With Gaza suffering, Europe and Arab states take big diplomatic steps 鈥� together
| Berlin; and Amman, Jordan
This week was years, even decades in the making. Since the Middle East peace process began faltering and certainly since the escalation of the war in Gaza, Europe and the Arab world have each been waiting for the other to act.
Europe demanded that Arab states take a firmer line on reining in Palestinian militant groups. Arab states demanded that Europe recognize Palestinian statehood.
This week, both happened at once. The United Kingdom (along with Canada) joined France in plans to recognize a Palestinian state. Arab states and Turkey declared for the first time that Hamas would have no role in a future nation of Palestine.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onOne of the major obstacles to a Palestinian state has been the lack of trust between Israel鈥檚 European supporters and the Palestinians鈥� backers in the Middle East. But now both are making the hard choices that could reopen a path to peace.
The collaboration was born of crisis. Images of widespread starvation in Gaza have appalled Europeans, strengthening the call for action. And all involved see this as perhaps the last chance to save the rapidly collapsing idea of a two-state solution, with Israel and a future Palestine living peacefully side by side.
Yet the achievement is larger than its strategic calculations. By acting with a new level of trust, a diverse coalition of nations did something significant 鈥� and difficult 鈥� together. It was a diplomatic 鈥渓eap of faith鈥� moment for both Arabs and Europeans.
鈥淭he timing coincided because both Arabs and Western states needed to cross their own lines, go out on a limb together,鈥� said an Arab diplomatic source close to the talks. 鈥淏y making their two limbs touch, they supported one another and prevented fallout.鈥�
Both sides recognize that the two most important parties to any Middle East peace are openly hostile to these moves. Official statements from Israel and the United States have lambasted the recognition of Palestine as a reward for the Oct. 7, 2023, terror attack against Israel. They say it gives Hamas something it wants: its own state.
That is why the Arab states鈥� denunciation of Hamas was crucial.
鈥淭hey are saying that recognition of Palestine is not going to be a reward for Hamas, because Hamas won鈥檛 be part of this at all,鈥� says Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi researcher and fellow at the Gulf International Forum. 鈥淭he Saudis and Arabs are being proactive with their diplomacy and are trying to eliminate every excuse that Israel or the Netanyahu government will reference to not move towards any peace process.鈥�
Isolating the U.S. and Israel
Much of this week鈥檚 activity came at a United Nations meeting in New York. In the so-called 鈥淣ew York Declaration鈥� released early Wednesday, 22 states in the Arab League and Turkey officially condemned Hamas鈥� attack on Israel, putting the suffering of Israeli civilians on equal footing with the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. In an addendum, nine countries that currently do not recognize a Palestinian state said they are moving toward that goal. A key member of that list, Canada, announced plans to recognize a Palestinian state the same day.
In Europe, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Tuesday announced that the U.K. would recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel agreed to take key steps toward peace. France announced its decision last week.
Taken together, these moves intend to signal that the U.S. and Israel are increasingly alone, and that the rest of the world is willing to take bold new steps collaboratively to bring them back to the negotiating table.
Whether the U.S. and Israel will listen is an open question. But Europe is not naive to think it can play a key role in influencing thought. It was Europe that began building momentum toward the idea of a two-state solution in the 1980s 鈥� a decade before the Oslo Accords.
鈥淭his is Europe trying to take back some sense of ownership or action on the issue,鈥� says Timo Stewart, an analyst at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. (Finland was one of the nine countries backing the move toward a Palestinian state.)
Yet most urgent is the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Though the situation in Gaza has been catastrophic for well over a year, new photos have led to a mounting sense of moral outrage in Europe. In explaining the U.K.鈥檚 recognition of a Palestinian state, officials repeatedly referenced the scenes of starvation.
鈥淭his is about the Palestinian people,鈥� British Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander told the U.K.鈥檚 LBC radio. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about those children that we see in Gaza who are starving to death.鈥�
The pressure to act has become immense. 鈥淲ith the starvation in Gaza, as much as Israel is to blame, as much as Hamas is to blame, we are also complicit鈥� as Europeans, says Yossi Mekelberg, an analyst at Chatham House, a security think tank in London.
Crossing their own lines
The images have only added to a mounting desperation. After Israel鈥檚 strikes on Iran鈥檚 nuclear facilities, there was a sense in Europe that 鈥渋t was mission accomplished,鈥� and that 鈥淚srael would now wind down the war in Gaza,鈥� says Burcu 脰z莽elik, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a foreign policy think tank in London. 鈥淭hat has not happened.鈥�
This week suggests Europe鈥檚 thinking is shifting and becoming open to steps it has long hesitated to take. If Israel stays on its current path, for example, embargoes and sanctions could come into play.
The history of many European states makes them sympathetic to Israel鈥檚 desire to ensure its territorial integrity and safety. So 鈥渢here鈥檚 been an unwillingness to use any significant pressure on Israel,鈥� says Dr. Stewart. 鈥淏ut one way you can see this is as taking baby steps toward that.鈥�
The shift in Arab states, too, is considerable. Until recently, large segments of the Arab population saw Hamas as a key resistance movement. Now, their governments have isolated Hamas.
Says Dr. Alghashian: 鈥淭his is actually something very significant, and it is changing at least the diplomatic landscape, if not the actual landscape on the ground.鈥�
