With Siberia in flames, climate change hits home for Russia
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Fred Weir Special correspondent
| Moscow
Siberia is burning.
Russia鈥檚 enormous but sparsely populated Asian landmass is experiencing record-breaking temperatures, the fifth year in a row it has done so.
Why We Wrote This
Siberia may be best known for being cold. But this summer, large parts of it are in flames 鈥� a state of affairs that Russian scientists say is a byproduct of climate change, and is likely to end up accelerating the process.
But this year has brought that have devastated a territory the size of the state of Washington, and blanketed vast areas with thick air pollution. Cities that have seldom seen summer temperatures above 70 degrees Fahrenheit have been sweltering under a hot season that began a month early this year, and has been consistently delivering daily temperatures several degrees above average.
Scientists say Siberia is warming at twice the global average 鈥� leading to extreme weather events, severe environmental deterioration, and serious complications for human habitation. And, they warn, it is a climate catastrophe that might be just beginning.
鈥淚f these temperatures repeat themselves next year, the situation on the southern fringe of Siberian forests is going to become critical,鈥� says Nadezhda Chebakova, a researcher at the聽Sukachev Institute of Forest in Krasnoyarsk. 鈥淚n the long run, something has to be done about the emissions of greenhouse gases.鈥�
鈥淯nprecedented鈥� phenomena
The ongoing forest fires are estimated to have so far released 56 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere 鈥� more than the annual emissions of some midsized European countries. And the toxic haze from the fires has reportedly settled over several towns, aggravating health conditions 鈥� and moods 鈥� for many inhabitants who are still under obligatory coronavirus lockdown.
Meanwhile, high temperatures are accelerating the melting of Russia鈥檚 17 million square miles of permafrost above the Arctic Circle. That has caused at least one disastrous industrial accident, and threatens the integrity of the entire region鈥檚 infrastructure, including pipelines, roads, and .
The receding permafrost has exposed copious remains of long-extinct woolly mammoths, frozen for thousands of years beneath the tundra, sparking worries of a new 鈥溾�� to harvest the prehistoric beasts鈥� valuable ivory tusks. But the melting earth also threatens to disgorge huge amounts of greenhouse gases, such as methane, that have been locked in the ice throughout human history, threatening .
The near-complete disappearance of sea ice off Russia鈥檚 northern coast this year has proved an economic boon, with shipping companies predicting that year-round navigation through the once icebound Northeast Passage . For over a decade Russia has been preparing to exploit the vast trove of resources opening up as the Arctic ice pack recedes and has been steadily building infrastructure, including military bases, to promote that effort. But scientists fret that the declining albedo, or reflectivity, of the vanishing ice sheets will only create a positive feedback loop that accelerates the melt-off in coming years.
鈥淭hese phenomena are unprecedented,鈥� says Valentina Khan, deputy director of the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, part of the national weather service. 鈥淲hat we are witnessing is not just a rate of warming over Siberia and the Arctic that鈥檚 two or three times the global average, but changes in atmospheric patterns. There is the likelihood in future of more extreme weather events, which will be greater in their frequency and duration.鈥�
鈥淲e have been warning about this鈥�
A team of international researchers has concluded that this year鈥檚 Siberian heat wave would have been . It鈥檚 a view the Russian government has been slow to accept, but most Russian scientists now admit that it must be deemed a permanent factor.
鈥淲hat we鈥檝e seen here in central Siberia is an absolutely abnormal April, with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius [86 F], and in general temperatures about 2 degrees above the 100-year average,鈥� says Dr. Chebakova. 鈥淚t鈥檚 pretty clear that we are looking at a general warming trend, and 90% of Russian scientists believe it is caused by human activity.鈥�
Environmentalists are beside themselves with dread and frustration.
鈥淲e have been warning about this for at least two decades, and successive Russian governments have failed to take heed,鈥� says Vladimir Slivyak, co-chair of Ecodefense, one of Russia鈥檚 oldest 鈥� and 鈥� environmental organizations. 鈥淣ow it鈥檚 happening, and they are still in denial. Of course there is much more reliable information about global warming and the growing environmental catastrophe in the Russian media than there was 10 years ago, and scientists are talking about it more. But we still don鈥檛 hear much from government officials.
鈥淲hat we need to see, urgently, is the creation of an adaptation plan. Two decades ago, we might have concentrated on reducing greenhouse gases. But now we have a warming process that鈥檚 well underway, and it鈥檚 going to be with us for some time,鈥� he says. 鈥淔or instance, we need proper management of forests, with better fire prevention and firefighting capacities, yet the numbers of people doing these things have been steadily reduced. The main approach in play right now appears to be to wait for autumn, for the rains to come. But what about next year?鈥�
鈥淎 lack of official responsibility鈥�
The government鈥檚 lack of preparedness became clear at the end of May after melting permafrost caused fuel tanks to rupture at a power station belonging to the huge NorNickel mining and smelting company, near the city of Norilsk in Siberia鈥檚 far north. The spill released 20,000 tons of diesel fuel into the soil and nearby rivers, creating what local activists described as an 鈥渆nvironmental catastrophe.鈥� A few days later, President Vladimir Putin in Norilsk, but the damage to the delicate northern ecosystem seems set to persist for decades.
鈥淭he main problem is a lack of official responsibility,鈥� says Vassily Yablokov,聽climate project manager at Greenpeace Russia. 鈥淭he dangers of melting permafrost have been obvious for years. But big business cares only about maintaining the status quo, exploiting nature in profitable ways. So they never invested in prevention. Then they tried to cover up the accident, and failed to act swiftly to contain the damage. That鈥檚 why we can say that the human factor is the key problem here.鈥�
Mr. Slivyak of Ecodefense says the reason for the Russian government鈥檚 reluctance to face and adapt to the realities of long-term climate change is that it would mean calling into question Russia鈥檚 basic economic strategy.
鈥淲e have had the same strategy for the past 50 years, which is to ramp up extraction of fossil fuels, mostly for export,鈥� he says. 鈥淩ussian officials may be learning to talk the talk about climate change at international forums, but whenever issues of economic development come up, the chief goals are always more oil, gas, and coal. They are just not ready to accept that without radical adaptations, this is going to get worse, much worse.鈥�
Editor's note: This story has been updated to correctly characterize the positive feedback loop driven by declining albedo.
