海角大神

Margaret Malcolm stands on the doorstep of a suburban house on the north side of Glasgow, pen and clipboard in hand. 鈥淗ave you decided how you are going to vote in the referendum?鈥� she asks the elderly bespectacled man who answers the door.

鈥淚鈥檓 still making up my mind, to be honest,鈥� he says, his hand resting on the door latch. 鈥淚鈥檓 still not sure.鈥�

Heading back down the garden path, Ms. Malcolm, a retired psychiatrist, assesses the likelihood that the man will vote for Scottish independence. A ten is a certain yes; zero a guaranteed no. She marks down a six. This score means his pebble-dashed house will get another visit from independence activists before Scotland goes to the polls on Sept. 18.

The future of Scotland could hang on the outcome of such visits. For months, the 鈥淣o鈥� campaign has held a significant lead, to the relief of British politicians in London. But that advantage has been erased: Recent polls neck and neck.

Now as the battle for Scotland enters its final days, the key fight is increasingly which side can most effectively get the vote out. A recent opinion poll suggested turnout among registered voters could be as high , almost double that of the last Scottish parliamentary election in 2011. Turnout in Britain's 2010 general election was 65 percent.聽

For the past two years, Yes Scotland, the pro-independence side, has fed information collated from doorstep canvasses from thousands of activists like Margaret Malcolm into a database called YesMo. Nationalists say this software gives them the edge in targeting potential supporters and getting them to the polling stations.

The 鈥淵es鈥� camp has a huge numerical advantage in terms of local activists, many of whom are new to politics. However, their rivals can draw on the experience of Britain鈥檚 main political parties, all of which oppose independence. The Labour Party, Conservative Party, and Liberal Democrats have lined up behind Better Together, the official 鈥淣o鈥� campaign.

Divisions in unionist camp

Internal friction has marred the 鈥淣o鈥� camp. The loudest voice in it belongs to the Labour Party, the opposition in Britain鈥檚 parliament to Prime Minister David Cameron鈥檚 coalition. Labour has long been the dominant electoral force in Scotland, where Mr. Cameron鈥檚 Conservative Party typically does poorly at the polls. But聽analysts聽say Better Together鈥檚 stress on the economic uncertainty of an independence vote plays poorly among working-class Labour voters. And some Labour activists have refused to work with rival Conservatives.

But with less than ten days to go, Labour鈥檚 formidable political machine could prove vital. 鈥淲e are down to the ugly 鈥榙rugs-raid style鈥� politics,鈥� says one activist. "It鈥檚 calling to people鈥檚 door (asking) 鈥橦ave you voted?鈥� If they haven鈥檛, calling back an hour later and physically bringing them to the polling station.鈥�

A high turnout is widely seen as benefiting the 鈥淵es鈥� campaign, which has focused on what it calls 鈥渢he missing millions鈥� 鈥� Scots who don鈥檛 normally vote or aren鈥檛 on the electoral roll. Polls suggest that in working-class districts of towns and cities, a majority favor independence, in contrast to middle-class voters more swayed by unionist arguments.

鈥楾he 鈥榊es鈥� side reckons that many of these extra votes will be cast by less well-off and strongly disillusioned voters who are attracted by the prospect that independence might bring about radical change,鈥� says John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow.聽