In Argentina midterms, a make-or-break referendum on the Milei revolution
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| Buenos Aires, Argentina
Carlo Barroso stands at the wide-open glass doors of the Supertienda Onze men鈥檚 clothing store, flanked by brightly lit showcases displaying the latest polos, jeans, and shorts for spring.
The sidewalk in front of the salesman鈥檚 shop in the Argentine capital鈥檚 Onze neighborhood is busy, but few passers-by stop to peruse the sartorial fare. Even fewer enter the store.
鈥淲hat can we expect, there is no money,鈥� says Mr. Barroso, quoting 鈥� consciously or not 鈥� Argentina鈥檚 libertarian economist president, Javier Milei. The shaggy-haired iconoclast entered office two years ago saying he had no choice but to chainsaw the state and slash a generous but bankrupting social safety net, because 鈥�No hay plata鈥� 鈥� There is no money.
Why We Wrote This
Argentina votes Sunday in midterm legislative elections that serve as a report card for President Javier Milei鈥檚 economic policies. He tamed inflation, but now the economy is stalled, many are worse off, and corruption has emerged as an issue.
On Sunday, Argentina holds national legislative elections that many political analysts and economists say could buoy or sink the Milei revolution. The president appears to be hoping that voters will consider his crowning achievements 鈥� taming crushing inflation and balancing the budget 鈥� enough of a reason to give him a supportive Congress to allow his reform agenda to proceed.
It鈥檚 a big ask. Even the brash Mr. Milei acknowledges with some uncharacteristic contrition that many are worse off owing to his disruption of a coddling state that dates back seven decades to the paternalist-populist Juan Per贸n.
鈥淚t鈥檚 true the situation is tough. I never said it would be easy,鈥� he said in a television interview this month. But 鈥淚鈥檓 asking Argentines 鈥� to not give up, because we鈥檙e halfway there.鈥�
An aversion to inflation
The president鈥檚 hopes may lie with voters like Mr. Barroso, who says that despite the lifeless economy, Mr. Milei has done enough good to deserve more time.
鈥淗e started out with a bang, but he lost the momentum and everything stalled,鈥� he says, leaning on a rack of $5 T-shirts. 鈥淗e needs more support to get things going again, so that鈥檚 how I鈥檒l vote.鈥�
Mr. Milei can鈥檛 expect much more enthusiasm than that, some analysts say, but what gives him a chance is a stronger refusal to return to the high-inflation populist past.
鈥淧eople have lost the patience they initially extended to Milei,鈥� says Ignacio Labaqui, senior analyst with Medley Global Advisors in Buenos Aires. But at the same time 鈥渢here is still a very strong anti-Per贸nist sentiment,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hat explains why Milei hasn鈥檛 faced a backlash even though he has lost the enthusiasm he once enjoyed.鈥�
Indeed, he says, Sunday鈥檚 outcome could depend on how a widely downbeat electorate chooses between two unenticing paths.
The campaign has rolled out with an unusual and 鈥� for some Argentines 鈥� intriguing feature: the full-throated support for Mr. Milei from U.S. President Donald Trump. That鈥檚 backed by a $20 billion U.S. Treasury currency rescue package clearly aimed at improving the Argentine leader鈥檚 electoral prospects.
Mr. Trump is so intent on aiding his closest ideological ally in the hemisphere that he is pledging to quadruple imports of Argentina鈥檚 iconic beef 鈥� even though he says its purpose is to lower U.S. beef prices.
Yet despite the brouhaha over what some here see as unacceptable Yankee interference in a sovereign nation鈥檚 affairs, the campaign has remained an in-house affair and a kind of midterm referendum on Mr. Milei.
Stalled economy, tarnished image
Just a few months ago, most analysts assumed Mr. Milei would cruise to a solid victory Sunday and benefit from a supportive Congress to pursue labor and retirement system reforms. But then the economy stalled and corruption charges dominated headlines, changing the outlook.
鈥淢ilei was clearly on a roll, but over the last five or six months we鈥檝e seen a tarnishing of his image,鈥� says Tom谩s M煤gica, a political scientist at Argentina Catholic University in Buenos Aires. 鈥淗e鈥檚 lost people hurt by his reforms, and others now associate him with the corruption he promised to defeat, so his pathway to a win is much narrower now.鈥�
Some early supporters say they are too disappointed to give the leader who once caught their imagination a second chance.
鈥淢ilei had very good ideas, which is why I voted for him, but then he carried them out poorly,鈥� says Tamara Basueldo, a human resources analyst for a Buenos Aires insurance company.
Enjoying an afternoon break in the warm sun, she says she was drawn to Mr. Milei鈥檚 promise to root out what he dubbed 鈥�la casta,鈥� the country鈥檚 entrenched and 鈥渃orrupt鈥� political class.
鈥淏ut instead he went against the people,鈥� she says, noting he 鈥渃ut so many people鈥檚 social benefits without delivering anything to replace them, like more jobs. I can鈥檛 support that,鈥� she adds, 鈥渟o in the election I鈥檒l be turning left.鈥�
A sense that Mr. Milei has not only failed to deliver on his promise to slay 鈥�la casta,鈥� but has delivered corruption scandals of his own, may end up being what hurts him the most, some analysts say.
鈥淲ith inflation down from higher than 200% annually to a more tolerable rate somewhere below 30%, I think people were ready to give the economic reforms more time,鈥� says Lucia Vincent, a political scientist at San Martin National University. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 the corruption question that pushed many over the edge.鈥�
Mr. Milei raised eyebrows early this year when a questionable cryptocurrency scheme he promoted on social media collapsed, resulting in huge losses for investors and a new 鈥渃ryptogate鈥� tag for the anti-corruption president. Then, his politically powerful sister Karina Milei was accused of taking bribes from a government medicine supplier.
鈥淧eople who voted him in saying, 鈥楬e may be crazy, but he鈥檚 not corrupt,鈥� are now saying, 鈥業nstead of ridding us of la casta, it鈥檚 more of the same,鈥欌�� Dr. Vincent says.
Praise for stability
Mr. Milei鈥檚 most enduring support may be coming from sectors like small-business owners and farmers, whose top priority is to keep Argentina on the economic reform path they believe only he can follow.
At the Ramos Pastas family-owned shop in Avellaneda, a working-class provincial town across the Matanza River from the capital, Patricia Ramos offers her reasons for supporting Milei 鈥� and why she hopes what he鈥檚 accomplished so far is only the beginning.
鈥淗e鈥檚 brought a stability to the economy that can serve as the foundation for getting our beautiful Argentina working and producing again,鈥� she says. 鈥淗e told us it would be rough, and he didn鈥檛 lie. But he鈥檚 also done things that tell me he can do even more if he has a chance.鈥�
Take inflation. Standing next to a case of all manner of family-recipe pastas, Ms. Ramos relates the awe she experienced recently when she realized the can of food she was buying for her two cats was the same price she had paid a year ago.
鈥淭hat may sound silly to you,鈥� she says, 鈥渂ut for us it鈥檚 a small miracle.鈥�
She鈥檒l vote for the Milei-aligned candidate Sunday not simply in recognition of that, but in support of the labor and retirement system reforms Mr. Milei has on his to-do list.
鈥淚鈥檝e worked in this business since I was a little girl, so I don鈥檛 understand the people who want everything given to them,鈥� she says. 鈥淚f Milei says we need to raise the retirement age to keep the economy stable, I can live with that.鈥�
鈥淗e鈥檚 only for the rich鈥�
Ms. Ramos whispers her support for Mr. Milei, noting that the town consistently votes Per贸nist.
Indeed, not two blocks down the street from Ramos Pastas in a well-kept town square, mother Silvia Pereira and daughter Belen Nieva discuss how their lives have only gotten more difficult under Mr. Milei.
鈥淚 know people complain that too many in Argentina don鈥檛 want to work, but in my case I鈥檝e had to take on another job to try to get by,鈥� says Ms. Nieva, a nursery school teacher who has added hair-cutting and weekend bartending to her repertoire.
She鈥檚 taken on the new jobs to try to make up for the lost subsidies for her two little girls and for a monthly electricity bill that skyrocketed when Mr. Milei removed energy subsidies.
鈥淭his president is proving he鈥檚 only for the rich, he鈥檚 not for the poor,鈥� says Ms. Pereira, as she keeps an eye on her two granddaughters playing in the sun.
The proprietor of a candy and soda kiosk, Ms. Pereira says she used to do fine, and could even afford an occasional beach vacation, because people in the neighborhood had pocket change to spend.
But no more. 鈥淢ilei came in, and now, 鈥�No hay plata,鈥欌�� she says. There is no money. 鈥淲hy would I vote in favor of that?鈥�
