海角大神

Russian and聽U.S. negotiators this week to discuss a danger that has become increasingly urgent in recent years: how to curb the militarization of space.

Unless a new treaty, or at least a general understanding, is soon established, experts say, the future of human activity on 鈥渢he final frontier鈥� is going to look more like Star Wars than Star Trek.

There鈥檚 a lot to talk about. Last week the newly-minted聽U.S. Space Force accused Russia of deploying a 鈥減rojectile weapon鈥� in near-Earth orbit close to a聽U.S. spy satellite. Though nothing was destroyed, the聽United States has been complaining for over a year about Russia鈥檚 use of a maneuverable new breed of 鈥渋nspector鈥� satellites that can spy on聽U.S. satellites and might be employed as weapons.

The Russians, for their part, argue that the聽U.S. has developed elaborate Earth-based weaponry capable of attacking an adversary鈥檚 satellite network in war. Both sides clearly agree that it鈥檚 high time to sit down and at least begin a conversation about it.

鈥淚f this process of weaponizing space gets going, it can lead to a hugely expensive and destabilizing arms race,鈥� says Vladimir Dvorkin, an expert with the Center for International Security at IMEMO, a major Russian research institution under the Russian Academy of Sciences. 鈥淩ight now there are no laws against the deployment of conventional weapons in Earth orbit, either the kind that can hit other objects in space or the kind that can hit the Earth. We really need to sit down and come to an agreement.鈥�

Satellite strategy

The only major international treaty that regulates the militarization of space, , was signed at the dawn of the space age in 1967. It bans the stationing of weapons of mass destruction in Earth orbit, but does nothing to limit that have since proliferated or are under active development. They include spy satellites, electronic warfare platforms, global positioning and targeting systems, missile interceptors, and laser weapons.

The聽U.S. accuses Russia of fielding a new type of vehicle, which is able to scoot around under its own power, spying on other satellites and potentially destroying them. Specifically, the discussion is about Kosmos 2543, which was launched from a larger Russian satellite, Kosmos 2542, in December 2019. The Russians insist that the new vehicle, which has snuggled up to both Russian and聽U.S. satellites since appearing, is just an 鈥渋nspector鈥� satellite whose job is basic reconnaissance. But earlier this month Kosmos 2543 itself disgorged a new object from its body that the聽U.S. Space Force which, firing under its own tiny engine power, could easily be used to destroy another satellite.

鈥淭his is further evidence of Russia鈥檚 continuing efforts to develop and test space-based systems,鈥� said Gen. John Raymond, U.S. Space Force chief of space operations, in an official statement, 鈥渁nd consistent with the Kremlin鈥檚 published military doctrine to employ weapons that hold U.S. and allied space assets at risk.鈥�

The Russians say it鈥檚 just a probe, intended to help the inspection work of the larger vehicle. But it鈥檚 a whole new situation, and it raises a host of questions, says Andrei Baklitsky, a security expert with MGIMO, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

鈥淭his issue is pretty fuzzy,鈥� he says. 鈥淥nce you have something in space that can maneuver with its own engine power, you effectively have a weapon. It doesn鈥檛 take much to knock out a satellite. But, of course, for it to be an actual war-fighting threat you would need to have an awful lot of them already positioned in Earth orbit, not just one.鈥�

The Russian satellite-killer test 鈥� if it was that 鈥� was far from unprecedented. During the Cold War both the聽U.S. and the Soviet Union experimented with ways to destroy enemy space infrastructure, sometimes involving nuclear weapons. After signing the Outer Space Treaty, efforts switched to more targeted methods. In 1985, the聽U.S. using an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile fired from a high-flying F-15 fighter. In 2008, the聽U.S. employed a sea-based Aegis missile defense weapon with hazardous fuel compounds on board, in an operation billed as intended to ensure public safety but criticized for its military implications.

A year earlier China using an ASAT missile, an operation that left large amounts of hazardous debris floating in orbit. India last year.

The rise of Space Force

Russian analysts say that Moscow is deeply worried about the secretive聽U.S. military program in space, which now has an official face in the form of the聽U.S. Space Force, a new branch of the聽U.S. military. Among its missions is the operation of the mysterious X-37B, an unmanned version of the old Space Shuttle.聽The two ships in the U.S. squadron have already had five secret space flights, logging a total of nearly eight years in orbit. The Russians claim that the X-37B does much the same tasks that their Kosmos satellites do, including positioning maneuverable 鈥渋nspector鈥� satellites in Earth orbit.

The Space Force is reportedly for fighting war in space in the next month, something that Russian analysts warn might lead inexorably into a new space arms race.

鈥淩ussia鈥檚 concern isn鈥檛 so much about any particular聽U.S. weapons or activity in space at present,鈥� says Mr. Baklitsky. 鈥淏ut we do worry that now there is a permanent聽U.S. Space Force, and it is producing its own war-fighting doctrine, that we could have an unstoppable process. This renders any effort to find strategic stability on Earth much more complicated.鈥�

At the same time, some Russian analysts fret about the collapse of U.S.-Russian space cooperation, whose heyday was in Cold War times, but which continued until recently in connection with the International Space Station. But Russia has declined to join , which plans to put people back on the moon by 2024. Recently the Russian space agency Roscosmos to allow mining on the moon, even in the absence of any international treaties to regulate it.

Russia has since announced that to build a research station on the moon, a move that will do little to resolve Earthly tensions.

鈥淲hatever else happened, space cooperation was always a shining light, evidence that countries could cooperate for the common good,鈥� says Andrei Ionin, an independent Russian expert. 鈥淪uch projects always played a stabilizing role. But now it seems everyone will go their separate ways when it comes to exploring the moon. Every man for himself is hardly the way to improve international cooperation.鈥�

Editor's note: The original version misidentified the institution at which Andrei Baklitsky works.