Hungary seeks new voters abroad to shape elections at home
| Budapest, Hungary
Hungary's next national election could be influenced by voters who have never lived here. And the ruling party is counting on that working in its favor.
For the first time, ethnic Hungarians living abroad will have the right to vote in Hungary鈥檚 national elections next year.
The government says that 480,000 people have applied for citizenship, and thousands have registered to vote, after a 2010 law allowed non-residents with Hungarian ancestry to become citizens and participate in national elections.
Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n is betting these new citizens will support his Fidesz party. The government鈥檚 populist, nationalist message includes frequent reminders to a policy of uniting ethnic kin that live beyond Hungarian borders.
Although Mr. Orb谩n聽has repeatedly clashed with the European Union and civil society groups in Hungary over his sweeping legislative changes 鈥� which critics say undermine democracy 鈥� he is overwhelmingly popular among Hungarians in neighboring countries.
Foreign as domestic
The largest Hungarian minority groups reside in neighboring countries, including Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Ukraine. Regions within these countries were part of the large Austro-Hungarian empire, before a post-World War I treaty divided that territory up.
Ukraine and Slovakia do not allow for dual citizenship but Romania and Serbia will contribute tens of thousands of new voters to a country with an electorate of 8 million.
And polling indicates those voters could be solidly in Fidesz's corner. Eighty percent of those eligible to vote in Transylvania 鈥� where many of Romania鈥檚 1.2 million ethnic Hungarians reside 鈥� said they would support Fidesz in a recent poll.
Government officials have been courting these voters by backing ethnic Hungarians鈥� battle for more autonomy in Romania. In February, a brief diplomatic row between the two nations broke out over the Hungarian community鈥檚 display of its own flag, which Romanian authorities objected to.
Fidesz鈥檚 popularity is also boosted by a deep skepticism of the opposition Socialists. Many still resent the party for being in power during an unsuccessful referendum in 2004 on whether to grant non-residents citizenship.
鈥淚n the mass electorate [in Romania], the perception is that the Hungarian left has betrayed us,鈥� says Istv谩n Sz茅kely, researcher at the Romanian Institute for Research on Ethnic Minorities. Ethnic Hungarians believe Orb谩n聽鈥渨as the one who gave us the status law, [Orb谩n] was the one who gave us dual citizenship, while the left has done nothing for us.鈥�
To secure its power base, Fidesz is strengthening its ties to Hungarian political parties abroad.
In April, investigative journalism website Atlatszo reported that Fidesz indirectly funded Hungarian parties in Romania, including the Hungarian People鈥檚 Party of Transylvania (EMNP). The EMNP says the report was politically motivated.
鈥淔idesz and Viktor Orb谩n [are] very popular in Transylvania,鈥� says Zolt谩n Sipos, who conducted the investigation and is deputy editor of the Transylvanian news portal Transindex. Fidesz has long supported Hungarian parties in this region, he says.
Untapped voters
Many Hungarians outside the country鈥檚 borders have waited for decades to become citizens, says 脕gnes聽Dobrotka, a dual-citizen Hungarian from Serbia鈥檚 Vojvodina region.
Almost everyone from her community has also applied for citizenship, she says, and many of them will back the party that granted them this right: Fidesz.
Ms. Dobrotka intends to vote in 2014. But she is not sure who she will support. 鈥淢ost of [the people] who have applied for citizenship, they really want to vote as well. If they have a right to vote, they will go and vote,鈥� Dobrotka says.聽谩
Based on estimates, Mr. Sz茅kely predicts dual citizens could add about 150,000 votes to the electorate.
Fidesz has a significant lead in the polls, with support among 49 percent of decided voters, compared to 26 percent for the Socialists, according to an Ipsos poll last month. However, almost half of all voters are undecided, casting doubt on whether Fidesz can carry this lead into the spring election.
And even if ethnic Hungarians do not sway the results of the 2014 election, Fidesz could be preparing the ground for future tight races. The party lost the 2006 election by less than 100,000 votes and the 2002 election by an equally narrow margin. If history repeats itself with a similar close result, Hungarians abroad could tip the scale in Orb谩n鈥檚 favor.
A wildcard abroad
Although Fidesz is a clear favorite among this segment, another community of Hungarians abroad could be a wildcard in the election. Expats who left Hungary in the past decade, mainly for work, are estimated to total 500,000.
But less is known about their political affiliations. Having witnessed Hungary鈥檚 economic decline in recent years, they may be harder for Fidesz to win over.
While dual citizens are able to vote by mail, Hungarian expats must vote in person at an embassy or consulate in their host countries, which could decrease their turnout. Critics say this indicates Fidesz鈥檚 preferential treatment for dual citizen voters.
The government will review this system after the election and 鈥渕ake it more unified,鈥� says Zsolt聽N茅meth, the state secretary for foreign affairs.
He predicts non-residents will have a 鈥渞elatively small influence on the Hungarian election.鈥� They could impact the fate of only one to three seats in parliament out of 199, he says.
