海角大神

As the campaign for the Hungarian election officially kicks off today, a coalition of leftist parties is vowing to oust conservative Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n in a race where the opposition says the return of fundamental human rights is at stake.

But despite growing criticism in Hungary of the ruling Fidesz party, which has clashed with the European Union over constitutional changes that it has rammed through parliament with its two-thirds majority, the coalition faces a difficult task. Between lagging poll numbers and questions over the unity of the parties, the alliance is trailing in early polls for the Apr. 6 election.

The latest Ipsos poll shows 33 percent of decided voters support the alliance 鈥� a partnership of five parties: the Socialists, Egy眉tt-PM, the Democratic Coalition (DK), and the Liberal party 鈥� compared to 51 percent for Fidesz. The far-right Jobbik party has 13 percent.

The coalition, led by Socialist leader Attila Mesterh谩zy, says its support is underrepresented because people are afraid to tell pollsters they oppose the ruling party, pointing to the large number of undecided voters as evidence. However, as the election nears, the number of undecided or uncommitted voters is dropping and the opposition鈥檚 support appears stagnant.

Despite a weak economy and allegations of Fidesz corruption over the past year, the alliance has been unable to attract voters from the ruling party.

The coalition has been criticized for not offering new leadership, as both Gordon Bajnai, the head of Egy眉tt-PM, and Ferenc Gyurcs谩ny, leader of DK, are former prime ministers. Mr. Orb谩n himself was prime minister between 1998 and 2002 before being re-elected in 2010.

Mr. Gyurcs谩ny, who was embroiled in a political scandal in 2006 and resigned in 2009, remains a very divisive figure in Hungarian politics.

Socialist parliamentarian Istv谩n J贸zsa says his party鈥檚 management is full of 鈥測oung people and new faces鈥� and the criticisms of Mr. Bajnai and Gyurcs谩ny are part of 鈥渢he negative campaign that was created and led by Fidesz.鈥�

He says the parties are united by their goal to reinstate democracy and fundamental human rights in the country, which have been damaged by the current government.

Gerrymandering?

The alliance will also face an uphill battle because of a new election law introduced by the government in 2011. Experts say it seriously disadvantages opposition parties by strategically redrawing electoral districts to benefit Fidesz, with right-leaning districts outnumbering left-leaning ones.

The government denies these claims, saying in an email the new districts are more equally divided than before and 鈥渘o unusually shaped districts are to be found, raising no suspicion of gerrymandering.鈥�

The law also eliminated the two-round voting system that required a party to win at least 50 percent of the votes in an individual constituency in order to win the seat. In the new single-round system, the party with the most votes wins the constituency.

This means small parties risk splitting the vote and handing the election to the largest party 鈥� in this case Fidesz 鈥� unless they unite with the opposition.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 why you鈥檝e seen the opposition trying frantically to form a coalition in which the democratic opposition only puts up one candidate in each district,鈥� Kim Lane Scheppele, a Hungarian constitutional law expert and Princeton professor, told journalists in Budapest. 鈥淏ecause unless they do that, it鈥檚 almost inevitable that Fidesz wins.鈥�

Ms. Scheppele said the new law was 鈥渄esigned for this election鈥� and pointed out that under the old system, every incumbent government since the democratic transition was thrown out of office, except in 2006.

'Better than the best Orb谩n regime'

At a recent rally against a nuclear deal Orb谩n signed with Russian President Vladimir Putin in January, voter D谩vid Fodor said he will vote for the coalition because he wants Orb谩n out of office. The deal, which provides Hungary with Russian financing worth 10 billion euros ($13.7 billion) for the upgrade of a nuclear power plant, has become a key campaign issue. Some see it as a sign of Hungary鈥檚 move towards the east and away from its Western allies.

鈥淔our years ago, Hungary was a European democracy, now it鈥檚 not,鈥� Mr. Fodor says.

However, Fodor, a supporter of Egy眉tt-PM, is not enthusiastic about the Socialists and Mesterh谩zy. 鈥淚 could imagine a better coalition and a better government in the future, but now this is the [only] real alternative,鈥� he says.

This divided loyalty could be a problem for a coalition that needs as much support as it can get. And whether the alliance can stay together if elected is a significant concern, especially as a large majority appears out of reach.

鈥淚f they have just a [small] advantage over Fidesz, I鈥檓 pretty sure they will start arguing and the conflicts become more harsh among these parties,鈥� says R贸bert L谩szl贸, election specialist for think-tank Political Capital. 鈥淚t would be very, very challenging to govern the country for them.鈥�

But coalition members know that a fractured leftist government could create an opportunity for Orb谩n to recapture power. Without cooperation, the parties will be unable to restore democracy and 鈥済et rid of Orb谩n,鈥� says Szabolcs Ker茅k-B谩rczy, a member of the DK who is running for parliament in central Budapest.

鈥淣o matter how many debates, quarrels, and bad feelings we鈥檝e had," he says, "we have to cooperate because we know the worst democratic alliance is much better than the best Orb谩n regime.鈥�