momentum of his campaign. The latest to make waves are allegations, reported by The Washington Post, that Hungarian officials shared sensitive EU information with Russia, as well as claims that Hungarian intelligence services targeted Fidesz鈥檚 political opposition.
But Mr. Magyar鈥檚 own rise is tainted by controversy, too. He shot to fame in 2024 during the fallout from a controversial presidential pardon. Ultimately, both Hungary鈥檚 president and the justice minister at the time resigned amid public outcry.
Mr. Magyar left Fidesz and loudly criticized party leadership 鈥� including the justice minister, who was his ex-wife 鈥� during the scandal. Critics in the Fidesz camp argue that this shows a betrayal of personal and political trust on Mr. Magyar鈥檚 part; Fidesz billboards depict him as a 鈥渢wo-faced man.鈥�
Being heard
Ms. Vinko says she is not entirely sold on Mr. Magyar. But she is still willing to give him a chance and vote accordingly.
Though her parents have always urged her to steer clear of politics to avoid trouble, she joined her friends at a rally for Mr. Orb谩n, hoping it might be one of his last. That impression was reinforced by loud booing at multiple campaign events for the prime minister, even in small towns that have in the past voted for Fidesz.
For Ms. Vinko, it comes down to feeling seen and heard. She chafes against the government鈥檚 view of society that rewards childbearing and leaves little room for women outside traditional roles.
鈥淚f you don鈥檛 have a child, you don鈥檛 count,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 want to have a child in a situation that is so uncertain. I鈥檓 really hoping [Mr. Magyar] wins. If it doesn鈥檛 work out, I want to leave.鈥�
