Germany's political middle falls apart. Will Europe's center hold?
| Paris
For decades, the overwhelming majority of German voters stuck loyally to the two centrist parties that have dominated political life since World War II. But familiarity has bred contempt.
October regional elections in the states of Bavaria and Hesse have shown those voters coming unstuck, fanning out instead to non-traditional parties on both right and left. And the shifting allegiances have thrown German politics into unprecedented doubt 鈥� already leading Chancellor Angela Merkel to announce plans to leave Germany's political stage.
But as a long-time bedrock of European stability, a now politically uncertain Germany will cast a shadow over the rest of the continent as well.
Why We Wrote This
For several years, voters across Europe have been breaking with familiar centrists in favor of often radical newcomers. Germans had resisted the phenomenon 鈥� until now. And that could shake the continent up.
Voters' flight from the political middle 鈥渋s a lasting trend that makes Germany similar to its neighbors in Europe,鈥� says Gero Neugebauer, who teaches politics at the Free University of Berlin. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a trend to normalization and we have to get used to it.鈥�
鈥楢 completely redrawn political landscape鈥�
Chancellor Merkel announced Monday she would not stand again for her party鈥檚 leadership in a December vote, and that she would retire from politics when her term of office ends in 2021. She had little choice after the ruling 海角大神 Democrats made their worst showing since 1962 in regional elections in Hesse on Sunday.
Merkel鈥檚 coalition government partner, the Social Democrats, fared even worse, coming in third, with 10 percent fewer votes than in the last elections. The big winners? The moderately progressive Greens, who took 20 percent of the vote, and the far-right, nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which tripled its score to 13 percent.
These results echoed those of earlier regional elections in Bavaria. There, the two leading centrist parties' vote share slumped by 21 percent, while the AfD and Greens' combined vote jumped by 19 percent from the last regional elections.
Overall, this reflects not so much a polarization of the electorate as diffusion, says Jan Techau, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. 鈥淎s society has grown more diverse and fragmented, the political party system has emulated this鈥� in a number of European nations, he points out.
鈥淚n some countries, we see a completely redrawn political landscape,鈥� agrees Morgan Gu茅rin, head of the Europe program at the Montaigne Institute, a Paris-based think tank. 鈥淲here big blocs on the left and right used to dominate 鈥� now four or five parties can win around 20 percent.鈥�
The impact on the German political landscape has been profound. Since general elections in September 2017, uncertainty has overshadowed national political life. It took six months to form a governing coalition which has been dangerously fragile ever since its ministers took office.
And a new government may be needed soon. Speculation is rife in Berlin about how long a weakened Ms. Merkel can remain in her job, and the new electoral math will make it as hard to build the next government as it was to create the current one last year.
Chances are that it will take a three-party coalition, says Mr. Techau, with all the instability that implies 鈥� and all the effort devoted to keeping the government together instead of governing. 鈥淎 time of succession and internal turmoil will mean introspection and a lesser role on the international stage,鈥� he says.
Less time for European policymaking?
And that is not good news for Europe, says Sheri Berman, professor of European politics at Barnard College in New York. 鈥淲ithout Germany as a stable and default leader鈥� in Europe, she says, 鈥渢here are serious questions about the future.鈥�
That鈥檚 because Germany has long been Europe鈥檚 dominant power, however reluctant Merkel has been to play that role. Under her leadership Germany was the decisive player in managing the Greek debt crisis; Berlin was at the vanguard of a strong European reaction to Russia鈥檚 annexation of Crimea, insisting on tough sanctions; and Merkel led the way in welcoming refugees fleeing to Europe in 2015 and 2016.
As a lame duck chancellor now, Merkel will not be able to take such initiatives, further hobbling European policymaking.
鈥淚t is already very difficult to achieve anything among the 27 members [of the EU],鈥� says Mr. Gu茅rin, pointing to persistent disagreements on migration policy as an example. 鈥淭he No. 1 political power in Europe being in a period of introspection will make European politics even more complicated.鈥�
Nor will it be easy to find a successor to Merkel who will match her political skills. 鈥淚t will be tricky to find someone with her nerves of steel and her ability to forge a compromise,鈥� says Techau. 鈥淧eople have found her reliable, predictable, and steady.鈥�
The next leader of Merkel鈥檚 party, whoever that proves to be, will have to decide on fresh policies, and though they are certain to maintain Germany鈥檚 commitment to the European Union, they might well put Germany鈥檚 national interests ahead of a readiness to compromise for the common good, says Dr. Neugebauer.
鈥淎 majority of Germans think we should take care of ourselves first,鈥� he says.
Whether the next government, whoever leads it, will succeed in winning disaffected voters back from the margins is less clear.
鈥淭here is definitely a crisis of confidence in liberal democracy鈥� around the world, says Professor Berman. 鈥淕ermany is part of a wider trend. But liberal democracy鈥檚 health will depend on how parties handle the challenges that voters are concerned with. Can the establishment make its institutions more responsive?鈥�
German voters鈥� flight from traditional establishment parties 鈥渋s inextricably tied to what is happening everywhere else in the world,鈥� says Nathalie Tocci, head of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome. 鈥淲e are going through this wave at a global level.鈥�
鈥淚f it happens in Germany,鈥� long wedded to a stable political center, 鈥渢hen no country is immune,鈥� Dr. Tocci adds. 鈥淏ut that does not mean it鈥檚 game over for democracy.鈥�
