A middle way forward for a divided France? Macron voters hope so.
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| Paris
France has a well-earned reputation for being quick to protest over everything from labor laws to Uber to increasing the age of retirement.
But that's not how聽Quentin Legouy and聽Jeremy Camilleri, supporters of presidential hopeful Emmanuel Macron, see their country.
The pair are convinced that Mr. Macron, who will face Marine Le Pen in France鈥檚 May 7 presidential runoff, and his 鈥淓n Marche鈥 movement will shine a light on a different side of France: a side that pounds the pavement to found startups and seeks a revival in politics.
鈥淭his is the new France, and we spoke,鈥 says Mr. Camilleri, a young engineer, moments after Macron addressed his jubilant base after winning the first round of voting Sunday.
The presidential candidate 鈥 at turns compared to former US President Barack Obama and his message of hope, to Tony Blair鈥檚 centrist New Labour movement, and even the youthful military leader Napoleon Bonaparte 鈥 has inspired a social movement that is convinced that spanning the political spectrum is the best hope for France.
The youthful former investment banker who claims to be neither right nor left also evokes deep skepticism, seen in some of his election posters in Paris this week that were defaced with the words 鈥渦ltrabanker.鈥 But his supporters say if he delivers on his promises, he can reform France and help restore confidence to the country and the European project.
Pierre Boisard, a sociologist of work and social cohesion at ENS Cachan University, says that the French seek reform, but their leaders have failed to light the path to it. 鈥淓veryone wants change, but they are afraid,鈥 he says. 鈥淭he point with Macron is that he鈥檚 pragmatic, he鈥檚 not going to say he wants a grand reform that changes everything. He proposes changes that don鈥檛 scare people.鈥
Perceptions
There was reason to expect any number of outcomes in the first round. On the one hand, Britain鈥檚 vote to leave the European Union and then America's choice of Donald Trump as president pointed at a populist revolt. On the other, Austria elected a pro-European president in December, and right-wing populist Geert Wilders underperformed expectations in the Netherlands in March.
Ultimately, Macron came out over two points ahead of Ms. Le Pen, soothing pro-EU Europeans beyond France, many of whom mingled at Macron鈥檚 election event Sunday. And he currently enjoys a 20-point lead over Le Pen ahead of round two.
Charles O鈥橠onnell, an Irish economist getting his PhD in Paris, says Macron's success so far "is a reminder not to panic, that we鈥檙e still very much together as a European society, to give us some confidence that things are going to be OK.鈥 But he warns it鈥檚 not over 鈥 Macron has neither won nor proven he can do what he says he would do.
He needs to win over a country divided by class and geography. And in an era when Euroskepticism has reigned, even turning many a pro-EU leader Euro-reticent, Macron has come out in unfettered defense of the bloc and its future.
Although the election results pushed out of the runoff both mainstream center-right and -left parties for the first time in the Fifth Republic, Le Pen has tried to paint Macron as a political elitist disguised as a revolution. An 鈥淓n Marche鈥 post-results celebration featuring writers and celebrities at a classy bistro on Sunday night did nothing to dispel the perceptions of elitism and arrogance.
Since Sunday,聽Macron has been congratulated across European capitals. Earlier this month he received a phone call from Mr. Obama. Macron has received the backing of the mainstream players, including French President Fran莽ois Hollande.
For foes, it feeds into the idea that he鈥檚 just 鈥淗ollande-bis鈥: an encore of the current president and a continuation of the status quo.
A finder of consensus?
Macron is said to be inspired by an Anglo-Saxon spirit, putting particular emphasis on entrepreneurism. A fluent English speaker, he says French people 鈥渟hould revel in success.鈥 At a campaign stop in Toulon earlier this year, he said France has 鈥渂ecome a country that is afraid to dare.鈥
Yet he seeks this for France within the protection of the welfare state the way Nordic countries have organized their economies.
His platform has been called vague, and its left-right nature is unfamiliar 鈥 and risky 鈥 in a French context. 脡douard Lecerf, global director of political opinion and research at Kantar Public in Paris, has compared him to the egg required in the emulsification of vinegar and oil to make mayonnaise.
鈥淗e鈥檚 aggregating things that come from the left and right,鈥 Mr. Lecerf said at a meeting with the Anglo-American Press Association in Paris ahead of the first round. 鈥淵ou have to keep whipping for it to take shape鈥. If you put a little too much of one or the other at one time, it will start to turn.鈥
Among his proposals, he wants more welfare for the worst off, but wants to reduce public spending, getting the budget deficit to under 3 percent as the EU requires. He says he can get unemployment down to 7 percent from its current 10 percent. He wants to shed 120,000 state jobs, reduce the size of government, and make France鈥檚 famously rigid labor market more flexible.
Mr. Boisard says he believes Macron is better poised to carry out reform than his predecessors, who faced crippling protests that left economic structures largely unmoved. 鈥淗e鈥檚 pragmatic,鈥 Boisard says.
Instead of saying he鈥檒l overhaul the labor system, for example, Macron proposes to extend unemployment benefits for workers who choose to leave their jobs. Many stay in them unhappily and unproductively for fear they鈥檒l have nothing if they leave.
And Mr. Legouy, the 鈥淓n Marche鈥 volunteer, says by adopting policies on the right and left, Macron could introduce to France the kind of consensus that is a hallmark of the 鈥済rand coalitions鈥 that have become common, for example, in Germany.
鈥淢aybe it鈥檚 the best way to get the best of France,鈥 he says. 鈥淚 think French people are bored by left, right, left, right. We have to do what is best for France.鈥
Favorite by default
Formidable challenges lie ahead for him.
Despite the optimism of his Sunday night victory gathering 鈥 filled with young people, many of them exceedingly well-dressed 鈥 he didn鈥檛 get the most votes among young people ages 18 to 24. That age bracket went first to Mr. M茅lenchon, followed by Le Pen. And the race revealed a streak of defiance in the French electorate, with over 40 percent of votes going to both the far-right and far-left.
Much of Macron鈥檚 rise has come down to luck 鈥 the woes of the ruling classes and in particular the corruption charges that engulfed center-right candidate Fran莽ois Fillon, who was once the clear frontrunner.
Thomas Gu茅nol茅, a professor of politics at Sciences Po in Paris, says Macron is rallying 鈥渉appy France,鈥 which could ultimately leave the country more divided.
鈥淢acron is a champion of the part of the French population that doesn鈥檛 have serious problems in life,鈥 Mr. Gu茅nol茅 says.
If he wins and attempts his reform package, it could lead to even more digging in of heels 鈥 and some fear could even pave the way to a future Le Pen victory. Implicit in the personal comparisons to Mr. Blair and Mr. Obama is the reality of both Britain and the US today: the Labour Party is in shambles as Britain prepares to leave the EU, while Mr. Trump followed Obama into the White House.
Roland Freudenstein, director of policy at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in Brussels, says that he hopes the 鈥渘ewcomer aura鈥 that currently surrounds Macron will, if he鈥檚 elected, open space and confidence for the structural reforms that France needs, and that the EU needs of France. He says there is still a huge gap between the optimism of his movement and the hard choices implicit in reforming a country.
But he also says he believes that Macron, if adept at crossing political lines, is the best hope for a 鈥渙nce-in-a-half century chance to actually seriously reform France.鈥